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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

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Post by Dtone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:LOL detailed forecast by day has 4-7 for my area, thats warning level criteria, lol makes no sense.  Oh well, we will see only mother nature knows what truly will happen

NWS has me at 4-7" too. They have to draw a line somewhere. The thinking is probably NYC and extreme southern westchester will be closer to 4 than 7, if that. I can see 4" in the BX and a coating - 1" in Brooklyn and SE Queens. Thin line sometimes.
Interesting NWS scaled back forecast for me from a few inches to rain & snow with a chance of minor acclumation on grassy surfaces.

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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:21 pm

Rap for 11am tmw...
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 Usa_pt10
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:29 pm

Seems like a lot of tv mets downgraded because of the 18z GFS at least it seems the only model to sig cut down in my area, dangerous move imo
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:31 pm

I have to future visions...

1) Temps crash and support snow for the coast beginning at noon...forecasts bust low

2) Rain/Snow line sets up over western Nassau/NYC and I'm in a cold rain at 37*
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Post by Dtone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:43 pm

For what it's worth..ny botanical garden weather station show soil temp which I used as a rough gauge of potential for snow acclumation in marginal events. Its at 49* now. Thats in a large park though not an avg city street.

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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:48 pm

Upton is still very UNCERTAIN
AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE
LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z
CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE
ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER
EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A
MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD
OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC
METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND
WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:49 pm

I just got back from the Bronx and it's down to 39.6 here. Doc checked our temp up here at 4:00 and it was 50.3. That's over a 10 degree drop in less than 3 hours.Very good sign, cold air is seeping in rapidly.

Like everyone else I really don't know how to call this but everyone going to warmer and less snow with their forecasts because of the 18Z GFS? That's insane!

If it repeats or trends warmer on the 0Z runs then yes I'll start to worry, but not until then.
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Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:50 pm

Latest RAP 700mb temps are cold
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 10687510
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:54 pm

@aiannone wrote:Upton is still very UNCERTAIN
AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE
LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z
CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE
ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER
EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A
MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD
OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC
METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND
WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS

** I'm a fan of this. **
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Post by Vinnydula Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:57 pm

At 49 temp not dropping much
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Post by Gator99 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:14 pm

Midtown Manhattan, 7:15, 53 degrees

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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:14 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I just got back from the Bronx and it's down to 39.6 here. Doc checked our temp up here at 4:00 and it was 50.3. That's over a 10 degree drop in less than 3 hours.Very good sign, cold air is seeping in rapidly.

Like everyone else I really don't know how to call this but everyone going to warmer and less snow with their forecasts because of the 18Z GFS? That's insane!

If it repeats or trends warmer on the 0Z runs then yes I'll start to worry, but not until then.

39.2 now CP.Yes, that big drop is good news , was worried about that 50 degrees before.Looking worse for the City and Coast right now.Think we may be ok unless the QPF busts out or warmer solution.
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:Latest RAP 700mb temps are cold
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 10687510

I played the loop of this (the 22Z RAP), leading up to hr 18, the 0C 700 mb line shifts north and west. And the 23Z RAP just finished and it shows the 0C 700 mb line crossing into NYC by 12 PM. Upcoming runs may also do just that...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:33 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Latest RAP 700mb temps are cold
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 10687510

I played the loop of this (the 22Z RAP), leading up to hr 18, the 0C 700 mb line shifts north and west.  And the 23Z RAP just finished and it shows the 0C 700 mb line crossing into NYC by 12 PM. Upcoming runs may also do just that...
In which direction math toward ocean or inland.  Are you saying more chance for snow toward coastal areas or less?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:34 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Upton is still very UNCERTAIN
AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE
LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z
CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE
ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO
15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER
EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A
MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD
OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC
METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND
WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS

** I'm a fan of this. **
I second that soul, there is still a shot we go to warning level if the higher amount plays out, it is a very fine line and I really feel in my gut....Idon't know lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:37 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Seems like a lot of tv mets downgraded because of the 18z GFS at least it seems the only model to sig cut down in my area, dangerous move imo
I agree NJ, especially since from what I understand from some that they believe such as mugs that 06z and 18z are the worst for the GFS 00z are the best.  But I am not sure if there is validity to this or not.  We will see at 00z, really getting down to a nowcast as precip starts not long after or around 06z tomorrow.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:38 pm

Down to 43.5* so far dropped from 51 about 2 hours ago when I went to Shop Rite and fought off the masses for last minute food preparations for Turkey Day. Good sign IMO.

Let's not panic here and Tom I agree 100% with the difficulty of this storm and they are riding the OP of the GFS - one model saying a warm tongue of air will invade - they should know better not to hug a model but NWS showing they are in a holding a pattern of I do not know. I like Lee Goldberg but he busted last year a few times on the storms. I think the station managers pull him too much.

Look at how juicy this is!!! God I wish it was January!!

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 Post-747-0-24649500-1416956139

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:41 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Math23x7 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Latest RAP 700mb temps are cold
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 10687510

I played the loop of this (the 22Z RAP), leading up to hr 18, the 0C 700 mb line shifts north and west.  And the 23Z RAP just finished and it shows the 0C 700 mb line crossing into NYC by 12 PM. Upcoming runs may also do just that...
In which direction math toward ocean or inland.  Are you saying more chance for snow toward coastal areas or less?

it moved inland, which means places that have snow in the late morning hours in NYC will changeover to rain. Lee Goldberg mentioned this in his futurecast that eastern Queens and Western Nassau (my region) could see rain to snow to rain to snow from this storm.

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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:42 pm

The GFS historically struggles with thermal profiles and dynamically induced cooling process.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:43 pm

NWS Upton, well thats not a good thing, although I guess we gotta roll with the punches : )

THIS WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW...POTENTIALLY CAUSING POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:44 pm

Mike,

That has been the battleground since yesterday with this storm but N&W will be okay - see what I posted above the GFS and thermal profiles.

Mugs

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:46 pm

Mugs what is your take on JUST N/W of NYC, like 10-15 miles and toward hudson river is where I am at.  Mentioned it before but I have driven home from s. bronx with rain only to have all snow in yonkers.
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:47 pm

Temps falling nicely - 30's not to far to the west - just dropped .7* in last 20 minutes - ITS COMING!!!!

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 5 Post-42-0-22137200-1416962311

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:49 pm

Way to warm over here still, high 40's low 50's.  Hopefully things crash in soon.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:50 pm

37.4 here Mugs and geographically I'm only 45 miles north of midtown.

I was in the Bronx all day but Doc says it was 50.3 at 4pm so do the math. Dropping like a rock.
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