NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

+59
Artechmetals
snow247
Snow88
mako460
shawnerak
ltledy23
nyrfan31
Lnda23
essexcountypete
LB3147
WOLVES1
dsix85
tigernumba1
bloc1357
Sunflowers138
mpmezz
oldtimer
pkmak
Blondie
elkiehound
Aiosamoney21
emokid51783
Fededle22
BARBIEFLY
dad4twoboys
SNOW MAN
HeresL
HectorO
2004blackwrx
devsman
WeatherBob
sabamfa
algae888
Joe Snow
Sharon L
Gator99
Vinnydula
Dtone
LBC1985
GreyBeard
meeka312
cooladi
Grselig
RJB8525
CPcantmeasuresnow
aiannone
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
Quietace
Dunnzoo
docstox12
Math23x7
NjWeatherGuy
nutleyblizzard
skinsfan1177
rb924119
sroc4
amugs
Frank_Wx
63 posters

Page 2 of 25 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 13 ... 25  Next

Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:23 pm

SREF's

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Sref_namer_039_precip_p24


11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Sref_namer_033_mslp

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Quietace Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:27 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, Shocked I really on you guys for the TRUTH!
So many small changes with temps and lifting, precip intensity,deviation in track, and the 700mb warm nose with this system can change a forecast. I dont have confidence in a forecast as i can see many outcomes in my head with this system still, even nowcasting.

_________________
Ryan
Ph.D  Candidate at FSU
M.S. in Meteorology from FSU
B.S. in Meteorology from Plymouth State University
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3615
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 24
Location : Tallahassee, FL

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:40 pm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 SREF_QPFtotal_ne_f42

NICE!!!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by amugs Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:41 pm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 SrefNE_prec_snowmn12_033

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12440
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:42 pm

A typical NYC area borderline snowstorm of which I've seen many turn out boom or bust.Sometimes you don't know for sure even a few hours before or even during a storm.I've seen some weird things happen.The Feb 1978 snowstorm was supposed to produce 18 to 20 inches that day but a sudden "transferrance" of energy left us in Bergen County with only 10 or 12 with a dead lull for hours.The Jan 1978 snowstorms was supposed to mix with and change to rain with only 2 to 4 inches but the R/S line never got further north than newark and where I was was blasted with nearly 20 inches and 8 foot drifts.My 1977 Ford Granada was buried up to the roof and took 2 days for me to dig out.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:45 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Good god this is a hard forecast, I gave up, bust potential too high around 95 dont feel confident enough on a call.
Agree 100%. Also Gave up.

I can't believe this!! Lol, Shocked I really on you guys for the TRUTH!
So many small changes with temps and lifting, precip intensity,deviation in track, and the 700mb warm nose with this system can change a forecast. I dont have confidence in a forecast as i can see many outcomes in my head with this system still, even nowcasting.

I totally get it. This is really tough. One of the toughest since I came to NYC 6 years ago, and namely because of the month we are in. 3 weeks from now it would be a different story just based on the seasonal temps & airmass to work with.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:48 pm

I won't make a map, but I see at least 2" of snow for everyone, and 4"+ for west and north of the city! haha! bounce

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Dunnzoo Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:50 pm

@amugs wrote:Zoo - off the accuweather site which comes from NWS - that is strange

You mean INaccuweather? lol It is strange, so inconsistent, who's running this show anyways?

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 2:57 pm

@amugs wrote:11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 SrefNE_prec_snowmn12_033
Cutoff is just east of me but still gives me 4-6. I'll take it lol!
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4267
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:05 pm

I would like to see the temps start to steadily drop about now. That would be a good start.

Lots of nice colors on those maps but like Doc I've seen these things turn many times over the years for better or worse in the last 24 hours. I'm now convinced enough that anything less than 6 inches in my area I will view as a major letdown.

Imagine letting snow affect your moods like that. There must be a name for what we all have or some kind of mutant gene that makes us all like this. With that said if there was ever a cure I'd want no part of the cure.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:09 pm

Terminally acute snowcoholism.Had it since age 10 and here I sit on this board with all the youngster snow addicts,LOL.

No cure possible nor needed,LOL!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:21 pm

So as we wait how does the system look someone earlier mentioned that it looked pretty amped.
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:24 pm

On weatherbell for the 18Z Hi-Res NAM, it says "Entire Grid Undefined" ugh.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:25 pm

I'm in the Bronx today Doc. You have a current temperature by us?
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:26 pm

50.3 cp
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:29 pm

Geez. That's a long way to go. Hope temps start dropping like a rock after sunset.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:30 pm

@amugs wrote:11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 SrefNE_prec_snowmn12_033

looks like that gives me around 4-5" i'll take it but it will be interesting to see when the snow actually starts to stick
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:31 pm

Dunno.Lot's of cloud cover, high to middle types.Don't see much radiational cooling but they say a cold front passed earlier.Will be monitoring that til late tonight.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7254
Reputation : 215
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:37 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Dunno.Lot's of cloud cover, high to middle types.Don't see much radiational cooling but they say a cold front passed earlier.Will be monitoring that til late tonight.

upton still has a generic 4-8" from this morning no change but they have made changes today flip flopping on this, at one point they had 4-6 they now pulled back and put 2-4" i think that's a safe bet at this point they should leave it as is

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 765urwkytw
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:39 pm

NWS lowered ne again to 4-6 ugg nail biter, those SREF are crazy 1.25qpf thats a foot!  And about 8-9 for me on the other one, at this point I have no idea what the expect.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:41 pm

RJ the 6-8 was pulled back too, it was down into southern WC.  It will waffle into tomorrow I can bet on that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:42 pm

Wonder when and if Warnings will be brough south, probably last minute as long as at least 6 is in forecast, that is the threshold for warning right?  Also with possible winds is there the chance for blizzard conditions or possible watches etc, or will they be below criteria, I know blizzard has nothing to do with totals.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by RJB8525 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:43 pm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Scientists-throwing-computer-out-of-window-2504
as i upload this upton jumped the gun on me, downgraded to advisory

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN
 WESTCHESTER COUNTY...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN NEW
 LONDON...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD
 CHANGE TO PRIMARILY SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
 PERIODS OF RAIN MIXING IN EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
 TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.


Last edited by RJB8525 on Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
RJB8525
RJB8525
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1970
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 35
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:43 pm

Aww man watch was dropped for coastal areas to WWA, dang!  Once they do that theres a little liklihood it will go back to a warning, or could it still?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18385
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:44 pm

This may be the first time my snow map (1-3 or 2-4) is lower than Upton (4-6)  for the City.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20074
Reputation : 313
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 2 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 25 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 13 ... 25  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum