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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by algae888 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:23 pm

i'm guessing we want a track like gfs and strength of euro
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:24 pm

Can anybody get the accumulation map for the Canadian? Thanks!!!

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Post by Guest Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:28 pm

Just curious here. What would it take to pull the storm maybe 50-75 miles west? I hate pulling you guys into an all rain event, but I would selfishly like to jump from 1-3 into the 3-6 zone.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:35 pm

Not much, slightly more digging of the trough/more amp'd southern stream, stronger system than modeled. All of which are highly possible, all of which are also still uncertain lmao

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:40 pm

12z GEFS

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 2rzb0c0
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:46 pm

12z GEFS are COLD!
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:47 pm

12z GEFS are COLD!
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:47 pm

Has anybody checked out the latest UKMET?!!! Talk about going AWOL!!! Delivers a 14-18" snow for the interior with 8-12" for the I-95 corridor. It's usually a great model, but as much as I want to believe it, I have to see what happens lmao

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Post by Sunflowers138 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:54 pm

How cold AI? (I'm in smithtown like you!)

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:58 pm

What I DO like to see in it, though, is that it is CLEARLY depicting that heavy snowband, regardless of where it is. That's a HUGE player in this

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:58 pm

Here comes the EURO...........

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:00 pm

UKMET, by the way, had 850's warm all the way into eastern PA. EURO coming in now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:01 pm

UKMET 850's

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 O6moV8v

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:01 pm

Hour 51

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:03 pm

Trending toward GFS?

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:04 pm

Good point, Frank. Euro looks about the same, just slightly faster

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:05 pm

This looks better for NYC. I need soundings,

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63


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Post by Sharon L Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:11 pm

CNJ gets the junk again sigh... I'm moving! Lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:12 pm

If it is more snow at the coast, verbatim Euro snow maos on wxbell bring about 10 inches to southern WC and into city bit less.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:56 pm

Things cooled off quite a bit on this Euro run. Good news for the city though I still don't think we'll see more than an inch or two without the factors Frank and others have described that are conducive to a coastal snowfall.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:01 pm

EURO has 1.2" QPF IMBY, was worried when I saw watches up far north but seeing the latest models TV mets seem to be over estimating climo again and putting the heavy snow axis too far NW compared to where the real cold and precip will be.. Theyre gonna bust again...
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:04 pm

I hope you are right NJ, bring it on down this way too : )
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Post by Quietace Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:06 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Things cooled off quite a bit on this Euro run. Good news for the city though I still don't think we'll see more than an inch or two without the factors Frank and others have described that are conducive to a coastal snowfall.
It did come in decently cool. 700mb goes to 2c in some places and the surface is warm at the start before crashing. The euros precip shield on the onset is heavy and would cool the surface for interior areas verbatim as shown.
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Ecmwf_10
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Ecmwf_11
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Ecmwf_12
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Ecmwf_13
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 22 Ecmwf_14

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I hope you are right NJ, bring it on down this way too : )

I can see the immediate coast and coastal plain having issues but the TV mets seem to say only the high elevations will accumulate when we learned Oct 2011 all we need is a cold air mass and strong enough precip rates.. That low wasnt even deep it was above 1000mb and I still got 6" of snow here in October.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:15 pm

Raynos video:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-snowstorm-to-cause-widespread-thanksgiving-travel-delays/2430839568001
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