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December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm

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Post by Guest Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:20 pm

For the time being, it seems I'm the lucky one. NWSBing tells me I can expect 8-12 by the time all is said and done.

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Post by Guest Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:22 pm

@rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.

Just when I started getting a twinge of hope I checked the NWS and they just updated. Now 0% chance of snow anywhere near coast even on Wed night Thursday just rain and all there snow totals probabilities have been moved west by at least 50 miles. Now jackpot seems to be Binghamton Syracuse Utica area. Even Hunter Mountain area at 3000 feet looks iffy. THIS SUCKS!!

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Post by oldtimer Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:25 pm

Hey Ares Wow Enjoy the 8-12 Where is Painted Post ??

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Post by Quietace Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:27 pm

With the sun going down in now down to 32.2 from a high of 34. Still snowing hard and starting to accumalate once again.

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Post by Guest Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:30 pm

Painted Post is way west of all of you. I'm about 70 miles west of Binghamton.

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Post by oldtimer Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:30 pm

Ryan I got light snow here 32* This is our tease lol

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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:39 pm

I just went to a Warning for 8-12" with more in the higher elevations. This storm is a now-cast, no doubt about it. These amounts and details are going to change even through tomorrow as it evolves. Just gotta wait and see

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:46 pm

Nowcast for sure, for the coast I am ready for the wind and rain, not go be fun but what ya gonna do, as we get closer to January and into jan if we have storms like this we will get crushed, just gotta stay optimistic. Also looks like end of CMC has a storm that looks colder, but its 240hr cmc of course.
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z NAM came in further east at H7 with the closed low compared to 12z, and now has it centered just off the NJ coast. 850 0c line reflects this too. SREFs are still a torch for everybody through sunset on Wednesday before 850s start crashing. I don't think I've ever seen the SREFs be so much different from the NAM this close to an event before. Gonna be interesting to see which model suite verifies closer.

Just when I started getting a twinge of hope I checked the NWS and they just updated.  Now 0% chance of snow anywhere near coast even on Wed night Thursday just rain and all there snow totals probabilities have been moved west by at least 50 miles.  Now jackpot seems to be Binghamton Syracuse Utica area.  Even Hunter Mountain area at 3000 feet looks iffy.  THIS SUCKS!!

can't believe no snow even for nw/nj and epa. upton and mt. molly have 0 snow acc. in there forecast for these areas. is there a mistake?
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:53 pm

There has to be, I literally just checked lmao omg, this is what we can expect until this storm ends ahahha

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:55 pm

Ok so to my surprise they downgraded the high wind watch to a advisory, I think that's wrong but we will see, NWS has been known to change things all over the place with systems like this.
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Ok so to my surprise they downgraded the high wind watch to a advisory, I think that's wrong but we will see, NWS has been known to change things all over the place with systems like this.

jman here is upton wind advisory...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND NASSAU.

* HAZARDS...HIGH WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE LARGE BRIDGES
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

I guess with wind and snow map there are thinking storm will be weaker Sad . actually I don't know what there thinking.lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:00 pm

IMO this wil lchange, I think they jumped the gun on a advisory and noit a warning too soon, but they also just put up a coastal flood warning now. No idea what they are thinking either. Wait and see, but nothing much to get excited about for us in snow weenie land, gonna be wet and nasty.
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:There has to be, I literally just checked lmao omg, this is what we can expect until this storm ends ahahha

I had to post. what are they thinking? can't wait for there disco!

December 9th-10th Forecast Map(s) Cut-Off Coastal Storm - Page 4 NoSnow
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Post by aiannone Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:03 pm

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY DENSE SNOW...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIGHTEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING WITH RAIN AND SLEET AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE HEAVY
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY ALSO
LEAD TO POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:04 pm

Their maps and disco will probably change from now through tomorrow several times, I remember a snowstorm last yr that as it was snowing the totals and areas of totals kept changing
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Post by algae888 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:07 pm

rb models def are trending colder. temps today are 5-10 below forecast. when uULL closes off its going to have some very cold air to work with. west and even south of it can pick up some heavy snow showers and some acc. models do not do a good job with this. some are going to be pleasantly surprised.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:07 pm

There is such a fine line between wind advisory and warning its like what 10mph on gusts? I think its silly but that's the threshold, not really much of a difference, but downed from 55-60 to 40mph is a big difference.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:08 pm

I hope you are right Al : )
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Post by RJB8525 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:20 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:There is such a fine line between wind advisory and warning its like what 10mph on gusts?  I think its silly but that's the threshold, not really much of a difference, but downed from 55-60 to 40mph is a big difference.

i was looking at the new advisory they put out..this is what they define

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

this is what the actual advisory says for NYC

WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE LARGE BRIDGES
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:22 pm

the sustained part is below criteria, and the gust part is 7mph away from a warning at 58mph lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:29 pm

I think they may have seen something that takes this slightly weaker, but all it will take is a tiny increase to have them change their minds again. Maybe they felt they had to issue a official advisory being its so close and they will fine tune it as it happens, ie. nowcast.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I think they may have seen something that takes this slightly weaker, but all it will take is a tiny increase to have them change their minds again.  Maybe they felt they had to issue a official advisory being its so close and they will fine tune it as it happens, ie. nowcast.

UPTON is usually very conservative when issuing high wind warnings. We've had countless wind advisories since I moved here and I can't remember the last time we had a HWW.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:35 pm

Was just outside and we have some very light snow flurries right now.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:35 pm

I know soul, and honestly, the storm on 11/1-11/2 had warning level wind gusts and there was not even a advisory until they started to die down lol.
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