NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Page 6 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:33 pm

Cold trend continuing, 12z Nam and GFS were colder too

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by aiannone Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:37 pm

What's everyone's current temp?
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:38 pm

37 here
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4442
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 43
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:39 pm

22 degrees, light flurries, and northeast wind between 5-10 m/h here in the Poconos

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:43 pm

nws has expanded wwa for all of nnj rockland and northern west. for up to a tenth of an inch of sleet/fz rain. I knew with surface temps well below forecast wintry precip had to happen
December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Okx
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:44 pm

31* dp 25*
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by aiannone Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:45 pm

Nice! Currently 13.4* here under cloudy skies and calm wind.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4253
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:45 pm

Hey Al, thats ever so close to us, nowcast time.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:47 pm

Wow nothing on radar when I started watching movie around 8, now its coming full scale up coast.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:49 pm

ice map has changed from nws

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 StormTotalIceFcst

some snow this morning over li and coastal nj and now ice over a good part of the area what else does this storm have up its sleeve? driving could be treacherous in the morning.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:50 pm

It is 34 here now.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:51 pm

0.22 ice. thats getting up to dangerous levels if its freezing rain.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey Al, thats ever so close to us, nowcast time.
yes but I think we are to close to the sound. temps probably inch above freezing when precip starts. how ever ground is cold as we were below freezing the whole day with a low last night of 19*. have to watch out for icy spots in the early morning hours
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:55 pm

Yes, I know I said ever so close, but I think its a fine line and it ends in northern wc. waiting to see how these winds shape up, skins says its started down there, still thinking might be higher than advisory level but i could be wrong, so far there have been def changes and unexpected things and its not even here yet.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:56 pm

I don't think I have ever seen so many color codes for the upton map before lol, its rediculous!

http://www.weather.gov/okx/
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:01 pm

Ok the NAm and GFS 00z all bring about a inch of rain to NYC and west, east more, thats a big change from before, I don't think the models mean a whole lot at this point though do they?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:02 pm

Al, beat me to that WWA for me and mugs..... temp is 33°

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4365
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:03 pm

this from steve d
Watch for all locations to go over to snow on Wednesday morning
Don't be surprised if those advisories hit the coast by Wednesday morning.

he is impressed with polar jet already stronger than forecast
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:05 pm

I think the only models that are going to mean anything at all are the short range models, Jman. It's just my opinion, but this close to the event the medium range guidance doesn't always prove to be superior. I'm now focused on the SREFs, NAM, UKMET and RGEM. If I forgot any others, I apologize to them lmao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:08 pm

rb the NAM showed a big dry area around the city, that would bust the rain big time, i don't buy it.

Upton NWS notation interesting:

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CITY AND ADJACENT AREAS NOT WITHIN THE
ADVISORY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS
FOR NOW.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ok the NAm and GFS 00z all bring about a inch of rain to NYC and west, east more, thats a big change from before, I don't think the models mean a whole lot at this point though do they?

rgem also not as much rain as before. I think we will have about a 6 hour period of heavy rain and wind. then precip will become more showery in nature.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5225
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 59
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:rb the NAM showed a big dry area around the city, that would bust the rain big time, i don't buy it.

Upton NWS notation interesting:

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CITY AND ADJACENT AREAS NOT WITHIN THE
ADVISORY COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS
FOR NOW.

Take note of the dry air to the southwest of the system, which is associated with the strong subsidence behind the synoptic forcing. As the system continues to occlude that sinking/drying air is advected into the system by the cyclonic flow around the east side of that. In very wrapped up systems like this one will likely be, that is actually very believable to me, and actually I would say likely.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:23 pm

So u think the flooding they were calling for is not a threat anymore? Cause the NAM only shows a bit over a inch for me, thats not really a flood threat.

Wow on NAM 925 winds at same time has heaviest precip.

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Nam_9210
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:26 pm

Oh no; I still think the flood threat is high. Over an inch of rain in six hours added to astronomically high tides AND a very strong and already persistent onshore fetch; that's a recipe for some minor to moderate flooding in localized spots for sure.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 5355
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 29
Location : Parents: Greentown, Pa/Me: L.B.I., NJ

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:28 pm

Thats true I wasn't thinking about the short duration of the worst part.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 17941
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 6 Empty Re: December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 7 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum