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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:52 pm

Wow the radar is pumped, we may just get that frontogenesis we need to drop the temps and blast even NYC.  At this point I just hope we stay where we are at in southern WC, or go back up, I will not be happy to see even lower totals, but will move on, like mugs said if it was only jan!
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Mugs what is your take on JUST N/W of NYC, like 10-15 miles and toward hudson river is where I am at.  Mentioned it before but I have driven home from s. bronx with rain only to have all snow in yonkers.

Jman you are on the battle line of snow an drain(slop) - like you say 2-4 miles north and west can be all snow and you are in slop. I think it is a battle but I think we see the cold air say bite me to the Heat Miser!! It is going to be a very tight gradient that we just do not know - sorry but if temps keep falling like I posted above then we all may be in very good shape come tomorrow by noon or sooner.

Get this Pearl river, NY - Home of the 2nd largest St Paddy's Day Parade in America (? so I am told) CANCELLED school laready they are saying f this we are taking an early vacation!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:58 pm

37.2

We are on our way
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:00 pm

mugs, Westwood district called an early dismissal for tomorrow....

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Sharon L Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:05 pm

I think I'm on the line slop or snow, who knows? Anyone got a guesstimate for Plainsboro NJ affraid
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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Joe Snow Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:09 pm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 TECthm


Current Radar with vapor overlay and surface pressure................Here we go.........
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Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:16 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:For example 18z RGEM has 10"+ imby meanwhile GFS has a few slushy inches, should be noted GFS ens a bit colder than op.

Ehh the GFS in this time frame to a storm is like a 70yr old man trying to read the paper without his reading glasses...far sited. Its now cast time boys and girls.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:19 pm

hello every one just got home from work. had a very busy day. did a little catching up and I can't believe every one is freakin out and changing forecast over the 18Z gfs for cryin out loud. jman we will be in a battle tomorrow but I like our chances to see at least 3" and a real good shot at 6". currently 46* need temps to fall into 30's tonight. let the fun begin
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11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:22 pm

They have me now in a WWA but the text says 3-5" which I believe is a watch...


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Vinnydula Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:22 pm

Yuck 47 here still
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Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:hello every one just got home from work. had a very busy day. did a little catching up and I can't believe every one is freakin out and changing forecast over the 18Z gfs for cryin out loud. jman we will be in a battle tomorrow but I like our chances to see at least 3" and a real good shot at 6". currently 46* need temps to fall into 30's tonight. let the fun begin

Al,

Glad to see your voice of reason on this as I said it to let's not panic - the 18Z GFS I do not put much stock into and it sucks at Temp thermal profiles. I think the temps are moving in the right direction down to 42* so far dropped 1.6* in 50 minutes - 230's are about 70 moles west of me - short distance met speaking.

Zoo good call on their part and we all have minimum days over here.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:32 pm

28 here in the Poconos, clear and calm. Probably gonna drop to near 24 by morning, which will get a nice frozen layer at the surface so snow can rapidly accumulate.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:32 pm

Razz Very Happy
@Dunnzoo wrote:They have me now in a WWA but the text says 3-5" which I believe is a watch...

3-5 is an advisory Janet.

Potential for 6 or more is a watch.

6 or more likely beginning in the next 24 hours is a warning.
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:33 pm

@Joe Snow wrote:11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 TECthm


Current Radar with vapor overlay and surface pressure................Here we go.........
unless im seeing incorrectly looks like LP is forming east of where models had which is right on sc coast
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Post by sabamfa Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:38 pm

If I have to travel from morristown to Wayne around noon tomorrow, do you all think the roads will still be ok?

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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:39 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: Razz  Very Happy
@Dunnzoo wrote:They have me now in a WWA but the text says 3-5" which I believe is a watch...

3-5 is an advisory Janet.

Potential for 6 or more is a watch.

6 or more likely beginning in the next 24 hours is a warning.

Ugh, Bergen County, glad I'm out of there for this storm. 36.6 now CP, looking better and better.Thinking all snow from the get go.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:39 pm

Algae, I was almost fooled by that myself, but if you take where the low is on that map and follow the precipitation streamers you end up in the same spot. The reason why you follow the streamers is because they are aligned with the mean shear in the atmosphere, which is the same path that the surface low will take.

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Post by WeatherBob Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:40 pm

Frank, is it me or is your website 2 hours ahead of the actual time. The posts have time markings 2 hours ahead.
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:43 pm

18z gfs has lp about 50 miles off of s/c coast joe's map looks like low is forming over 100 miles east of coast

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Gfs_namer_012_10m_wnd_precip

gfs 18z 1am
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:43 pm

Thinking the same Doc. It's a small sample but so far you've been good to the HV. The 2 inches we got in the beginning of the month when I was away was a good omen.

You and I both know there's nothing set in stone yet and never will be with a storm like this until the final tally is taken. Or not taken God forbid.
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:46 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Algae, I was almost fooled by that myself, but if you take where the low is on that map and follow the precipitation streamers you end up in the same spot. The reason why you follow the streamers is because they are aligned with the mean shear in the atmosphere, which is the same path that the surface low will take.

well rb I guess i'm wrong but it still looks east to me. we shall see
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Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:48 pm

Liking the moisture SE CP plus we got this 15 degree drop in temps now.Tracks so far favor the HV.Feeling a bit better. If this cranks up early, I may be able to stay up here all day tomorrow and get to Mom's Thursday noon after things clear out.Would love to see a HV snowstorm in all it's glory,LOL!
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:50 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote: Razz  Very Happy
@Dunnzoo wrote:They have me now in a WWA but the text says 3-5" which I believe is a watch...

3-5 is an advisory Janet.

Potential for 6 or more is a watch.

6 or more likely beginning in the next 24 hours is a warning.

Ugh..Was off by an inch! anyway, what was weird was in the text they talked about the possibility of about 7", they are conflicting the text with the watch/advisory/whatever.... I guess they are too busy watching the models...

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Joe Snow Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:53 pm

FYI the program I am using to generate the maps is called GREarth part of the Gibson Ridge software, Storm chasers use this software to chase. I get direct feeds from the National Weather Service, through Allison house. The Radar maps are in real time. I can overlay any level in Pressure or temperature readings as well well as model overlay to see how the model is doing/did as compared to the actual event.

So if anyone wants to see something just let mew know.......

Love tracking storms............Have fun and be safe.
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Post by algae888 Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:58 pm

9zutc of 0z nam..
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Nam_namer_009_10m_wnd_precip

9zutc of 18z nam
11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 6 Nam_namer_015_10m_wnd_precip

that is east and precip shield is east
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