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December 2014 Obs and Discussions

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dsix85
nutleyblizzard
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algae888
CPcantmeasuresnow
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HeresL
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docstox12
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December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: December 2014 Obs and Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:48 pm

@sabamfa wrote:So, I'm going to be rained out Saturday night going to look at the tree in the city, huh? =\

Yea...sorry Mad

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Post by sabamfa Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:07 pm

I'm going tomorrow night now. That should be a better option, right?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:08 pm

@sabamfa wrote:I'm going tomorrow night now. That should be a better option, right?

yup!!!

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:46 am

29* and light n/e wind.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:57 am

18.8 it's colder than I expected this morning.

An interesting early week shaping up. NWS playing it both ways right now.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:07 am

19.2, 30.63 R. Didn't expect it to be this cold this morning.NWS has us snow Mon,Mon night and snow/rain Tues then snow Tues night.It is an interesting scenario.

They are looking at mixed precip later this afternoon and early tonight here before a changeover to all rain tonight.That looks accurate considering these low morning temps.
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:08 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:18.8 it's colder than I expected this morning.

An interesting early week shaping up. NWS playing it both ways right now.

yes it is cp and I think temps are going to trend down the next 7+ days as models are not handling low level cold air as frank and some mets have said recently. we have been having good location of HP to our north with north winds which should continue. we should not under estimate this. plus most of cold air is locked up over north eastern Canada at the moment so any north wind can tap into that. sunday and Monday we are forecast to have 20-30 mph northerly winds which should drive down cold air into our area.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:13 am

You're right,Al,the cold air is available up north to tap into under the right circumstances.The big snowstorms find a way to do that.We'll see.
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:23 am

here is 6z gfs surface temps for 7am Monday.

December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_namer_078_10m_wnd_precip
most of northern N/E near o and in canada below zero

December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Nam_namer_006_10m_wnd_precip

this is nam actual air temps this morning. -20* in N/E canada


Last edited by algae888 on Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:41 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:29 am

this is 6z nam surface temps for same time 7am Monday. even colder than gfs

December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Nam_namer_078_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:05 am

Nice al. Let's hope this. I was saying last night it felt a lot colder than I thought it would.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:05 am

27* this morning - 3* colder than anticipated - here is the deal IMO from the maps - a lot of low level cold air up there in NE Candada that is working it way South - after this storm Saturday passes it will funnel more down this way Sunday through Monday - those who called for a torch are not going to get it the models doing a piss poor job of this LLC (low level cold air) IMO.

CP SNOW and DOC you guys rock with this storm as well - interior will do good if not great - just have to keep the track not so close to the coast

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:07 am

Mugs let's bring some decent white to coast tues. We have gotten no love but a slush 2 inched
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:32 am

O s it possible that snow mixed with tonight and sat storm even to coast? Nws has that in my forecast.
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:02 am

Got down to -1 here in Lyndonville, VT last night. Currently sitting at 8.3* under sunny skies with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect beginning at 7pm this evening and ending Midnight Saturday for 3-5" of snow and then a trace to a glaze of ice.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:08 am

ok folks, what is your favorite simulated radar? I need to see if we have a window of lighter or no rain for tomorrow from 5:30 - 7:30 p.m., huge town Holiday Parade! The NAM shows a break in the action in the afternoon tomorrow from about noon to 4, but I need it later!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:28 am

Here is the NAM Sim Radar for tomorrow Janet. Lull ends around midnight Saturday
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_17
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_18
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_19
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_20
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_21

Now 1am:
December 2014 Obs and Discussions - Page 4 Hires_22
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:43 am

hmmmm, look at this, it's different

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_030_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=sim_reflectivity&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141205+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0


sorry, still can't get images to post...ugh

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:02 am

That's a lot of rain NWS forecast for Sat looks like this system is coming in strong, this would be good or bad for 9/10th event? Looks like another crazy wind day on sunday, and snow on back end? : )

OVERRUNNING RAINS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SAT...COULD INTENSIFY SAT NIGHT
IN WAKE OF OCCLUDED FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GOOD FRONTOGENETIC BANDING
SIGNAL OVER THE AREA TO THE NW OF LOW PRESSURE. BRUNT OF
COLD AIR REMAINS SHUNTED TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
FILTER IN FOR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON BACKSIDE FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE...PRECIP
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MAIN HAZARD LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN LOOKS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH AS POLAR HIGH BUILDS INTO ONTARIO QUEBEC AND
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET.
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:55 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:hmmmm, look at this, it's different

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_030_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_reflectivity&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141205+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0


sorry, still can't get images to post...ugh

That's 1pm, its pretty similar.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:44 pm

36* and rain = Did I tell you how I HATE THIS FRICKIN" WEATHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Time for Hot Apple Cider and Honey Jack Daniels - homemade - YUM YUM on a night like tonight and the fireplace crankin!

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:47 pm

33.8, 85%. 30.51 F. Light rain.UGH
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:20 pm

31.8 and rain. Nothing freezing as temperature is marginal.

Nasty out. Freezing rain advisory for western portions of Orange County, here in the eastern portions of the county we should stay near or just above freezing.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:42 pm

For those curious about tomorrow's weather, there may be a break from Noon-3pm, but it should start back up again by 4pm or sooner.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:23 pm

.4" in bucket = did I mention how i hate this weather??!! Oh and 36.8*

Good night all

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