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12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:24 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:So whats next that the rain has stopped here we got close to 3 inches. Now is this the lull I guess and will I see snow tomorrow

Where you are probably not.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:25 pm

algae888 wrote:
Dtone wrote:That persistent band over NYC and immediate suburbs isn't letting up

dtone its amazing! it doesn't want to let up. why cant this happen to us with snowstorms.lol

It will!!! This season Al! 2.2" so far here in Wading River. Flooding going on right now in Many areas out here.

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Post by mako460 Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:27 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:https://fbcdn-vthumb-a.akamaihd.net/hvthumb-ak-xpf1/v/t15.0-10/1976219_770637399638465_770637336305138_8115_767_b.jpg?oh=766be242c8d9bb8ed787967ae33dce97&oe=55107555&__gda__=1427449292_fca219f3f7af75106008509ef83c7cd7 a video of Point Pleasant Beach hopes it works.

Scary, reminds me of the start of Sandy, never want to relive that again.

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Post by Dtone Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:36 pm

algae888 wrote:
Dtone wrote:That persistent band over NYC and immediate suburbs isn't letting up

dtone its amazing! it doesn't want to let up. why cant this happen to us with snowstorms.lol

I try not to play that what if this was snow game but man this would be a quite a storm lol.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:39 pm

The radar from weatherbell.com as of 1:25 PM. While much of NJ has dried out, I (where the pink pushpin is) am still getting heavy rain:

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 5 Wxbell12

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Post by Quietace Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:58 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:https://fbcdn-vthumb-a.akamaihd.net/hvthumb-ak-xpf1/v/t15.0-10/1976219_770637399638465_770637336305138_8115_767_b.jpg?oh=766be242c8d9bb8ed787967ae33dce97&oe=55107555&__gda__=1427449292_fca219f3f7af75106008509ef83c7cd7 a video of Point Pleasant Beach hopes it works.
Where in town is that
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:44 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:https://fbcdn-vthumb-a.akamaihd.net/hvthumb-ak-xpf1/v/t15.0-10/1976219_770637399638465_770637336305138_8115_767_b.jpg?oh=766be242c8d9bb8ed787967ae33dce97&oe=55107555&__gda__=1427449292_fca219f3f7af75106008509ef83c7cd7 a video of Point Pleasant Beach hopes it works.
Where in town is that
Point pleasant beach Arnold Ave was flodded for three blocks
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Post by Dtone Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:47 pm

The Hutch is flooded around Co-op City and Orchard Beach/City Island. Then closed altogether after the Westchester county line. Portions of the Bx River pkwy is closed too

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:47 pm

Oh my, NNJ getting it good here now... now if it was just a wee bit colder....

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:00 pm

Rain subsided here, saw mill river next block over was very close to flooding, they had city guys there ready.  I recorded a temp of aboout 46 degrees and winds 10-12mph a gust to 20mph, seems they might be increasing a bit but inside now.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:01 pm

On my phone...storm seems to be done? Impressive wind reports on Long Island. Now let's see what part 2 brings tonight into tomorrow

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:02 pm

Wow i actually saw the sun through the clouds for a brief moment. I took the bronx river parkway home must been north of the bronx yonkers border.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:04 pm

Appears rain is ending from south to north Frank, what were some of the wind readings in LI? Seems to be getting more gusty here, funny its after the rain passed. But nothing major, the flooding is bad, our park is under water. Wind advisory still in effect till 7pm.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:On my phone...storm seems to be done? Impressive wind reports on Long Island. Now let's see what part 2 brings tonight into tomorrow

Still getting slammed here....ugh

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:30 pm

As of 2:51 PM Central Park has measured 2.5" of rain from this storm meaning not only will December finish wetter than average (4.50" as of now compared to the normal 4" for December), but 2014 will also finish wetter than average (52.25" as of now compared to the normal 49.94"). This means that nine of the past 12 years have had above average precipitation. Also, at the moment it is the 28th wettest year on record going back to 1869.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:32 pm

And plenty of time for more in December so may smash those records possibly. Now I am having a sun shower lol, whats next!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:39 pm

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My street. Flooded.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:And plenty of time for more in December so may smash those records possibly.  Now I am having a sun shower lol, whats next!

Well I doubt it will reach 1983's 80.56" but the wettest December on record was 1973 with 9.98" so maybe it will make a run for that.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:59 pm

Part two is the interesting wild card, does it indeed turn to snow and if so how much (likely not much) or does it pull through as a cold rain or rain/snow mix, keep watching the radar and temps.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:00 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:On my phone...storm seems to be done? Impressive wind reports on Long Island. Now let's see what part 2 brings tonight into tomorrow
so frank as for part 2 were is that storm and when will see it if it develops
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:08 pm

12z NAM shows. 25-.5" addtl precip in the area breaking up about 60 hours from now, lol right....  Shocked Shocked
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:10 pm

18z nam shows even a bit more. But not down to the coast, maybe a tiny bit of snow inland shows fel inches by 84 hrs, lol thats what 3-4 days away lol
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Post by Dtone Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:34 pm

.THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR SMALL
STREAMS IN BRONX...WESTCHESTER AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRONX...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES.

THE SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IS OVERFLOWING ITS
BANKS IN ELMSFORD AND IS RESULTING IN ROAD CLOSURES.

THE MAHWAH RIVER AT SUFFERN IS AT ACTION STAGE WITH A RIVER LEVEL OF
3.7 FT AND IS EXPECTED TO JUST REACH ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 4.0 FT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD CREST JUST OVER FLOOD STAGE THIS
EVENING WITH WATER LEVELS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

THE BRONX RIVER AT THE NY BOTANICAL GARDENS REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE CURRENT LEVEL IS 3.2 FT AND RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 3.0 FT. THE
RIVER SHOULD ALSO CREST BETWEEN 3.4 AND 3.6 FT THIS EVENING WITH
LEVELS SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:36 pm

nws disco for tonight..

IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIP...LATEST HRRR/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT FOR COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW. BUT EVEN THEN BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A BIT
WARM. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS...DUE TO
DYNAMIC COOLING POTENTIAL UNDER UPPER LOW AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION
BANDING. THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY IS LESS THAN AN INCH OF WET SNOW
ACCUM OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW END POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUT
WILL BE WATCHED.

tom and tom night...


COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE STACKING LOW WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BANDS
OF PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS ECMWF/GFS THERMO PROFILES...WHICH
SUPPORT CONTINUED COLUMN COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW AND
UNDER UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY WED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP FROM RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...CONTINUING INTO OVERNIGHT. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR LATE SECOND PERIOD/THIRD
PERIOD EVENT.

TRANSITION CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE SLOWER...BUT EVEN THE
COAST COULD SE A DUSTING OF SNOW WED NIGHT.
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Post by leimatt95 Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:47 pm

Bust potential here in Binghamton. Snow projections are now a little more than half of what they were yesterday. Nothing but rain all day.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:48 pm

bah, sounds like nada for us al.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:16 pm

Winds have REALLY underperformed for this storm here in the city, per usual lately. It was windier Sat late night/early Sun am post the rain.
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