NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Page 4 of 25 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 14 ... 25  Next

Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by rb924119 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:14 pm

Can somebody please post the hi-res NAM map when it comes out? Thanks!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by cooladi Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:15 pm

Frank, your map does line up well with NWS. What I prefer about your forecasts, though, is that you always allow for the possibility that things can change, where the pros are under so much pressure they have to set things in stone, walking a fine line between warning people and remaining somewhat conservative in the event things don't come to fruition. The public is extremely fickle.

cooladi
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 185
Reputation : 2
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : East Rockaway, NY 11518

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:24 pm

Wow at NAM, bomb
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:30 pm

Nj what u think about coast only being wwa? Think that could change again to a wsw?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:38 pm

18z GFS is very warm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

That would be rain in NYC and Newark is right on boarder

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:39 pm

18z RGEM is about 26mm of snow for NYC

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 PT_PN_024_0000

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:39 pm

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 RR3NvZy

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:40 pm

Oh cricky models still not in agreement
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:40 pm

18z runs going crazy. GFS tracking west of BM, warming all layers and putting many along the coast in rain. RGEM has crazy cut-offs. This storm is TOUGH forecast. Madonne.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20004
Reputation : 311
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 RR3NvZy

Very tight gradient gonna setup, im in the 25-30 right now but its close
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Math23x7 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM is about 26mm of snow for NYC

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 PT_PN_024_0000

26 mm is just over 1 inch.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2288
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:46 pm

What a terrible forecast god...
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Guest Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:47 pm

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again. Ill believe it when I see it. I love snow. Live for it actually, but to expect significant snow in November on Long Island when it's still 51 degrees right now and was almost 70 yesterday is crazy. I hope I'm wrong but looks bad for us here.

I've never trusted the hype on this storm. That being said my area is still under a WWA for 3 to 5. I'll take that in a heartbeat and for every storm coming this winter. If we get 8 storms conservatively between now and early March and average 3 to 5 that's anywhere from 24 to 40 inches here on the coast. Sign for that now!!!!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:57 pm

Math that's 1 inch qpf so 10 inches snow if not mistaken
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by sroc4 Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:57 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I said it yesterday and I'll say it again.  Ill believe it when I see it.  I love snow.  Live for it actually, but to expect significant snow in November on Long Island when it's still 51 degrees right now and was almost 70 yesterday is crazy.  I hope I'm wrong but looks bad for us here.

I've never trusted the hype on this storm.  That being said my area is still under a WWA for 3 to 5.  I'll take that in a heartbeat and for every storm coming this winter.  If we get 8 storms conservatively between now and early March and average 3 to 5 that's anywhere from 24 to 40 inches here on the coast.  Sign for that now!!!!

syo Im next in line. Where do I sign? With how sharp these cutoffs look to be I may be the lone ranger out here in eastern Suffolk watching the R/S line ever so close, throwing popcorn at it.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6869
Reputation : 292
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 4:58 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM is about 26mm of snow for NYC

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 PT_PN_024_0000

Of snow? Or precip?
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by jmanley32 Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:00 pm

Soul 25 mm qpf which is 1 inch qpf which is 10 inches snow. Obviously still a lot to iron out. Now cast soon.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:40 pm

NWS now has me back to all snow for the entire event, 7 to 13 inches total.They had mentioned rain/snow turning to all snow by noon.Maybe a colder trend for all? Supposed to start at daybreak.Lousy commute tomorrow evening.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by docstox12 Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:43 pm

National radar, Florida massive moisture.Looks like embedded t storms to me.If that moisture comes up the coast, Katie bar the door!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7242
Reputation : 214
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 70
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by GreyBeard Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:58 pm

Predicted accumulations for Long Island went from 3-7 down to 1-3.Storm watch now weather advisory. Looks like a bust out here if you are a snow lover.

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 591
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : eastern nassau county

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:04 pm

Lee Goldberg just isn't having it. He said it trended warmer this evening and sees 1-2 inches in the city at most. He even pushed the 6" line further north & west. On to DECEMBER! :-D
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2739
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by LBC1985 Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:10 pm

Sroc, you aren't the lone ranger out here on eastern LI. I'm also in Wading River, so I feel your pain.  Sad

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I said it yesterday and I'll say it again.  Ill believe it when I see it.  I love snow.  Live for it actually, but to expect significant snow in November on Long Island when it's still 51 degrees right now and was almost 70 yesterday is crazy.  I hope I'm wrong but looks bad for us here.

I've never trusted the hype on this storm.  That being said my area is still under a WWA for 3 to 5.  I'll take that in a heartbeat and for every storm coming this winter.  If we get 8 storms conservatively between now and early March and average 3 to 5 that's anywhere from 24 to 40 inches here on the coast.  Sign for that now!!!!

syo Im next in line.  Where do I sign?  With how sharp these cutoffs look to be I may be the lone ranger out here in eastern Suffolk watching the R/S line ever so close, throwing popcorn at it.

LBC1985

Posts : 4
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 36
Location : Long Island

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:12 pm

This has huge potential to bust either way within 20 miles of I95 especially N and W and right along, honestly could be a slushy couple inches or near a foot or ten inches, worst forecast in a long time.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:16 pm

For example 18z RGEM has 10"+ imby meanwhile GFS has a few slushy inches, should be noted GFS ens a bit colder than op.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by aiannone Tue Nov 25, 2014 6:17 pm

Something about this storm gives me a gut feeling that there will be SURPRISES on the coast. Not wishcasting, just saying my gut feeling. I've also seen this happen before (Post Sandy storm that was forecasted to be "rain" at the coast).
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map - Page 4 Empty Re: 11/26 Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Part 3: Obs Thread and Final Snow Map

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 25 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 14 ... 25  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum