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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:00 am

Through hour 48 no noticeable differences. Still too early anyway 

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:03 am

Hour 57, southern stream looks a little more potent, deeper

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:05 am

stronger, oh boy
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:06 am

Through hour 63, western ridge looks same as 12z. Southern stream still more ampd 

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:10 am

Euro has wind gusts coinciding with rain and areawide many spots 45-50kt monday.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:11 am

Southern stream is stronger but northern stream is not digging as much. This might be east. Let's see.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:13 am

Here she comes....

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:14 am

don't look east to me looks like a beast, am trailing behind u  a bit frank on wxbell, lol oh well RS line far south of coast looks like.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:17 am

And euro still has it...

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Snow88 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:17 am

Euro is still showing a coastal bomb. Low goes just to the east of LI. Coast might see problems with this run but inland areas do well.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:17 am

@jmanley32 wrote:don't look east to me looks like a beast, am trailing behind u  a bit frank on wxbell, lol oh well RS line far south of coast looks like.

That's not the RS line, that's 850 mb line

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:18 am

wow
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:18 am

oh opps sorry, so what do the temps look like?
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:19 am

A lot of energy is left trailing over the Lakes. Damn that western ridge.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:20 am

@jmanley32 wrote:oh opps sorry, so what do the temps look like?

Looks like 40's with rain then possible change to snow

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:22 am

wxbell snow totals verbatim still have a ton of snow.  Why is that not sensing the warmer temps?
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:24 am

Because they're dumb. I've always said that. They do not account surface temps. They're only good in dead of winter when obviously we know temps are cold enough

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:25 am

I know this is not all that accurate but has now been consistent along with the storm track for 3-4 runs now, imagine! On thanksgiving!  Seriously when was the last time we have seen that much snow on thanksgiving

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Ecmwf_10
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:26 am

We were only 6-12 hours too late of a phase to see most of us change to snow

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:28 am

Looks like 32 line hits coast about around there as heaviest qpf passes through.  Very close call for that map to actually verify yikes.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:29 am

Wow, hurricane winds for tip LI.

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Ecmwf_11
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:39 am

So for those waking up...

1. The euro and ukmet models, highest in verification, still show a strong coastal storm moving in Wednesday and departing by Thanksgiving morning. If this were true, heavy rain and gusty winds would  be the main issues with a possible changeover to snow. 

2. The rest of the model suite, gfs and ggem, are nowhere near such a solution. However, at this time, I'm siding with a blend of the euro and gfs which would still be a problematic coastal  storm. 

I'll be working tomorrow morning. Will return with further updates in mid afternoon.

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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Nov 23, 2014 1:55 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:So for those waking up...

1. The euro and ukmet models, highest in verification, still show a strong coastal storm moving in Wednesday and departing by Thanksgiving morning. If this were true, heavy rain and gusty winds would  be the main issues with a possible changeover to snow. 

2. The rest of the model suite, gfs and ggem, are nowhere near such a solution. However, at this time, I'm siding with a blend of the euro and gfs which would still be a problematic coastal  storm. 

I'll be working tomorrow morning. Will return with further updates in mid afternoon.

Yea, not sure which Im going to go with yet.. Going to wait for more runs to get a better picture.
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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:26 am

Wow 42 of the 50 stamp euro ensembles bring a big snowstorm. That's from only about 20 at 12z. Think we got a big one coming looking at Temps appears be in low 30s even at coast.


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11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 Sun Nov 23, 2014 3:39 am

Talk about pretty tight cluster of low locations too.

11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible - Page 4 Euro_l10
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