12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
this is the part of the storm i'm waiting for...
nws forecast for me and jman
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
nws forecast for me and jman
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Heavy band of rain offshore looks like its trying to rotate NW. At school so can't see the HRRRalgae888 wrote:Quietace wrote:I was wrong before this stations reporting 2.64 over the last 6skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah Ace I heard over 2 inches already here not good high tide coming
ace and skins most of the heavy rain is over for you guys. that band off the coast probably headed for LI.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
I lied; it's sleet here, not freezing rain. It may not be snow, but it's certainly better than ice hahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
rb924119 wrote:I lied; it's sleet here, not freezing rain. It may not be snow, but it's certainly better than ice hahaha
Rb not much difference - it ICE ICE BABY!!!
This is one to remember that is for sure.
Al- the NAM may have nailed this with the RGEM last night showing snow all teh way to the coast - not saying accum for them but snow all teh way down with back end.
In classes all day so not much time to post - good luck folks and be careful in the N&W areas - thinkng NWS underestimated the icing condition well the LLC (Low Level Cold)air being so dense and stubborn to leave.
Hey and the next time frame 17-20 to keep an eye on. I know let's get through thisone but I am always keeping an eye on the LR to be PREAPRED - like a good boy............scout that is - HAAH!!
this STJ is really going to kick in and if we can get a 50/50 Low we can produce a SECS and even MECS - the HECS is the -NAO and that will come.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Quietace wrote:Heavy band of rain offshore looks like its trying to rotate NW. At school so can't see the HRRRalgae888 wrote:Quietace wrote:I was wrong before this stations reporting 2.64 over the last 6skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah Ace I heard over 2 inches already here not good high tide coming
ace and skins most of the heavy rain is over for you guys. that band off the coast probably headed for LI.
Wish I had you in class Ace cause all we would be doing is track and talking weather !!! Tell Francis (Stripes Movie) to lighten up!
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
STILL only 31 degrees here. Ice is piling up on tree branches...
HeresL- Posts : 122
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Here in Riverdale (NJ) rain is increasing - temp is 35 degrees but winds are less than 10 mph. What a difference from you, HeresL no icing here at all ...... yet!
nancy-j-s- Posts : 36
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
_________________
Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
29.5 and still raining.
Trees and lawn are taking a hit. The treated roads are ok with slushy ice in spots.
Trees and lawn are taking a hit. The treated roads are ok with slushy ice in spots.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Mod to heavy rain all morning. Temp 41* Already some impressive wind gusts and the current LP is only at about 1006 as of 9am down from 1010 only about 1-2hrs ago. Pressure grad is really tightening along the Immediate coast. Im not sure if anyone has been looking at some of the hires SR models this morning but they are showing some impressive 850mb temp crashes overnight to well below freezing down to the coast all the while some heavy snow squalls come rotating through. I would not be surprised to see isolated areas along coastal NJ/CT, NYC and LI pick up a trace to an inch or two when all is said and done.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Its pouring, roads are rivers on each side, my front walk was flooded, had walk around other side and parts bronx river parkway on ramp to cross bx about be closed bout half foot rain or more. No wind odd.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:32 am; edited 1 time in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Another band rotated and it hasn't let up.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
southern 1/3 of nj through with this first band of heavy rain. making slow but steady progress north. btw lp is east of most models so far. that's why c/e pa has very little precip compared to rest of region.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
This is after midnight in the wee hrs of Thursday am. 850's below freezing and continue to crash to about -7 to -9*C by mid day Thursday all the while these squalls rotate in and out of the coastal areas. If an individual squall is heavy enough it WILL cool the column and some fast and furious, albeit small, snow accumulations could happen esp on grassy surfaces in isolated spots along the coast including LI. Surface temps are marginal at best in the mid to upper 30's but watch out
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By HR 60 squalls still rotating through all the while the mid level temps are plummeting.
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By HR 60 squalls still rotating through all the while the mid level temps are plummeting.
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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
RAP analysis has the low to far west then current obs if anyone noticed... Maybe like 15 miles. Im just being a bit picky i guess.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
I agree scott. here is nws disco on this...
THE STRONG COASTAL LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND LI THIS
EVENING INTO WED...WITH THE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED AND STACKED ON
WED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU.
THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A TRANSITION OVER TO A SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY....SPECIFICALLY
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK WARM ENOUGH
ON WED FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR A MIX NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
SNOW WED NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER WITH ITS THERMO
PROFILES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS APPEARS TO MORE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
ISSUE THAN ANYTHING. THERE IS ALWAYS A CAVEAT AND THAT IS BEING
UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND VERTICAL COOLING. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES.
THE STRONG COASTAL LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND LI THIS
EVENING INTO WED...WITH THE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED AND STACKED ON
WED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU.
THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A TRANSITION OVER TO A SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY....SPECIFICALLY
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK WARM ENOUGH
ON WED FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR A MIX NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
SNOW WED NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER WITH ITS THERMO
PROFILES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS APPEARS TO MORE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
ISSUE THAN ANYTHING. THERE IS ALWAYS A CAVEAT AND THAT IS BEING
UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND VERTICAL COOLING. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
So where is this wind that is the headline? Even highway signs said rain and high winds take caution, its nearly calm other than the crazy rain. We must have at least a inch or more, AL you see the bright orange/red is right over southern WC and city and really not moving much. I think 4 inches for many areas not out of the question.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:So where is this wind that is the headline? Even highway signs said rain and high winds take caution, its nearly calm other than the crazy rain. We must have at least a inch or more, AL you see the bright orange/red is right over southern WC and city and really not moving much. I think 4 inches for many areas not out of the question.
winds are right where they are supposed to be 15-25mph with gusts into the 30's. jfk had 30mph g38. you were calling for 60mph wind gust but not mets. as far as rain I think we should end up between 2-3 inches. we have about 3 hours left of the heavy stuff. god cant wait till this morning is over.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
The wind has really kicked up here in the last half hour. Trust me, u dont want the wind, the rain is coming down sideways now, it's ugly enough out there, we dont need to add insult to injury Jman. I know you like wind, but us near the coast=not good.
mako460- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
12z Hi res NAM backed off for E LI but W LI, NYC, Westchester and Lower HV look good for we'd into Thursday verbatim. Still in the MD and LR for this model. Have to see what these SR models show by tonight and tomorrow morning.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
21* and cloudy here now, awaiting the snow.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
jmanley32 wrote:Its pouring, roads are rivers on each side, my front walk was flooded, had walk around other side and parts bronx river parkway on ramp to cross bx about be closed bout half foot rain or more. No wind odd.
You can clearly see the Bronx River itself from the Bx River Pkwy now on the northbound side. It was getting close to the shoulder after Gun Hill through 233rd. The winding Westchester county portion must be close to closing by now.
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
No I was just curious because frank posted on the first one on this thread that winds were possibly gusting to 60mph so I was preparing for that. And mets were calling for 50mph last night and this morning. At this point do not really care but am surprised its def not a wind advisory at this time, am in south Bronx and not even a breeze.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
really Dtone I didn't notice the actual river was that high shoot I have to head that way soon.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
jman pretty good winds except for the Bronx....
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK RAIN 41 38 89 NE10G20 29.98F FOG
LAGUARDIA APRT RAIN 43 40 89 NE18G28 29.95F FOG
KENNEDY INTL HVY RAIN 43 39 86 NE30G40 29.92F FOG
NEWARK/LIBERTY RAIN 39 37 92 N23G31 29.95F WCI 28
BRNX BOT. GARD N/A 41 39 93 N6 29.97F
TETERBORO RAIN 39 36 89 N12G25 29.96F FOG WCI 32
$$
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK RAIN 41 38 89 NE10G20 29.98F FOG
LAGUARDIA APRT RAIN 43 40 89 NE18G28 29.95F FOG
KENNEDY INTL HVY RAIN 43 39 86 NE30G40 29.92F FOG
NEWARK/LIBERTY RAIN 39 37 92 N23G31 29.95F WCI 28
BRNX BOT. GARD N/A 41 39 93 N6 29.97F
TETERBORO RAIN 39 36 89 N12G25 29.96F FOG WCI 32
$$
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: 12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations
aiannone wrote:Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif
BINGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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