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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:15 pm

0z Para is still a miss lmfao
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:18 pm

ooz gfs much faster. has precip falling from mid morning ending early evening. temps def to warm for snow. looking at h5 ridge is sharper in west and trough sharper however interaction of s/w looks better on 18z.

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 3 Gfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht
18z

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 3 Gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht
00z
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:25 pm

actually everything looks better on tonights gfs up to 00z weds then trough flattens out on wens
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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:35 pm

GGEM is further east than 12z

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif
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Post by algae888 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:42 pm

well i'm off to bed to tired to wait up for euro. anyway models will get a better handle on this by Mondays 12z's. these next few runs could be all over the place.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:44 pm

Finally I'm home. Still not buying into the EURO...let's see what it shows tonight.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:52 pm

0z Ukie is still really close to the coast . Just like the Euro. Really nice look here.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:55 pm

Man the euro and the ukmet have been so consistent.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:58 pm

mugs interesting that Upton says nowhere near the same thing yet we are so close and would generally be felt the same effects at least western areas.  Guess the two stations aren't in agreement here.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:59 pm

Waiting on the GEFS

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:00 am

mugs I do not even see that for Mt. Holly where did you get that from? Did they change it? I think they must have have not seen that schpeal on HWO or discusssion for NJ Mt. Holly, lets hope they change it back mugs and for upton too : ) Frank is it a strong sign when ukie and Euro are in agreement?  Not too familiar with their comparison.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:13 am

Oh I found it, weird how is one part of Mt. Holly discusssion different than others?  And upton so different than Mt. Holly, briefing packages sheesh, upton better get on their game if Mt. Holly is right.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:22 am

The GFS is missing a critical piece of H5 energy which the EURO has, and that is a third s/w between the southern and Polar energies. Without it, the GFS has a weaker northern stream that results in a broader trough which is not going to cut it in a mainly progressive pattern. The euro, meanwhile, phases 2 northern streams together (AJ and PJ) and that vort phases in with the mean trough to promote bombogenesis. It's like night and day right now and the GFS Para and GGEM have also been as consistent as the EURO

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:37 am

Rayno on twitter: I do think the Euro is locked in. However, early enough for enough changes to make big differences in track


on a side note 3.3 earthquake in dallas area!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:39 am

How many runs in a row has the euro showed a bomb inside the BM? Hasn't it only been 2-3? I wouldn't call that locked in 4 days out

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:41 am

I didn't say it Frank : ) What is this on news hackers could shut power grid of US?  WTH is going on, 3 earthquuake today possible major east coast storm. sheesh
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:43 am

Idk, I think we should design our  own forecasting model except I'm not good at math...so..

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:46 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:How many runs in a row has the euro showed a bomb inside the BM? Hasn't it only been 2-3? I wouldn't call that locked in 4 days out

Yea, not at all convinced yet.. Wont feel confident until GEFS and CMC get on board.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:46 am

lol, well we would need quite a bit of money I am decent at math but been a long time, i took math for technologists in undergrad.  Wow, china has something against us big time, sorry I know this is off topic but this could be really bad.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/20/politics/nsa-china-power-grid/
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:48 am

Euro has started, let's see....

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:49 am

Man your program is so much faster than wxbell, it will be a while before they have Euro out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:55 am

Worth mentioning Monday looks like an awful day. Rain and wind with temps possibly getting into the low 70's. Woah 

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:55 am

Out to hour 24

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:58 am

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

Monday morning pretty heavy rain

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:00 am

Yep, winds look to be a issue as they coincide with rain, said some instability too on NWS.
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