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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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Math23x7
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:46 am

@jmanley32 wrote:like ur thinking ace, and i am not even totally coast somewhat nw of 95 but not a lot, going to be a close call unless it stays way west.
That was just verbatim off the NAM. Temps where mid 30s

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:53 am

So still we have model mayhem on track and strength
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:58 am

FWIW, 12z NAM Snowfall
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Hires_13
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 10368810
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:34 am

12z GFS rolling. Hour 36 southern stream energy is stronger and more consolidated. Trough about the same, flow ahead is marginally more N/S

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:35 am

Third piece of energy is also weaker

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:37 am

Stronger and slightly west of 00z

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:40 am

Ok, it's in the same spot as 00z. Idk what I was looking at lol certainly stronger, though

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:40 am

Ticked east. Going to be a BM track
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:44 am

Yeah, you're right. Ever so slightly. Gonna be interesting to see how the rest of today's models evolve, that's for sure

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:45 am

Areas to the far NW get cutoff big time
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:50 am

Yeah, something about that precip shield just doesn't look right to me.....

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:54 am

12z GFS para is also a benchmark track. Warm for the coast but dryer to the north and west of the city.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:57 am

The lack of dynamics is going to screw the NYC area. The phase is disorganized so the layers do not cool enough. Iv'e already mentioned this air mass is not cold enough in November. I think I have a pretty solid idea of how this is going to play out. May release my snow map and official forecast sooner, perhaps around 3pm instead. Areas west and north of NYC can expect a moderate snowfall. Travel is going to be rough. Full forecast with snow map, timing, impacts, etc...to come later.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:00 am

12 GFS
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Gfs_6h12
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Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:07 am

12z GFS has 850's below 0 at hour 54 with surface temps in the low to mid 30s for NYC. I think NYC sees snow on Wednesday. Question is how much.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:07 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The lack of dynamics is going to screw the NYC area. The phase is disorganized so the layers do not cool enough. Iv'e already mentioned this air mass is not cold enough in November. I think I have a pretty solid idea of how this is going to play out. May release my snow map and official forecast sooner, perhaps around 3pm instead. Areas west and north of NYC can expect a moderate snowfall. Travel is going to be rough. Full forecast with snow map, timing, impacts, etc...to come later.

Models aren't that warm for NYC. People underestimated the warm with the Nov 2012 event.
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:09 am

YUCK
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Stormt10
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 20 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:12 am

@Snow88 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The lack of dynamics is going to screw the NYC area. The phase is disorganized so the layers do not cool enough. Iv'e already mentioned this air mass is not cold enough in November. I think I have a pretty solid idea of how this is going to play out. May release my snow map and official forecast sooner, perhaps around 3pm instead. Areas west and north of NYC can expect a moderate snowfall. Travel is going to be rough. Full forecast with snow map, timing, impacts, etc...to come later.

Models aren't that warm for NYC. People underestimated the warm with the Nov 2012 event.

It's not that they are warm, it is that the southern stream essentially is our storm. The system does not undergo deepening until it is in New England and by then most of the precip is out of here. It's a sloppy looking H5 with no blocking or High to the north. It is a pretty awful set-up for accumulating snow, but we probably will get some. Our first of the season. Which is good enough for November.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:22 am

P.S. I want to see snow more than anyone, but there has to be a line drawn between being realistic and issuing an accurate forecast than trying to get all your hopes up only to be failed. I lose credibility. Especially from my mother. She already thinks I am nuts.

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:23 am

haha, Frank, my neighbors plow and they keep asking me if they should get the plows ready and i'm so torn on what to tell them. Any thoughts from you?
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:24 am

Intersting thought by Johnathan Carr on FB Frank.

"It's hard to hold your forecast ground through the easterly bias of the GFS in the long range and then the ECM westerly/amped bias in the mid-range. Lets keep something in mind though...this sub 980mb storm over the lakes is the key primary driver of today's warm temperatures. For all the warmth it's pulling up from the south, it's also pulling cold down on the backside with equal energy. With that being said...the warmer today is, the colder and stronger the Wednesday temp crash will be.
Given that the secondary coastal is almost a natural derivative (energy-wise) of the primary lakes low now...that is why I'm leaning with more of a ECM ENS/GFS track over the ECM OP"

Frank also look at the HP over the N Plains/S Canada by hr 54 on the GFS, It is a strong 1035+mb HP that is building east over the top of this storm as it passes the DelMarVa and to the BM by hr 60. The other thing I have noticed is the weak LP on the GFS by hr 54-60 is much further south over the Tenn valley. Prev when the coastal was modeled around the delmarva/BM latitude that weaker LP was being modeled up by the GL. With it further south it seems to effectively open a gate for some colder air to come into the back side of this thing quicker. At least as per the GFS. The key will be todays 12z Euro look. if it comes east and that secondary LP is in a similar position in the Tenn valley and that HP is building in watch out. Because honestly I think the models are underestimating the LP intensity as it approaches the BM as it has done all season so far.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:26 am

@aiannone wrote:haha, Frank, my neighbors plow and they keep asking me if they should get the plows ready and i'm so torn on what to tell them. Any thoughts from you?

Maybe salt trucks. Not thinking a plow is necessary out on the Island right now.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:27 am

Also after today we will have to start really looking at the SR models instead of the Md/LR guidance to iron out the finer details

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:27 am

Meteorologist on Americanwx
"Yup, this is a very dangerous forecast scenario near the coast, the boundary layer is borderline but the wind direction is good, any sort of heavy precipitation rates and its going to be snow...I'm glad I'll be off and not forecasting this one."
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:29 am

Im not posting snow map until tomorrow

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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