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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:30 pm

I can say most people on this forum can expect mainly rain.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 07, 2014 8:31 pm

SNOW, happy anniversary to you and the Mrs. and I do hope it's a nice ,cozy snowy day for the both of you to enjoy.

All is well here, the usual 64 year old aches,pains and blurry cataract vision,LOL.

Later ,Friend!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:03 pm

Nice big rainstorm to make the first half of the week wet, wouldnt bet on any backend snow
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:09 pm

Nws still calling for it has snow with rain on wed and thurs. But I'm not bet on anything this going to be a nowcast in terms of rain snow and wind speeds
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:12 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@mako460 wrote:The context is that it is only the 7th of December weather wise.  We have a long way to go for this winter.  Normally we dont see much snow south of I95 until the end of December.  We have been spoiled the last 2 years.  Be patient and it will come.  

This. I'm sorry if was a bit vague but this past week has been one heck of a week and I'm a bit burnt out. Bottom line is this is not a storm for most of us. It just isn't. It never really was. I'll be happy with a few flakes at some point overnight wed or Thursday. The current pattern stinks for the coastal plain to see snow so no need to feel burned by it. For us along the immediate coast this is not even close to a near miss. For hose in NW Nj and the lower to mid HV may have the near miss. Again im a bit burnt out from work et al. So I'm a bit more of a jerk for a lack of a better term so for I apologize. Btw. It's not winter yet. It just so happens that the first real threat for snow for the coast will occur shortly after the winter solstice.

WOAH SLOW DOWN EVERYBODY!!
SROC4 is one of the go to guys hear.  I always look forward to his posts.  DON"T ANYONE ACCUSE HIM OR THINK FOR A SECOND he was being disrespectful or Nasty in his earlier post about it being DEC. 7th.  My response and question to him was so that I could understand if he meant either...
1.  It's only 12/7 and early in the winter or
2.  It's 12/7 we have other things we should be thinking about.

SORRY IF I CAUSED YOU ANG GRIEF MY LI BROTHER.  DIDN'T THINK ANYONE WOULD TAKE IT THE WAY THEY DID!!

Syo, the way these storms are dumping big qpf your way, your area is gonna get slammed once the cold air sets in.The moisture just keeps coming.Frustrating right now for sure, but I like the pattern of the moisture coming up constantly.

I hear you and I know you're right.. Just sucks!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:13 pm

Hey jman what are we looking at on coast for wind
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:15 pm

Skins my local.from nws says gusts to 38. I've seen 40 plus on other sites and if it really intensifies imo we could see gusts over 50. Nw s mentions advisory may be needed but mostly eastern areas.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:16 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:They already posted a WSW for my area for Monday night until Wednesday for 7 or more inches of snow.
Now it's off to bed got to go to work tomorrow because I may be out on Tues. and Wed. lol !

He lives!! It takes a WSW to bring him out of his tree trunk.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:18 pm

Lol cp. Skins I'll check ur area in a few. Main headlines for coast will be lotsa rain and possibility of very strong winds. Not sure yet though.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:22 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Lol cp. Skins I'll check ur area in a few. Main headlines for coast will be lotsa rain and possibility of very strong winds. Not sure yet though.
ok thanks jman and this storm may last a few days. What are amount of qpf
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:25 pm

I'm starting to think that everybody sees rain now, even those of us in the mountains. Trends are tighter and tighter to the coast. Oh well, maybe next time :/

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:33 pm

skins 00z NAM snows winds as the storm comes up and hits the area being 20-30mph sustained, out on LI could be 25-40 sustained, so gusts easily in the 40-55mph range depending on where you are (of course it is the nam and ask someone said earlier models often over estimate winds but NWS did state that strong winds will have the ability to mix down with the frontogenesis. What is your zipcode?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:36 pm

Well for up here looks like 2-3 inches rain, could be more if we really get cranked. Tuesday is not gonna be a fun day for most. Sideways rain and IMO could see at least scattered power outages if those winds do mix down.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:36 pm

Actually, NAM 00z is very much different than 12z. A LOT less curvature with the coastal energy at H5. hmmmm

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:skins 00z NAM snows winds as the storm comes up and hits the area being 20-30mph sustained, out on LI could be 25-40 sustained, so gusts easily in the 40-55mph range depending on where you are (of course it is the nam and ask someone said earlier models often over estimate winds but NWS did state that strong winds will have the ability to mix down with the frontogenesis.  What is your zipcode?
08742 jman
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:44 pm

NAM at hr 81 has snow down into lower hudson valley/northern westchester.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:45 pm

yeah skins about what i was saying for up here.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:53 pm

For those who care NAM snow map. Still not in a good range yet, if it even has one lol.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 18 00z_na11
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:57 pm

Thanks Jman, I just gonna look for that ahahaha yeah, I must say, even though the surface low track is the same, I like the changes that it made at h5/H7. It is a little less amplified this run, which allows the flow to be a little weaker and more parallel to the coast versus perpendicular, specifically at H5. Gonna be interesting what the other models do.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:02 pm

According to this map (sometimes overdone, but I have seen it verify) has gusts 50-60 for northern jersey coast, into NYC area and LI 60-70gusts, damn. Hey The analog of Dec 1992 LGA had a gust to 77mph.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 18 Nam_wi10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:04 pm

Can't wait to get this storm over with! Such a tough forecast. GFS and EURO are still NOT in agreement, haha.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:05 pm

I know its rediculous Frank, are you even bothering staying up for runs tonight> I would say 12z tomorrow is our last real glimps before it becomes a nowcast.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I know its rediculous Frank, are you even bothering staying up for runs tonight> I would say 12z tomorrow is our last real glimps before it becomes a nowcast.

Yea I am issuing my map(s) tonight. Rain, wind, and snow.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:08 pm

Jman, could you post the NAM 12z snow map? Just curious.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:08 pm

oh right duh lol
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