11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
+25
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
HEATMISER
Sharon L
carvin1079
mako460
oldtimer
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Sunflowers138
rb924119
docstox12
algae888
Snow88
aiannone
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devsman
CPcantmeasuresnow
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NjWeatherGuy
Quietace
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
amugs
Frank_Wx
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
This system is loaded with moisture on the GFS
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
amugs wrote:Here we go from NWS MT Holly!! Even if it doesn't snow holy crap it is going to cause a myriad of problems- getting my snow weenie excitement up and blood flowing! Just got in from a great dinner with great friends and two bottle so cab vino - holy hannas reading this this far out by NWS IMO. Not etched in stone but wowza!!
I am just sayin' to my fellow snow weenies that if this storm verifies I keep my snow weenie crown! until 2015-16
mt holly talking naughty
WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.
IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. - last time was ?? SANDY!!
Woah. Some strong language in there for a generally conservative wx office. So excited/anxious to see the 00z suite.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
0z Para is still a miss lmfao
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
ooz gfs much faster. has precip falling from mid morning ending early evening. temps def to warm for snow. looking at h5 ridge is sharper in west and trough sharper however interaction of s/w looks better on 18z.
18z
00z
18z
00z
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
actually everything looks better on tonights gfs up to 00z weds then trough flattens out on wens
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
GGEM is further east than 12z
http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif
http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
well i'm off to bed to tired to wait up for euro. anyway models will get a better handle on this by Mondays 12z's. these next few runs could be all over the place.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Finally I'm home. Still not buying into the EURO...let's see what it shows tonight.
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
0z Ukie is still really close to the coast . Just like the Euro. Really nice look here.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Man the euro and the ukmet have been so consistent.
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
mugs interesting that Upton says nowhere near the same thing yet we are so close and would generally be felt the same effects at least western areas. Guess the two stations aren't in agreement here.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Waiting on the GEFS
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
mugs I do not even see that for Mt. Holly where did you get that from? Did they change it? I think they must have have not seen that schpeal on HWO or discusssion for NJ Mt. Holly, lets hope they change it back mugs and for upton too : ) Frank is it a strong sign when ukie and Euro are in agreement? Not too familiar with their comparison.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Oh I found it, weird how is one part of Mt. Holly discusssion different than others? And upton so different than Mt. Holly, briefing packages sheesh, upton better get on their game if Mt. Holly is right.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
The GFS is missing a critical piece of H5 energy which the EURO has, and that is a third s/w between the southern and Polar energies. Without it, the GFS has a weaker northern stream that results in a broader trough which is not going to cut it in a mainly progressive pattern. The euro, meanwhile, phases 2 northern streams together (AJ and PJ) and that vort phases in with the mean trough to promote bombogenesis. It's like night and day right now and the GFS Para and GGEM have also been as consistent as the EURO
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Rayno on twitter: I do think the Euro is locked in. However, early enough for enough changes to make big differences in track
on a side note 3.3 earthquake in dallas area!
on a side note 3.3 earthquake in dallas area!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
How many runs in a row has the euro showed a bomb inside the BM? Hasn't it only been 2-3? I wouldn't call that locked in 4 days out
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
I didn't say it Frank : ) What is this on news hackers could shut power grid of US? WTH is going on, 3 earthquuake today possible major east coast storm. sheesh
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Idk, I think we should design our own forecasting model except I'm not good at math...so..
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Frank_Wx wrote:How many runs in a row has the euro showed a bomb inside the BM? Hasn't it only been 2-3? I wouldn't call that locked in 4 days out
Yea, not at all convinced yet.. Wont feel confident until GEFS and CMC get on board.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
lol, well we would need quite a bit of money I am decent at math but been a long time, i took math for technologists in undergrad. Wow, china has something against us big time, sorry I know this is off topic but this could be really bad.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/20/politics/nsa-china-power-grid/
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/20/politics/nsa-china-power-grid/
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Euro has started, let's see....
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Man your program is so much faster than wxbell, it will be a while before they have Euro out.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Worth mentioning Monday looks like an awful day. Rain and wind with temps possibly getting into the low 70's. Woah
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Out to hour 24
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Monday morning pretty heavy rain
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Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible
Yep, winds look to be a issue as they coincide with rain, said some instability too on NWS.
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