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11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

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11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map Empty 11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:57 pm

A strong low pressure system is going to develop near the Gulf Coast and track near our benchmark off the coast. This storm originates from a strong area of upper level vorticity which comes in close interaction with another piece of s/w from the Polar Jet Stream.

1st Guess Snow Map:

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map 1st_guess_snow_map

Given the track of the low, the timing of when certain columns are cooling (850, 700, 925 mb, etc...), the timing of a phase, and other factors such as +NAO, no 50/50, and no northern HP...this is the snow map I have comprised. I will make a final call map tomorrow morning based on latest guidance. Inland areas can expect a snowy Thanksgiving Eve, especially from eastern PA to NW NJ into southern NY and CT. There will be sections topping 10+ inches, likely in higher elevations, but for the most part 6-10 should be fairly common.

For NYC Metro and areas closer to the coast, this storm will have to undergo some dynamic cooling in order for the rain to turn to snow. That is likely to happen as the storm passes on or just east of the BM. The exact track of this storm is still being determined, but I am going with a track right on the BM.

Timing

Start: 7-9am Wednesday

Heaviest Precip: 11am-3pm Wednesday

Time of changeover from rain to snow for NYC Metro: 4pm-6pm (volatile)

End: 2am-4am

Wind:

Wind speeds will be mainly between 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. On LI, especially the east end, you can expect higher gusts possibly near 50 mph.

Stay tuned, more info to come. Chat tonight at 10 pm. For those who are new, the chat is located at the bottom of the home screen. See you then!

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 2:58 pm

Good map frank. I love how you always draw the line between two amounts right over my house lmao.
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:00 pm

Dt.....
** ALERT 12Z EURO HAS COME IN... ** NO CHANGES FOR NC WVA VA MD DEL ... but for PA NJ NY and NEW ENGLAND the midday Euro shifts the Low a TAD east taking the R/S Line SOUTH of NYC....
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Post by sroc4 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:01 pm

@aiannone wrote:Good map frank. I love how you always draw the line between two amounts right over my house lmao.

He should be drawing a lollipop over your house Alex as you always seem to be slight higher than the rest of us in Suffolk Laughing

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Post by sabamfa Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:01 pm

Is the warm air we are having enough to keep the roads in pretty decent shape? Or is it going to be a mess that just gets progressively messier? I am debating if I should take the day off work or if I should just go in and then leave early and hope for the best.

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:03 pm

TWC Greg Postel just said "There may be shift East which will bring heavier amounts to the coast. He said pay attention because the WSWs may be extended"
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:04 pm

He also Just showed a new track graphic and said he believes it will be just enough off shore to make it primarily a snow event even to the coast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:07 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Good map frank. I love how you always draw the line between two amounts right over my house lmao.

He should be drawing a lollipop over your house Alex as you always seem to be slight higher than the rest of us in Suffolk Laughing

shhhhh

@sabamfa wrote:Is the warm air we are having enough to keep the roads in pretty decent shape? Or is it going to be a mess that just gets progressively messier? I am debating if I should take the day off work or if I should just go in and then leave early and hope for the best.

I think roads will start out ok but get worse by the evening hours, say after 4pm. Also depends on when the changeover to snow happens.

@aiannone wrote:TWC Greg Postel just said "There may be shift East which will bring heavier amounts to the coast. He said pay attention because the WSWs may be extended"

It is possible and I will be watching closely. I can see 3-6 expanding south and east on my map.

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:08 pm

Frank, remember what happened with the post Sandy storm that was supposed to be all rain at the coast? Took a similar track to this one and I ended up getting 5"
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:18 pm

I know a few folks that will be travelling I-95 up to the Boston area, and figured it would not be too bad since it is close to the coast, but I see you have them in the 6-12" range....

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:20 pm

15z SREFs look good, almost in good range for SREF/NAM. Havent seen EURO yet.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:20 pm

Janet with a storm track over the BM like I am expecting, they should be able to only remain rain a short period of time.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:21 pm

Frank I am stoked you have me very close to the 3-6 and I will take it in a heartbeat of course my parents get 6-12 in CT (funny how NWS has less than a inch there).  Hoping that south trend of the storm and cold happens so I am fully within the 3-6 or dare I say the 4-8 : ) Very hard system to deal with and your doing great all of you.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:22 pm

Frank why would eastern areas benefit, if the cold is coming from the NW, wouldnt they be last to get the cold?  I don't get why we see less and they see more.
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:25 pm

One thing i think is important to take from the NAM is temps. Nam usually has a warm bias and it has been very cold at 850mb. Could be something to watch. If you take a Euro/GFS blend with NAM temps, the coast could get in on the action.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:27 pm

Can somebody post the EURO ensemble surface low map that shows each individual member? I'm curious lol Thanks!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:36 pm

@aiannone wrote:Frank, remember what happened with the post Sandy storm that was supposed to be all rain at the coast? Took a similar track to this one and I ended up getting 5"
post Sandy we got a foot here of very heavy snow
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:43 pm

UPDATED!!!! WENT COLDER!!
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map Stormt11
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:47 pm

18z NAM FWIW
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map Hires_14
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Post by Quietace Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:48 pm

@aiannone wrote:18z NAM FWIW
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map Hires_14
Pretty much 5-10 area wide

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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:49 pm

Not done yet though
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:50 pm

@aiannone wrote:UPDATED!!!! WENT COLDER!!
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map Stormt11
You just beat me to the punch! Very encouraging developments with this afternoon's model runs. Have to watch for the possibility to see if this storm ticks east again / gets colder.
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Post by algae888 Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:51 pm

Alex I was just going to post 18z nam. actually posted in the other thread It definitely went east. And JMan National Weather Service has us now in the 4-6 inch range with 6-8 not too far away
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:52 pm

NAM is starting to catch on but still lookes kind of weird and LR NAMish to me, IMO by tonight 0z and tomorrow 12z we'll have a very good idea.
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Post by aiannone Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:53 pm

Tom, i think you can agree with the statement that the trend for the coast has been good today.
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