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11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

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Post by tigernumba1 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:15 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 Post-747-0-53807300-1416920202

All the players are on the field. This system is beginning to impress me. There's a handful of guidance showing copious amounts of snow, even for the coast, due to H7 Frontogenesis that will be key for those areas to see accumulating snow. New snow map and updated forecast out at Noon

Glad to hear this cause most local mets are calling for 1-3 for the coast. I would like to see a little more then that lol
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Post by Dis2cruise Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:17 am

I have a few questions.....

We purchased a house on fire island we were going to have thanksgiving for the first time there before closing the house for the season next week we will be leaving tomorrow in the mid afternoon boat... We thought this would something different to do however, it doesn't look like it now, lol!
If the ferries don't cancel I would like your thoughts....

1.  Wind what kind of wind gusts are we talking about?

2.  Are we up against a lot of precipitation snow or rain?

3.  I'm also concerned about  high tides at the parking lot at the ferry terminal on Long Island the lot can get flooded don't want to lose my car

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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:17 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm in my 50's and the day before these events still feels like Christmas Eve when I was 6.

The only difference is Christmas Day would never disappoint, with these things you just never know for sure until it's all over.

There are 12 step programs for Snowaholics like you and me but I prefer to indulge my 54 year addiction with tracking like this the last few days.These storms to me are like fishing.Some days you get skunked but others you can do no wrong and get a boatload.That's the excitement factor.All systems go now to nowcast time.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:20 am

9z SREF has 1 + QPF for NYC with cold 850's and -4 700mb temps
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:21 am

right now the nao and ao are positive the pna is negative mjo phase 3 and 2 consecutive days in the 60's and we are talking snowstorm for tomorrow. amazing!!! either we are lucky or this is a sign for this winter and oh boy what a ride its going to be!
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:24 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm in my 50's and the day before these events still feels like Christmas Eve when I was 6.

The only difference is Christmas Day would never disappoint, with these things you just never know for sure until it's all over.

There are 12 step programs for Snowaholics like you and me but I prefer to indulge my 54 year addiction with tracking like this the last few days.These storms to me are like fishing.Some days you get skunked but others you can do no wrong and get a boatload.That's the excitement factor.All systems go now to nowcast time.

Can never go wrong with a fishing analogy Doc!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:26 am

Only a fellow fisherman would understand that one,Doc.Hoping the storm bombs and pulls in a ton of cold air to blast you LI guys as well.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:30 am

@docstox12 wrote:Only a fellow fisherman would understand that one,Doc.Hoping the storm bombs and pulls in a ton of cold air to blast you LI guys as well.

Honestly I am not looking to get greedy here on eastern LI with SST in the low 50's in November.  Im simply hoping to wake up Turkey morning to no grass.  Say...1-2"  Anything above that and I may have to re-consider the proposition I made to the snow Gods last March involving a snow angel and my skivvies.   Wink

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:32 am

@Dis2cruise wrote:I have a few questions.....

We purchased a house on fire island we were going to have thanksgiving for the first time there before closing the house for the season next week we will be leaving tomorrow in the mid afternoon boat... We thought this would something different to do however, it doesn't look like it now, lol!
If the ferries don't cancel I would like your thoughts....

1.  Wind what kind of wind gusts are we talking about?

2.  Are we up against a lot of precipitation snow or rain?

3.  I'm also concerned about  high tides at the parking lot at the ferry terminal on Long Island the lot can get flooded don't want to lose my car

Yikes, not sure how the ferries work or how often they close due to inclement  weather, but the weather will be either a rain or snow mix or all snow by tomorrow afternoon. Winds won't be too bad, maybe gusts between 20-25 mph. But tomorrow afternoon is when the worst is expected to hit.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:46 am

There's only been one 10 inch snowfall in Central Park in November.

I'm not saying NYC gets anywhere near that, 2-4 seems to be a safe bet for now, but if everything aligns perfect tomorrow, low probability but still possible, maybe we can set a record tomorrow night.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:50 am

I think the cnj coast estimated amounts are low for snowfall I heard and listened and read everything last night and today. The storm has trended east and colder and wetter. So to me a coating to an inch is low should go up a little I know its a tricky forcast
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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:51 am

9z SREF plumes have 5.84 inches of snow for JFK and 7.84 inches for LGA. Less than 3z but still decent.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20141125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.35047213588036&mLON=-73.1473890625&mTYP=roadmap
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:11 am

12z NAM has the rain/snow line just east of NYC

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 NAM_700mbHgtT_ne_f31

700 mb temps

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:11 am

Light green is likely the r/s line

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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:15 am

12z Nam is moisture loaded. Heavy snow for inland areas and a lot of mixing issues for NYC and coast.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:17 am

These last few NAM runs have been crushing from 95 N and W.....best dendritic growth zone coupled with heavy snow.

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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:21 am

Gonna be interesting what the next few runs show, as well as what the other short-range models do. They still are not certain as to exactly how amplified that southern stream becomes and how much interaction occurs between that and the third piece.

Interesting note: looking at recent radar imagery there is precipitation beginning to fall in eastern Texas and Louisiana in response to H5

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Post by RJB8525 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:22 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM has the rain/snow line just east of NYC

11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 NAM_700mbHgtT_ne_f31

700 mb temps

Looks like Staten Island will be a battle zone

Weather Chan seems to be sticking with 5-8 for the city and Sam Champions keeps saying it all depends on when the cold air gets sucked in
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Post by Guest Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:29 am

Hey Frank

The NAM rain/snow line you showed is for what time? And does this change your idea of Accumulations East of the city onto LI?

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Post by Guest Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:32 am

All You Snow Weenies Like Me......

Listen to George Jones' song "It just Don't Get Any Better Than This"
I think it captures all our feelings about the upcoming potential for tomorrow. GET FIRED UP!

-James

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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:35 am

HI-RES 4km NAM is coming in good for coastal sections. Will post the map in a minute when it loads.
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:38 am

12z Hi-RES 4km NAM
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 Hires_10
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:40 am

Here's regular NAM QPF (liquid equiv.)
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 Getptype

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:47 am

@aiannone wrote:12z Hi-RES 4km NAM
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 10 Hires_10

Hmm, that doesn't look great to me for the city. Anxious for 12z GFS.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:48 am

I could see NYC getting accumulating snow while the totals keep on going down as you head east.
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