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12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:26 am

I lied; it's sleet here, not freezing rain. It may not be snow, but it's certainly better than ice hahaha

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:33 am

@rb924119 wrote:I lied; it's sleet here, not freezing rain. It may not be snow, but it's certainly better than ice hahaha

Rb not much difference - it ICE ICE BABY!!!

This is one to remember that is for sure.

Al- the NAM may have nailed this with the RGEM last night showing snow all teh way to the coast - not saying accum for them but snow all teh way down with back end.

In classes all day so not much time to post - good luck folks and be careful in the N&W areas - thinkng NWS underestimated the icing condition well the LLC (Low Level Cold)air being so dense and stubborn to leave.

Hey and the next time frame 17-20 to keep an eye on. I know let's get through thisone but I am always keeping an eye on the LR to be PREAPRED - like a good boy............scout that is - HAAH!!

this STJ is really going to kick in and if we can get a 50/50 Low we can produce a SECS and even MECS - the HECS is the -NAO and that will come.

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:34 am

@Quietace wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@Quietace wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Yeah Ace I heard over 2 inches already here not good high tide coming
I was wrong before this stations reporting 2.64 over the last 6


ace and skins most of the heavy rain is over for you guys. that band off the coast probably headed for LI.
Heavy band of rain offshore looks like its trying to rotate NW. At school so can't see the HRRR

Wish I had you in class Ace cause all we would be doing is track and talking weather !!! Tell Francis (Stripes Movie) to lighten up!

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Post by HeresL Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:38 am

STILL only 31 degrees here. Ice is piling up on tree branches...
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Post by nancy-j-s Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:56 am

Here in Riverdale (NJ) rain is increasing - temp is 35 degrees but winds are less than 10 mph.  What a difference from you, HeresL no icing here at all ...... yet!
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:01 am

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Post-747-0-14055200-1418127971

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:02 am

29.5 and still raining.

Trees and lawn are taking a hit. The treated roads are ok with slushy ice in spots.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:13 am

Mod to heavy rain all morning. Temp 41* Already some impressive wind gusts and the current LP is only at about 1006 as of 9am down from 1010 only about 1-2hrs ago. Pressure grad is really tightening along the Immediate coast. Im not sure if anyone has been looking at some of the hires SR models this morning but they are showing some impressive 850mb temp crashes overnight to well below freezing down to the coast all the while some heavy snow squalls come rotating through. I would not be surprised to see isolated areas along coastal NJ/CT, NYC and LI pick up a trace to an inch or two when all is said and done.
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Pmsl

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:14 am

Its pouring, roads are rivers on each side, my front walk was flooded, had walk around other side and parts bronx river parkway on ramp to cross bx about be closed bout half foot rain or more. No wind odd.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Quietace Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:24 am

Another band rotated and it hasn't let up.

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:28 am

southern 1/3 of nj through with this first band of heavy rain. making slow but steady progress north. btw lp is east of most models so far. that's why c/e pa has very little precip compared to rest of region.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:28 am

This is after midnight in the wee hrs of Thursday am.  850's below freezing and continue to crash to about -7 to -9*C by mid day Thursday all the while these squalls rotate in and out of the coastal areas.  If an individual squall is heavy enough it WILL cool the column and some fast and furious, albeit small, snow accumulations could happen esp on grassy surfaces in isolated spots along the coast including LI.  Surface temps are marginal at best in the mid to upper 30's but watch out
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 <a href=12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Hires_12" />
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 <a href=12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Hires_10" />

By HR 60 squalls still rotating through all the while the mid level temps are plummeting.
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 <a href=12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Hires_13" />
12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 <a href=12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 Hires_14" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Quietace Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:29 am

RAP analysis has the low to far west then current obs if anyone noticed... Maybe like 15 miles. Im just being a bit picky i guess.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:31 am

I agree scott. here is nws disco on this...

THE STRONG COASTAL LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND LI THIS
EVENING INTO WED...WITH THE LOW BECOMING OCCLUDED AND STACKED ON
WED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU.
THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A TRANSITION OVER TO A SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY....SPECIFICALLY
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK WARM ENOUGH
ON WED FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR A MIX NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC. ELSEWHERE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
SNOW WED NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT COLDER WITH ITS THERMO
PROFILES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS APPEARS TO MORE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
ISSUE THAN ANYTHING. THERE IS ALWAYS A CAVEAT AND THAT IS BEING
UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH ENHANCED LIFT AND VERTICAL COOLING. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:35 am

So where is this wind that is the headline? Even highway signs said rain and high winds take caution, its nearly calm other than the crazy rain. We must have at least a inch or more, AL you see the bright orange/red is right over southern WC and city and really not moving much. I think 4 inches for many areas not out of the question.
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:59 am

@jmanley32 wrote:So where is this wind that is the headline?  Even highway signs said rain and high winds take caution, its nearly calm other than the crazy rain.  We must have at least a inch or more, AL you see the bright orange/red is right over southern WC and city and really not moving much.  I think 4 inches for many areas not out of the question.

winds are right where they are supposed to be 15-25mph with gusts into the 30's. jfk had 30mph g38. you were calling for 60mph wind gust but not mets. as far as rain I think we should end up between 2-3 inches. we have about 3 hours left of the heavy stuff. god cant wait till this morning is over.
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Post by mako460 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:01 am

The wind has really kicked up here in the last half hour. Trust me, u dont want the wind, the rain is coming down sideways now, it's ugly enough out there, we dont need to add insult to injury Jman. I know you like wind, but us near the coast=not good.

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:03 am

12z Hi res NAM backed off for E LI but W LI, NYC, Westchester and Lower HV look good for we'd into Thursday verbatim. Still in the MD and LR for this model. Have to see what these SR models show by tonight and tomorrow morning.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:08 am

21* and cloudy here now, awaiting the snow.
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:08 am

Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?
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Post by Dtone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:12 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Its pouring, roads are rivers on each side, my front walk was flooded, had walk around other side and parts bronx river parkway on ramp to cross bx about be closed bout half foot rain or more. No wind odd.

You can clearly see the Bronx River itself from the Bx River Pkwy now on the northbound side. It was getting close to the shoulder after Gun Hill through 233rd. The winding Westchester county portion must be close to closing by now.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:15 am

No I was just curious because frank posted on the first one on this thread that winds were possibly gusting to 60mph so I was preparing for that. And mets were calling for 50mph last night and this morning. At this point do not really care but am surprised its def not a wind advisory at this time, am in south Bronx and not even a breeze.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:16 am

really Dtone I didn't notice the actual river was that high shoot I have to head that way soon.
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:20 am

jman pretty good winds except for the Bronx....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK RAIN 41 38 89 NE10G20 29.98F FOG
LAGUARDIA APRT RAIN 43 40 89 NE18G28 29.95F FOG
KENNEDY INTL HVY RAIN 43 39 86 NE30G40 29.92F FOG
NEWARK/LIBERTY RAIN 39 37 92 N23G31 29.95F WCI 28
BRNX BOT. GARD N/A 41 39 93 N6 29.97F
TETERBORO RAIN 39 36 89 N12G25 29.96F FOG WCI 32
$$
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:21 am

@aiannone wrote:Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 2 SN_000-048_0000

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif

BINGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

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