11/26/14 Storm in Review:

11/26/14 Storm in Review:

1. As adamant as the models were with the storm taking a track right on the BM, especially the GFS, it ended up tracking just inside the BM which was a track the EURO was showing consistently. This allowed warmer air to surge from off the coast and keep the mid-levels above freezing, for the most part, around the NYC Metro area.

2. The cold air mass this storm was working with was very antecedent and that will not cut it in November. The core of the arctic air was bottled up around the G/L and lower Canada.

3. Lack of phasing with the polar s/w lead to poor dynamics. The southern stream was way ahead of the northern s/w and the storm never got below 1000mb (at our latitude).

4. Convection was impressive for interior PA and much of that had to do with the impressive 200-300 mb jet streak located on top of the interior northeast at that time. This was also a reason why the storm did track a little closer to the coast, on top of +NAO and lack of 50/50 or HP to the north.

Overall, it was an extremely tough forecast. Some areas under-performed while others over-performed. In the end, it brought a white Thanksgiving to many people and put us in winter mode.

Grade: C

Look for big changes in the upper level pattern come mid to late December. I really like Christmas week for our winter pattern to come to fruition (sustained +PNA/-NAO/-AO). Stratosphere is doing its dirty work as we speak. Hope everyone had a nice holiday!

Hey Frank don't kick yourself too much on the busts, this was nearly impossible to correctly predict, your awesome at getting most of our storms near right, looking forward to many more maps from you and I am sure they will do well. Being the time of year too makes it all the harder.

Thanks jman I usually do these reviews after storms just to recap what went right and wrong and what we can take away from it. Helps me grow as a forecaster, too.

The minor snow totals still set some records for the date.
OLD RECORD:
Lga: 0.4" (0.1" 1985)
JFK: 0.1" (0)
Islip: Trace (0)

Frank,

Do not get down or beat yourself up on this storm - very difficult storm and you did an excellent job forecasting this one with the factors given. Keep up the great/phenomenal met work and discussion/information and i look forward to more, many more storms this winter which starts in less than two hours - meteorological winter that is!!

Mugs