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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Empty Re: Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:16 am

At 90 hrs heavy rain and wind gusts to 58mph+ in the area thats bad news.
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:18 am

Well Euro is mostly rain for the Northeast, even northern areas
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:19 am

Yeah but you see how slow it is it gets stuck this could be a serious rain and wind event. Yes of course we want snow but this may be a whole different ordeal. But it is weaker.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:20 am

Ahhh Alex you should see the snow map on wxbell you are gonna be in heaven if it verifies.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:26 am

At 120 the dang thing gets to 990 and is heading back east, jeeze.
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Ahhh Alex you should see the snow map on wxbell you are gonna be in heaven if it verifies.

Way too high. This was not as good as the 12z run. Much warmer air pulled in
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:33 am

Euro run is insane, lasts from 90 hrs through 144 and still there but dying out of moisture. The snow map is unreal for northern areas and even in to MA but not into the area. We get 3+ inches of rain and periods of wind gusts ranging from 30-60mph.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:34 am

What a crazy Euro run once again. The low occluded further south again. The storm lasts from hour 96-150 on this run. The whole area gets a lot of rain. As the low moves northeast and just sits and spins, the Euro throws back light snow for the majority of the area for a while as the cold air comes in. I'm ready to track this all weekend.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:35 am

For those that didn't see it:

90hrs

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Euro_911
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:36 am

Euro 96 hrs

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Euro_912
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:37 am

Looking further into it, Euro is rain to snow for NVT with almost 2in of qpf frozen after an inch of rain and it lasts until like 4pm thursday lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:37 am

Snow totally agree, even brings a bit of snow down to the coast not much, up north gets crushed according to wxbell but it doesnt make much sense so unless anyone wants to see it real bad I will not post it.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:39 am

Hr 120

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Euro_111
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:40 am

Euro 132, jeeze

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Euro_112
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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:41 am

Non accumulating snow towards the coast for a while. It just spins itself out.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:42 am

From there it pulls out to the NE. QPF totals madonne!

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Euro_q10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:45 am

Highest time of winds is from 90-102 hrs, with all the rain today and then again trees could come down with saturated grounds.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Winds_10

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:46 am

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 Winds_11
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Post by aiannone Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:52 am

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 10799_10
Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 6 10671210
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:54 am

Heh oh good Alex is gonna be the one beaten for this post, lol jk man, but get ready for a lot of our members to be jelous!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:57 am

Still a ways to go, I still think if this thing can bomb out (which it didnt do on this run) we can get snows down to the coast quicker than this run.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:03 am

At this juncture, NWS putting me down for 2-4 inches snow on the front end but definitely a warmer solution now with rain/snow tues and tues night and back end snow showers.Coast looks like mostly rain.Looking now like much further N , New England gets blasted with this one.Still early, though, so we'll know better late Sunday night.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:09 am

@aiannone wrote:Looking further into it, Euro is rain to snow for NVT with almost 2in of qpf frozen after an inch of rain and it lasts until like 4pm thursday lol

Looking at Inaacuweather's new snow map, you are definitely in the jackpot zone on this one.A typical northern NE snowstorm of the type most common years ago when the City area's got mix to heavy rain.They are saying a foot! Enjoy and send some of those great pictures you take!
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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:35 am

I don't think a track so far west like the EURO OP shows is likely (within its own camp) because it is a more amplified outlier to its own ensemble. A track a tad further east seems likely to me at this point based on the H5 spaghettis. This type of track (right around or just inside the BM) appears to also have support from the GooFuS ensembles (for whatever that's worth lol), but not from the Canadian, which appears to insist on a tighter track to the coast. However, the Canadian just doesn't look right with respect to its precip shield, so I don't exactly know where I stand with my trust level on that yet lol Just my thoughts. Still tons of time for this thing to shimmy around; gotta play the waiting game and see what we end up with on tomorrows runs.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:18 am

Starting to believe this storm could be northern stream driven and a phase may be unlikely, that's why you're not seeing this storm on latest model runs deepen the way it did a few days ago. If this is the case, scenario #2 is most likely.

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