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December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:05 pm

Yet again, Jman, could you post the EURO snow map when precip FINALLY ends lmao sh!t's cray lmfao

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:15 pm

@Taffy wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Update:

Morning model runs are consistent to what I said last night. Expect an awful day tomorrow with heavy rain and high winds. Due to saturated grounds, flash flooding is possible in flood prone areas as well as possible power outages from uprooted trees. Snow is not the story with this storm. It's the wind.


Frank, are you in the flood zone where you live? I'm not far from you and have 2 sump pumps and a french drain. I hope we weather the rain okay.

Cranford is prone to flooding but I'm in a safe area. Hopefully it works out for you, I'm sure you'll be fine. 

@jmanley32 wrote:Its so hard to believe it will be all rain, its so damn cold here in the Bronx only 27, Frank give me some credit lol, I called the winds and the issue with uprooted trees before you lol

I'm not sure posting a bunch of model images that show high winds is the same thing as forecasting. Winds have high bust potential because if the precip is not heavy enough you won't see those higher gusts come to fruition at the surface. That's why you can't forecast them far in advance like you can for precipitation

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:17 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Yet again, Jman, could you post the EURO snow map when precip FINALLY ends lmao sh!t's cray lmfao

850's crash after midnight Tuesday. CCB sets up and you probably get decent accumulation 

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:18 pm

Warm for the city, cold enough just west though surface is warm

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Post by Snow88 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:22 pm

Should be interesting to see where it sets up
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:23 pm

I think the column is going to stay right around freezing west of the Delaware river because of the very heavy precip, as well as a strong ageostrophic component to the low level flow working to dam the cold air. The only period of rain may be from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. I think everything else is snow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:25 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I think the column is going to stay right around freezing west of the Delaware river because of the very heavy precip, as well as a strong ageostrophic component to the low level flow working to dam the cold air. The only period of rain may be from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. I think everything else is snow.

Mid afternoon sounds a little too optimistic for me, but anything is possible with a coastal storm. I would agree if it showed signs of deepening at our latitude.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:26 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Should be interesting to see where it sets up
Somewhere between NEPA and just west of the city. City may get into it for a brief period

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:37 pm

So you see the rain snow line more of a west east dividing line as opposed to the normal north south? If that's the case that would be similar to February 26 2010 at least in that aspect.

This will be an interesting 48 hours to see how it all evolves.

It doesn't look like the temperatures are going to make it to their predicted highs today. Just something else to ponder as the low level cold doesn't budge. Ice skating in the HV may be an issue.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:39 pm

In my opinion, CP, yes.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:40 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:So you see the rain snow line more of a west east dividing line as opposed to the normal north south? If that's the case that would be similar to February 26 2010 at least in that aspect.

This will be an interesting 48 hours to see how it all evolves.

It doesn't look like the temperatures are going to make it to their predicted highs today. Just something else to ponder as the low level cold doesn't budge. Ice skating in the HV may be an issue.

First off...happy birthday my friend 

Second, yes...I feel it would be more West to east. You may start as snow before changing to rain

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:43 pm

Oh snap!! Happy birthday buddy!

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Post by Guest Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:44 pm

@rb924119 wrote:In my opinion, CP, yes.

I second that notion. Almost 2:00 here in Nassau county LI and breeze off the ocean and only 31 degrees. That's 5 degrees less than forecast at what should be our warmest part of the day. DOES THIS MEAN ANYTHING REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK/SETUP??

Just hoping against hope here

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:54 pm

Thanks Frank and RB

It's been Fascinating watching you guys analyze this upcoming event, monstrosity, coming up. Nothing's easy so far this season.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:56 pm

Slap from Frank damn lol, yes I was jk, I did say LOL, I know you are the man and yes forecast is what you do best. But I did say this was a concern from the beginning so my "guess" was right,is that better : ) And I know that its difficult, depends on the mixing down etc, but with very heavy rain or bursts of precip I think those higher gusts to 60mph are def not out of the question, but will it be everywhere no of course not. To me I am nearing a nowcast frame of mind, rb I will post but not sure what good it will do.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 1:56 pm

Unfortunately, probably not Snow. Even though the surface is cold, the lower levels of the atmosphere will slowly but steadily warm as the easterlies persist. Then, once the low starts getting more developed and closer, they will warm rapidly.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:09 pm

Look at that spin its coming!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:26 pm

That's just awesome, no two ways about it. How often do you get to see a definable mid-latitude cyclone booking it westward and NOT be linked to something tropical???

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:28 pm

I know right rb, it looked so cool to me I had to post it. Gonna watch it every so often to see it evolve. Looks like its getting its act together, may come in stronger, but who knows at this pt. Although things seem pretty in tune with Franks forecast.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Dec 08, 2014 2:43 pm

Its a shame theres no strong arctic high in place to block it just a nudge more offshore and more cold air injected this could have been a 2' storm for many. The reality is its 90% rain with a chance of some snow showers or squalls on the backend for 95, immediate coast probably nothing.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:03 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Its a shame theres no strong arctic high in place to block it just a nudge more offshore and more cold air injected this could have been a 2' storm for many. The reality is its 90% rain with a chance of some snow showers or squalls on the backend for 95, immediate coast probably nothing.

Without a doubt Tom.

I probably won't get above 33-34 this whole event but because of the mid level warming I probably see two inches or less of snow through this whole event. Only if this backend thing works out will I see anymore IMO.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:04 pm

It's so cold it feels like there could be snow! brrrrr still in the 20's here

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Post by oldtimer Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:08 pm

This thing moving NW Will it make a loop??

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Post by Guest Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:16 pm

Hey
The storm looks like it wants to slam directly into North Carolina. WHAT GIVES? Currently 32 and north/northeast winds and snow flurries here in Nassau County LI.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:17 pm

FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.

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