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Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:43 am

@amugs wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS is always the last model to come on board

Goo Fu S - SUCKS - when are we going to realize this with these complex  phased type storms - I am sorry but even last winter I had these sentiments and the Euro kicked its but when are we getting the update on this going? 2015? Is the para replacing this - i forget but I read it is being delayed - what else is new.
Its doing an absolutely terrible job with this storm. It cant seem to compute these types of situations. Even the 84 hour NAM shows it, the 84 stinkin hour NAM.....
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:46 am

here is the h5 difference between the gfs and nam

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 3 Gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht
12z gfs

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 3 Nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht
12z nam

nam has much stronger pac and southern srteam energy which are starting to phase but northern stream to weak and to far north. gfs has stronger northern stream energy almost all n/s energy farther south than nam but not far enough. it closes low off over great lakes. neither of these outcomes are good for coastal areas if we want snow. what we want is a compromise off the two. phasing of the southern energy with the pac energy as shown on nam with a strong n/s energy ( as shown on the gfs) but digging further south. then bingo. the pieces are there just have to come together just right for us to see snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:48 am

Wow CMC centered right over NYC but much weaker 1000mb, advisory to warning level winds possible and rain (however wxbell snow maps show a ton of snow NW of city) but doesn't make sense.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 3 Cmc_9610

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:49 am

after looking at nam and feel it is handling storm better wouldn't be surprised if guidance comes west today
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:50 am

NAM not really in range in so use it FWIW, optimal use a couple days from now.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:52 am

Yes NJ it was from last night and NWS as I posted took that retrograde into their account. They seem to believe it, so maybe not so wacky.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:52 am

Well Al look at my CMC post if you want to talk west you got it there.
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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:54 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow CMC centered right over NYC but much weaker 1000mb, advisory to warning level winds possible and rain (however wxbell snow maps show a ton of snow NW of city) but doesn't make sense.

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 3 Cmc_9610

Nothing wrong with the look of GEM. Just more phasing early with the polar vort leading to a more amplified solution. Totally possible

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:56 am

Do you think that will allow for snow, possibly even south?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:57 am

I am curious what Al, was todays forecasted temp in yonkers its 37 right now, that to me sounds quite a bit cooler than expected.
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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Do you think that will allow for snow, possibly even south?
That's a no. A more amplified solution would be a coastal hugger which would touch most of the area like what the GEM shows. But with the polar vort phasing you'll get a deeper low and temps supporting snow for Inland areas to our north and west

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:02 pm

12z UKMET

Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th - Page 3 Gz_d5_10
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:02 pm

I think models are not going to get this right until sunday after first storm departs. to many pieces to sort out. so would not put much stock into any model right now. what they show today probably isn't going to happen. yes there will be a storm but it can end up hundred of miles from where its progged today.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:03 pm

Looks closed
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:03 pm

pretty much same as CMC, bit deeper. So coast would just see crazy amounts of rain and very strong winds? Because local forecasts are showing snow for yonkers (well a mix),
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:06 pm

No snow with this track
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I am curious what Al, was todays forecasted temp in yonkers its 37 right now, that to me sounds quite a bit cooler than expected.

forecast high is 45. not reaching that today. winds still n/e. however temps should rise tonight.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:12 pm

Models, including the GFS, are beginning to come around to the Scenario #1 idea I had in my blog from last night. It is often difficult to get cold air all the way to the coast in a cut-off storm situation, so I am still favoring rain for the immediate coast. There may be a changeover, but I am not forecasting that right now. Accumulating snowfall should be constrained ti areas well north and west of the city. 2+ inches of rain likely for immediate coast with wind as well.

Exact track of the low still uncertain at this time. Evolution at H5 keeps changing, hence the inconsistent model runs

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Post by Snow88 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:14 pm

Coastal Hugger on the Ukie and GGEM. A lot of rain for the coast. A lot of snow way inland.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:14 pm

Its 39 here with a forecast high of 43. As the storm approaches from the SW later it will probably drag in WWA and temps will probably hit the high later.. Even if they dont it doesnt really make any difference, this first storm is rain for pretty much everyone.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:16 pm

Morning Frank, glad to see you watching things, I figured this was going to trend toward the stronger. So you think it will be sub 980? Even though the models showing higher pressures? Winds would be a real concern especially at the coast, coupled with that kinda rain with previous rain two days before (which btw looks to be more than a inch) spells problems IMO.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:19 pm

12z GFS Op is a less-amplified outlier to its own ensemble.....yet again we see the GFS cave to the other global models lol WHAT A SHOCKER lmao

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:23 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS is always the last model to come on board

Goo Fu S - SUCKS - when are we going to realize this with these complex  phased type storms - I am sorry but even last winter I had these sentiments and the Euro kicked its but when are we getting the update on this going? 2015? Is the para replacing this - i forget but I read it is being delayed - what else is new.

I saw someone post this on FB describing the GFS. Pretty funny:

Gfs is like a crack head living in the projects trying to stay clean. Living in a halfway house by day, tempted for the rock by night. Trying to do right, gets wrapped back up into it's b.s, and sh-ts the bed. You never know what's going through its mind.....

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:39 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:GFS is always the last model to come on board

Goo Fu S - SUCKS - when are we going to realize this with these complex  phased type storms - I am sorry but even last winter I had these sentiments and the Euro kicked its but when are we getting the update on this going? 2015? Is the para replacing this - i forget but I read it is being delayed - what else is new.

I saw someone post this on FB describing the GFS.  Pretty funny:

Gfs is like a crack head living in the projects trying to stay clean. Living in a halfway house by day, tempted for the rock by night. Trying to do right, gets wrapped back up into it's b.s, and sh-ts the bed. You never know what's going through its mind.....
Lol, it just cant compute these types of situations, was showing Sandy OTS for a while until it finally realized it was wrong but it did that whole storm wrong as it was happening...
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:44 pm

That literally made me lol ahaha So based on what I'm seeing in the EURO OP, it looks like the upper-levels (H7/H5) are modeled to close off too early for most of us to see any really decent snow, except maybe those of us in the extreme NW. This is because the deformation axis is kept further north over northern and central NY state with the low(s) positioned almost overhead. That said, I cannot recall a time where we have seen a binary low system develop anywhere; there is always one that takes over very rapidly. As such, because the "second", or closed low that is west of the "first" is associated with the main and deepening polar energy, I would tend to think that is the one that we need to watch. I think the EURO is having issues with this right now, which is why the precip shield is so broad in coverage. I agree that there will be a nice comma-head, but not one that is so disorganized. IF that polar energy waits to close off another 12-18 hours, then we would all be in the money for a heck of a storm. To be honest, we may still see that happen, especially if the initial energy ends up being weaker than modeled, because that is what is allowing the ridge to cyclonically break over the deepening trough, and thus the closing off of the western energy. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but either way, this is going to change with each run until late this weekend. Just my two cents.

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