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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:11 pm

Again, 21z SREF in LR take FWIW but some show a bomb.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 5 F87_110
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:24 pm

Wow, some of those look wickedly intense, can't see the lowest pressures though.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:33 pm

#13 is insane, and its not even up here yet, that would cause a lot of problems and damaging winds.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:44 pm

Let's see what 00z GFS does

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:46 pm

Won't be surprised if it still is not much, think CMC and Euro are on it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:53 pm

GFS is scenario #2 from my blog 

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 5 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Made improvements at H5 though so could be trending toward GGEM/EURO

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:59 pm

I am assuming you are still leaning toward senario 1 like u said earlier though? It is coming a bit more in line with the CMC and Euro and I think it will eventually come all the way to them.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:04 pm

GGEM/EURO should be interesting. Just had a chance to look at Euro H5 vort and noticed it really digs the northern stream in nicely and has a little more southern energy to work with. H5 closes off south of our area Tuesday night. GFS obviously digs the northern stream a little later resulting in H5 closing off in new England. Positive strides though. 

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am assuming you are still leaning toward senario 1 like u said earlier though? It is coming a bit more in line with the CMC and Euro and I think it will eventually come all the way to them.

Yes I am

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:21 pm

Frank if you look at posts earlier the overwhelming consensus is the GFS is terrible with so much going on. Just like last winter and has a bad verification record.

Ain't staying up for Euro but I have feeling it shows a closed of low just to the south and bombs out just my guy on this.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:23 pm

I will be up for Euro, I will post on it if no one else will be up. Mugs I agree, if not tonight at latest IMO once Sat storm moves out.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:32 pm

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

00z ggem

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:33 pm

Dayumm, tahts some heavy precip, still really warm though if I am seeing things right.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:34 pm

Pretty quick moving too

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:35 pm

Yeah it is, actually it lightest precip its shown yet, do you by it? It is afterall a model you said is terrible.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:36 pm

I trust it more than GFS with this storm judging off of H5 maps

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:37 pm

Yeah, overall it does appear more likely but the speed, the stall did not happen with CMC, do you think that the Euro was off with that? That has to do with if the HP is to the north for long enough right?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:57 pm

Yes...given that were still in a progressive pattern and we have no blocking, models may trend away from the cutoff storm idea.

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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:12 am

0z GFS and 12z EURO still give me a significant snowstorm up here. Euro is a lot better though in terms of accumulations lol. Going to be a fun few days to track. I am up waiting for the Euro for next week's snowstorm while tracking the snow coming down right now lmao. Gotta love VT!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:48 am

Alex Euro has begun.
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:53 am

Yupp, looking at it right now. Still have a little time before it comes into range
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:00 am

Euro has a high of 15* for NVT Sunday. Toasty! Mid 30's for the coast
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:11 am

Euro is going way west
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:14 am

Looks that way, been west past few runs this looks like it could be another stall look at the HP up north.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:15 am

Damn, that thing has a 1028mb high wrapped around it on this run. But very warm,
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