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11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:50 am

SREF's showing a bomb even for NYC ! N& W get absolutely crushed on SREF's as well.

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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:51 am

12z GFS
11/26 Coastal Storm Part 2: Forecast & Snow Map - Page 12 Gfs_6h12
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Post by tigernumba1 Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:54 am

with some of the models coming in with very heavy precip and NYC being the battle zone, will dynamic cooling be a factor to help it stay snow?
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 10:56 am

WTH, RGEM comes in warm east of NYC, but SREF Mean has over 8" of snow for ISP.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:17 am

Living in the hv i feel good with this storm. If I lived on long island or near the coast I would worry about accumulations. I work in a place right on the river in Westchester. A few years back during that October storm it snowed all day at work but only an inch or too accumulated. I left work to a surprise. Just half a mile away from rive it was a war zone with at least 8 inches of snow and horrible road Conditions. So if river temps can affect snow accumulations this much then I am sure the ocean can play a huge factor.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:17 am

Living in the hv i feel good with this storm. If I lived on long island or near the coast I would worry about accumulations. I work in a place right on the river in Westchester. A few years back during that October storm it snowed all day at work but only an inch or too accumulated. I left work to a surprise. Just half a mile away from rive it was a war zone with at least 8 inches of snow and horrible road Conditions. So if river temps can affect snow accumulations this much then I am sure the ocean can play a huge factor.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:25 am

Oops i double posted cant figure out how to delete it on the cell sorry

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:35 am

Just updated to a winter storm warning in lower Hudson valley and northeast NJ. Still the same 6-10 inches predicted.

We shall see.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:00 pm

I imagine that will eventually lower to southern wc I'm literally 10 min away from the warned area it's silly. I even get the alerts for that area I'm so close
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Post by Dtone Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I imagine that will eventually lower to southern wc I'm literally 10 min away from the warned area it's silly. I even get the alerts for that area I'm so close

I got an alert, I was a little surprised then I realized its cuz I'm in White Plains right now lol. For a split sec I thought there was a WSW for NYC.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:06 pm

Jman.

It's not what they predict that matters it's what you end up with that counts.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:07 pm

I think there will be later today or tonight imo. I think this will overperform. Seen it before with these early storms
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:07 pm

True cp. But it's nice to see what they think may happen.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:15 pm

I hear ya Jman. There's nothing like a good winter storm but that warning just builds the anticipation.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:16 pm

@Dtone wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I imagine that will eventually lower to southern wc I'm literally 10 min away from the warned area it's silly. I even get the alerts for that area I'm so close

I got an alert, I was a little surprised then I realized its cuz I'm in White Plains right now lol. For a split sec I thought there was a WSW for NYC.

The biggest heartbreaker that can happen in the next 4 hours is the Watch to go to a Winter Weather Advisory. I'll cry. It happened last year and it stung like a bee.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:21 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Dtone wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I imagine that will eventually lower to southern wc I'm literally 10 min away from the warned area it's silly. I even get the alerts for that area I'm so close

I got an alert, I was a little surprised then I realized its cuz I'm in White Plains right now lol. For a split sec I thought there was a WSW for NYC.

The biggest heartbreaker that can happen in the next 4 hours is the Watch to go to a Winter Weather Advisory. I'll cry. It happened last year and it stung like a bee.

From watching Bill Evans just now, looks like NYC will watch everyone else get snow again I think 1-3 is a max at least for my town Staten Island
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:35 pm

Temperature 55 degrees and leveled off now should start falling later this afternoon however dew points have dropped into the mid and upper twenties away from the coast. we need them to fall off as low as possible to help us with evaporation cooling if we want big snows near the city
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:35 pm

Bill Evans will leave it to tonight's crew before they raise the alarms for NYC. They are on the dividing line now so it can go either way for them.

HE also realizes Central Park may get 5 inches of snow but zookeeper may declare 2.6. Officially then Bill will be right.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:36 pm

Looking at the recent runs, I think we are going to see significant banding set up across E-PA because of the location of the jet streak during the storm. The magnitude will allow for pretty vigorous large scale ascent, and may allow H7 to close off sooner than anticipated. This would put the best banding further west of where the models are putting it, but I think they will adjust in time. This will also work to significantly enlarge the precipitation shield, therefore increasing the duration of the event by a few hours. I think areas from Sussex, NJ to Towanda, PA and from Harrisburg, PA to Albany, NY are going to cash in on this BIG TIME. I would not be surprised to hear reports of 10 to even as much as 14 inches of snow, even in this short duration. Those bands (or band) will remain quasi-stationary for several hours, producing snowfall at rates of up to two inches per hour. Just my two cents, and I know that I've been saying "west, west, west" and it admittedly sounds like wish-casting, but I truly believe people that live in those areas have their turn coming.

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:50 pm

Euro initialized - we wait to see what it shows.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 12:56 pm

I have a new snow map out. Go to new thread.

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