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December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:08 am

Oh heaven on earth, this stil ldoes not agree totally with the other models on placement of precip like rb said. This is one of the biggest nowcast I forsee.
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Post by amugs Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:45 am

Frank,

Very complex and difficult forecast but you did once again a great job - love reading your simple easy to follow and read forecasts. Hope that snow line moves a tick or two east!

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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:45 am

Very tricky forecast up here. We are trying to figure out how much mixing will occur here in NVT. Hard to believe we need to worry about mixing being that it was -8* last night lol! If anyone would like to share their thoughts please do!
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:46 am

I really really dislike wind it makes me nervous. so i've been bracing all morning for the worst
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:49 am

RJB, it will be pretty strong, for a good 12 hr period, the 55-60mph gusts will be most likely midday through late afternoon but won't die down until later tomorrow night. I wouldn't panic, at worse there will be scattered power outages, and umbrullas will be useless LOL. You will be ok. Lets just hope it doesn't come in even stronger than modeled, I do however think the watch will be a warning sometime later today or tonight. Frank may also have to boost his winds up a bit as they are calling for more than just isolated gusts of 50-60mph.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:50 am

and RJB this is tomorrow not today.
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:56 am

I'd be surprised if it doesn't go into a warning sounds like just a complete crap storm lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:58 am

Yep going to be a wild ride for the day tomorrow, if this were snow it would be a unbelievable blizzard, but we have to roll with the punches.  But we have been getting a lot of coastals and if we got this in January we would be golden.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Yep going to be a wild ride for the day tomorrow, if this were snow it would be a unbelievable blizzard, but we have to roll with the punches.  But we have been getting a lot of coastals and if we got this in January we would be golden.
jman the coast is in trouble with this storm.today at wirk the ocean is ripping waves are huge. Also mimor flooding due to high tide already
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:42 am

This storm is pretty much set in stone in my opinion. Heavy rain and high winds along the coast, same thing for areas just north and west with a little less rain and not as high winds, and rain changing to snow in NEPA through central NY up into northern new England as the CCB develops. 

The only thing left to figure out is Wednesdays forecast. Once the storm occludes around long island, will there be forcing in the atmosphere that could prompt snow squalls to develop in eastern PA into parts of western NJ? Regardless the coast would still be too warm, though a snow shower can't be ruled out. 

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:54 am

skins, I am only maybe 15 miles from the coast and less from LI sound coast, so I am basically coast, except sheltered, you are a bit inland too from the zip you showed me but about the same distance basically coastal areas. I think there will be quite a few power outages along coastal areas and inland boroughs. Good call last night Frank everything still seems to be in line. We called that high wind watch last night haha, NWS was a little late to the party, when do warning s usually go up 12 hrs before? I forget the timing criteria.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:55 am

Skins I'd love to see the ocean now, too bad I am not close enough to go there.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:59 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Skins I'd love to see the ocean now, too bad I am not close enough to go there.
jman i live in point pleasant boro 2 miles if that from beach.i work in point beacj,lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:59 am

Yea I believe so. Anyone else having issues with forum running slow today? It's slow on tablet but fast on mobile

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:04 am

If the 700mb low tracks inland over NJ then this will end up being about 12 hours of intense rain and wind, followed by dry slot for the coastal sections of NJ and NYC with big snows for the Poconos and Upstate NY on Tuesday night into much of Wednesday.

If that 700mb low were to track about 30-40 miles further southeast, it would keep the 700mb dry layer more out towards Suffolk County and SNE while most of NJ, the LHV, and NYC received several inches of snow after the initial rain.

It's a really tough call right now IMO from the latest guidance but lets see what EURO and UKIE show

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:10 am

Oh my bad skins, so a bit closer than me lol, cool I would love to be there and go down there tomorrow, yeah I have a bit of jim cantore in me : )
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:14 am

You guys don't have a high wind watch though, I think we do because the way the winds will be coming into the sound and southern LI.  So while your coast may get battered I think the wind is a much bigger issue up here and into LI will get the highest, not to say though that you will be free of wind as franks map shows. But they are calling for 25-35 sustained and gusts to 55-60 here. I do not remember a high wind watch being issued in recent years, if it goes warning (which as I said I think it will) even more so I don't recall in a long time. We had damage from that wind storm on Nov 1st/2nd and the winds didn't top that hiogh so with the saturation and even higher winds its to say the least a bit concerning, its still cold enough that it would be miserable to lose power.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:21 am

Frank who were you responding to about slow site? I didn't see a post saying that. No problems here, however once you post something it doesn't automatically go back to the thread like it usually does.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:27 am

12z GFS and Nam look colder for Wednesday around noon for the end of this thing, looks like we may get snow a little more south

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Post by sroc4 Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Yea I believe so. Anyone else having issues with forum running slow today? It's slow on tablet but fast on mobile

Yes all morning Frank. last 30mins or so seems to be better though

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Post by SurfNJ Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:18 pm

Thanks for the maps (especially the wind map) Frank!  Heavy rains + high wind = rain gear for me tomorrow.  the typical trench coat and umbrella won't be cutting it for my commute between Monmouth county and lower Manhattan.

Fingers crossed we stop getting all the rain, and start getting snow!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:21 pm

Update:

Morning model runs are consistent to what I said last night. Expect an awful day tomorrow with heavy rain and high winds. Due to saturated grounds, flash flooding is possible in flood prone areas as well as possible power outages from uprooted trees. Snow is not the story with this storm. It's the wind.

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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:26 pm

Ukie is east of the GGEM and GFS. Has the low crossing eastern LI and then looping around into NYC with a nice CCB near NYC.
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Post by Taffy Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:35 pm

[quote="Frank_Wx"]Update:

Morning model runs are consistent to what I said last night. Expect an awful day tomorrow with heavy rain and high winds. Due to saturated grounds, flash flooding is possible in flood prone areas as well as possible power outages from uprooted trees. Snow is not the story with this storm. It's the wind.[/quote]


Frank, are you in the flood zone where you live? I'm not far from you and have 2 sump pumps and a french drain. I hope we weather the rain okay.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:49 pm

Its so hard to believe it will be all rain, its so damn cold here in the Bronx only 27, Frank give me some credit lol, I called the winds and the issue with uprooted trees before you lol
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