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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:24 pm

Al we are on the cusp of 1-3 or 3-6 as of now it looks like.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:25 pm

Right NJ, I am thinking the dynamics of this storm kinda like what sroc was saying will help bring in cold or even as you said manufacture its own.  So exciting nonetheless to be tracking in November!
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:27 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:Things cooled off quite a bit on this Euro run. Good news for the city though I still don't think we'll see more than an inch or two without the factors Frank and others have described that are conducive to a coastal snowfall.
It did come in decently cool. 700mb goes to 2c in some places and the surface is warm at the start before crashing. The euros precip shield on the onset is heavy and would cool the surface for interior areas verbatim as shown.
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Ecmwf_10
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Ecmwf_11
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Ecmwf_12
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Ecmwf_13
11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Ecmwf_14
Hey ace I don't think we gonna see much snow
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by amugs Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:35 pm

Nws 2pm snow maps?

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Stormtotalprecip
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:35 pm

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:39 pm

Imagine if we did get the cooling we needed and euro verbatim snow totals happened : )  I think its still possible, IMO nothing is ever over with until it is.  May I get let down yeah def possibility but there is always next time.
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:40 pm

Those Surface and 700mb charts support snow east of NYC by 1pm
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:43 pm

Hey NWS changed up working, now says some possibility of 6+ for all areas except twin forks : ) So there is still a bit of hope.  This may be a nail biter that is not pinned down until crunch time or even a nowcast.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE
REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...RAIN...AND
WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED
HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:45 pm

Alex according to Bernies snow map u need to be back up in VT lol, maybe get lucky and it shifts south.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 23 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:15 pm

15z SREFs look good
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:41 pm

18z nam looks good as well.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:20 pm

Woah!!! I'm on my phone so I can't post it, but UPTON sharply increased their snowfall map for the 5 boroughs! 4-6" right on top of Manhattan.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:38 pm

New thread

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