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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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GreyBeard
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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 Empty Re: Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

Post by algae888 Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:32 pm

it is east of 18z so far

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:38 pm

No I meant 18 z sorry.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:38 pm

Hour 69

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:40 pm

Look at where the isobars are pointing. This is headed toward the BM

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:41 pm

CCB setting up over eastern PA into central NY

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:43 pm

Low is occluding now per 00z NAM, looks west of BM. Why are we following the NAM? Lol

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

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Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:43 pm

Yeah this storm is not done toying with us yet. Too many pieces on the table for this to be locked in. I agree with you, Frank, I think a track inside the BM is likely, but not by too much.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:45 pm

Its a bit stronger too. wxbell shows central pressure at that time stamp sub 995.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:46 pm

This is a very interesting and complex storm to come, more so than the last one and I thought that was a hard forecast.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:48 pm

No kiddin NJ.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:10 pm

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:11 pm

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 SAT_ERG2_IR4

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:15 pm

Ohh back side snow, i was trying to find something that showed nam actual central pressure according to this on tip LI its 985, def starting to bomb out. Oh wait NVM I just noted the west coast pressure, thats where the 985 is.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 Pressu10


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:16 pm

NAM has wind gusts 50-60mph over coast and NYC , LI CT and southern WC and northern jersey coast.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NAM has wind gusts 50-60mph over coast and NYC , LI CT and southern WC and northern jersey coast.

J, lol, I love your posts and your enthusiasm..especially for winds during a storm. I remember being a kid and thinking wind was so mind blowing of a concept...it could actually break trees and you can't even see it! ;-) But models overdo winds usually and you have to look at all the layers aloft and if certain speeds will make it to surface. Like NJ said, there's no tight gradient caused by a HP. Not to say we can't have winds, just don't see this being the main story.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:40 pm

Soul there is a strong HP, thats whats blocking the storm on Euro. But you can have your opinion and I know what you are saying, there is a lot more to it.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:42 pm

It will not be a issue for the whole event, but when it initially pushes in for about 12 hrs I think we will have some pretty high winds, but I could be wrong. If I am no biggie, just looking for something to be wild with this storm. Flooding rains is nothing fun about it.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:44 pm

Man, I hope we get snow outta this...I have had ENOUGH of this friggin' rain. We had our town holiday parade and the rain just did not give us a break. Fortunately we have an awesome community and people still came out for it. But I like where these models are heading...

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:46 pm

Dunzoo, I was think bout u today, sorry yeah it was ick out.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:48 pm

Dunzoo, I do too, and remember temps have not exactly been modeled well even 12 hrs before so we could have a whole different story come crunch time, this forecast is exciting to say the least, if it busts oh well, all these storms means to me that we will get blasted by at lest one. I mean jeeze its been one noreaster a week pretty much.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:49 pm

GFS not deepening as much as other models. Rain to possible snow. Especially in elevations in northern NY and NY

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f75

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:50 pm

This MIGHT be snow for some of us. Have to look at soundings

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 12 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f78

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:50 pm

Why are we watching the GFS lol, NWS has thrown it way out, actually taking EC/NAM ide which i amazing never heard that before.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It will not be a issue for the whole event, but when it initially pushes in for about 12 hrs I think we will have some pretty high winds, but I could be wrong.  If I am no biggie, just looking for something to be wild with this storm.  Flooding rains is nothing fun about it.

I hear ya. I pray we get some back end snows or at least something fun from the ULL like Rayno was talking about earlier. I gotta say, this cold rain/piss spritz that's been going on in the city the past week is really the worst weather on earth IMO. It drives me bat s*** crazy. Lol. SNOW ALREADY!!!!!!
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:51 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Dunzoo, I was think bout u today, sorry yeah it was ick out.

Thankfully there were Open Houses and adult beverages a-plenty after the parade drunken

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:51 pm

Oh shoot the 0 line is to the east of me and that heavy blue right over me oh giggidy!
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:53 pm

Frank accoriding to wxbell snowmap as the LP moves in its accumulating snow!
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