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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:39 pm

Please read the blog for all the details! At the bottom of the blog, I have a couple scenario maps

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/12/strong-coastal-storm-possible-dec-9th.html

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:44 pm

GGEM still has it...strong storm! All rain.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:52 pm

Great writeup Frank, and I like what I hear, the coast has a chance. When you say storm winds what level winds is that classified as and are you talking just immediate coast or NYC metro area and suburbs? If the senario 1 happens I could see ares with the "B" word possible? I know jumping the gun but you have me very intrigued, when you are I like others do very much trust in your input as you are our leader. The days will go by and we will see soon enough. BTW 00z CMC has all rain but a ton 4-5 inches and pretty high winds. Are you still concerned about a possible ice storm? Your a trouper to put this out tonight : ) Thanks
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:55 pm

00z UKMET looks like CMC

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th Post-90-0-68067800-1417754720

@Jman- this is definitely starting at rain for us. No question about it. We'll see if there is a possibility of a changeover to snow. When I say "area" in my blog, I reference all of NYC Metro. Some members of this forum who live further north and west have a good chance of significant snow if Scenario #1 came to fruition.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:55 pm

Frank with the possible bombing out like you mentioned could the CMC actually be snow bringing in its own cold etc (not sure of the technical wording) and possibly being not shown and thus shows all rain? If not so is it only the Euro that brings us the chance of snow?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:57 pm

of course the friggin northerns lol, oh well it will be interesting wither way, and yes I understood it starts as rain, but you have that rain/heavy snow area only about 50 miles or less to my north, so a slight change and we could see that possibly.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:57 pm

CMC is not that strong actually. Between 995mb - 1000mb so cold air may not get down to the coast in that run.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:58 pm

Yeah saw that def, big change from the 972mb it showed earlier run. Days to go lots of changes I am sure. I know you will keep us posted.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 04, 2014 11:59 pm

God this could be a significant storm. As much as i dont want a huge rainstorm gotta embrace it. The fact its shown up on several foreign runs in a row and its getting closer means im beginning to increase confidence in a significant storm impacting the region. Mostly rain/wind around here as it stands now and snow further north.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:02 am

Frank I know you do not want to give specific numbers but what is "storm" level winds range to you mean? Never heard it used in that term except over the ocean.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:03 am

NJ any big storm to me can be exciting, even a rain and wind storm, but thats just me. Of course I'd much prefer snow. And there is still a shot at that later after the rain. In my gut it says this thing bombs the hell out and blasts the area and nothern areas get it good and we get the same impacts probably more wind but less snow.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:04 am

Could have been a typo-o, which paragraph? Or copy/paste the sentence here

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:08 am

Did you mean strong?

"A deepening storm off the coast combined with an HP located to the north could bring storm winds to the area."

Regardless storm level winds is a term from the beaufort scale is 55-63mph, are winds that level possible?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:10 am

Haha, yea I meant strong.

If I had to guess, 30-40 mph sustained possible with gusts over 50 mph. That's if the storm deepens sub 980 mb.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:11 am

Right so you were right with the word storm anyways : ) CMC has me total out at 4-5 inches of rain coupled with winds like that and a already saturated soft ground here be a concern for uprooted trees, could be a nasty storm IF it pulls the bomb out off.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:14 am

CMC rainfall totals in Franks words madonne....


Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th Cmc_ra10
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:20 am

Geez,  Madonne is right

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:23 am

a little over one inch from Sat, and 3-5+ in a 12-18 hr period from hrs 108-120. If this bombs out anymore and does draw in the cold are this could be quite a snowstorm even to the coast after a nasty obscene rainfall.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:24 am

Are you up for the Euro or gonna check it in the morning?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:25 am

I've been liking this set up, hence making the scroll a little sooner than I usually would. But this potential has been showing up for a few days now. Only 4 days away.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:26 am

Idk..probably morning

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:30 am

CMC and Euro have been very consistent, and as I am sure you have seen the ensembles even more so. Did you see the LP locations map from 12z? I will post if not, coming more consolidated, GFS like you I think and others (pro mets too) believe it is OTL. Probably won't show anything till day of lol. But it will be interesting to see what models show saturday night into sunday as that system gets involved like u said. Also Euro ensemble snow maps have some crushers even for the immediate area, yes not reliable but still intriguing.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:36 am

I put the monthly precipitation totals for every month for Central Park going back to January 1869 onto Microsoft Excel and it's interesting to note that after the 72.81" it got in 2011 (2nd wettest only behind 1983's 80.56") 2012 and 2013 would be much drier at 38.51" and 46.32", respectively.

Now as of December 4th, it is at 47.98" for 2014. The 1981-2010 annual mean is 49.94." So it is 1.97" away from exceeding this normal. If it does not happen with the weekend storm, it would almost certainly happen with the mid week storm (given it happens).

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 1:34 am

I have no idea what the Euro just did. Stalled the storm

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 2:36 am

Is it my Accupro meshing two runs together or did the EURO just show a storm track that goes up around Boston then retrogrades south over NYC and off the Jersey coast and sits around for a couple days. Im confused.
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