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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:43 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Is it my Accupro meshing two runs together or did the EURO just show a storm track that goes up around Boston then retrogrades south over NYC and off the Jersey coast and sits around for a couple days. Im confused.

Oh that sounds funnnnnnn. lol
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:43 am

looks like the system for sat. is going to be on the stronger side and pull down cold air with a strong north wind sunday and Monday. from what i'm hearing that should have a positive impact on system for tues-wens in regards to us seeing snow. nam has us very cold sun. night and Monday with temps about 10* below normal. interesting to see how this all plays out. btw 6z gfs slowly making progress towards other models. it should catch on by Tuesday.lol
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:38 am

didn't know where to put this so put it here since this is where most of us will be the next few days. this is steve d take on model volatility

LONG RANGE – DAYS 8 THROUGH 15:  Models are having a difficult time handling the pattern change on the way and thus have become unreliable past day 3 let alone past day 7.  Note the guidance did not have a hint of storm potential seven days out or beyond.  In case of GFS, still doesn’t!  Volatility is VERY HIGH.

I couldn't agree more!!!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:12 am

The euro didn't look all that impressive think it will start to show a more intense and colder storm in the coming cmc and euro
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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:The euro didn't look all that impressive think it will start to show a more intense and colder storm in the coming cmc and euro
You are joking right. The euro stalled out and retrograded. It's impressive.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:00 am

No it shows no snow I meant not for anywhere near coast anyways
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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:02 am

@jmanley32 wrote:No it shows no snow I meant not for anywhere near coast anyways
Gotcha, it's a impressive system verbatium mostly due to longevity.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:04 am

True that it is. So maybe those things I mention will change.all I know is its 32 here now and that was not forecasted.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:05 am

It's Not All That Deep Would Like To See That Sub 980 Smile
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:07 am

I have a feeling that will change. Have cold air sitting due north and northeast of us is a nice setup if the storm decides to bomb out off the coast. Plus the retrograding of the Euro is. Very intriguing. There's a lot to be ironed out here but this has the potential to be a good snow maker in the HV. The coastal areas not out of it but things will have to workout perfectly IMO.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:12 am

NCEP
Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 2 95ep48iwbg_fill

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:15 am

What's odd to me is with the length I was expect to see qpf more like cmc with 4 to 5 inches rsin. But it's near 2 or 3 tops and cmc not as long. Didn't make sense to me.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:19 am

Mugs what did u post some reason mobile won't show.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:19 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have a feeling that will change. Have cold air sitting due north and northeast of us is a nice setup if the storm decides to bomb out off the coast. Plus the retrograding of the Euro is. Very intriguing. There's a lot to be ironed out here but this has the potential to be a good snow maker in the HV. The coastal areas not out of it but things will have to workout perfectly IMO.

Retrograde - 2-26-10, 1978 blizzard - You have other storms to analog - problem being they were in Feb and the Atlantic was freezing so it was snow

CP exactly - stated this in the December thread - a lot of cold air to work with just need this bad boy to close off just South of LI and pull that down if not the coast stays rain - stale air mass aint going to get er done this time of year with a bathtub of the Atlantic pumping - if this were Jan or Feb or march for that matter this is not a BIG issue but a slight one at best.

That HP to the North(Maine/Quebec0 slides east - need that to stay a bit while longer but here is no blocking to hold it in place - once it slides it is up to the storm to make it happen - stale air is not fight against the mighty Atlantic this time of year.

Fun to track!!

Models will change 6 times between now and then just keep an eye on the H5 level cyclops

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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:04 am

GFS is always the last model to come on board
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:07 am

Hey snow it looks to be coming in a bit. Latest Upton disco: Looks like they leaning to a pretty big storm. Winds I predict could be warning level, this weekend may be advisory level so with all that coupled with the rain we could be dealing with some trees uprooting along coastal areas with saturated ground especially if any wet snow sticks to trees (if we get any down here at all).

FURTHER UPSTREAM...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN GEFS/GFS AND
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN
STREAM...PAC..AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THE LATTER GROUP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PHASED AND
STRONGLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING THE EAST COAST AND
THEN RESIDING OVER THE NORTHEAST TUE/WED...WITH OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING N/NE UP THE NE COAST IN
RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY AND AFFECTING THE REGION WITH SNOW/RAIN AND
WIND MONDAY NIGHT INTO WED...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING EVEN LONGER.
GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED...BUT KEEP UNPHASED FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MAINLY
OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION. WITH OVERALL INCREASING MODEL CONVERGENCE TOWARDS THE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION...WITH
HIGHER POPS AND INCREASED WINDS FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED TIME
PERIOD. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON P-TYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS AT THIS
POINT...BUT WINTRY MIX (INTERIOR) TO RAIN COAST AND EAST APPEARS
REASONABLE.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:14 am

Wow, some into 970's mb

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 2 Low_lo10
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:15 am

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 2 Euro_l12
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:18 am

About 20% of Euro snow ensemble maps have decent to major snow even down to coast : )
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:23 am

mugs the fact that the NWS took that retrograde into their discussion is very intriging. Imagine if the below forecasted temps stay and we all get cold enough this could be a crazy storm for this early on.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:27 am

@Snow88 wrote:GFS is always the last model to come on board

Goo Fu S - SUCKS - when are we going to realize this with these complex phased type storms - I am sorry but even last winter I had these sentiments and the Euro kicked its but when are we getting the update on this going? 2015? Is the para replacing this - i forget but I read it is being delayed - what else is new.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:mugs the fact that the NWS took that retrograde into their discussion is very intriging.  Imagine if the below forecasted temps stay and we all get cold enough this could be a crazy storm for this early on.

True going to be very interesting but this first storm is the key that we get tonight into tomorrow if it can intensify and buckle the jet we can be in some good business here (down to eh coast)

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:32 am

mugs, it looks to be coming in strong, look at obs thread they mention frontogenesis with the first part possibly cuasing some backend snow and wind advisory level winds possible sat night into sunday, sounds amped to me : )
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:34 am

CMC is coming in way west has precip way into VA at hr 78 small LP off obx.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:37 am

Where are u getting the euro? It didnt even initalize yet if im not mistaken youre looking at last nights wacky run.
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