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12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:22 am

Shore getting rocked on the Shore CAM

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights

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Post by Quietace Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:24 am

@amugs wrote:Shore getting rocked on the Shore CAM

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newjersey/seasideheights/?cam=seasideheights
Flooding everywhere

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:24 am

Interesting, that's a big difference, looking at models and accuwx, the winds have not come full force yet, accuwx has 25 sustained with gusts to 63 for today, gusts to 56 tonight, but at this point that looks to be overdoing it. I think it was sroc who said it is only around 1006mb so that's not really strong yet I think closer to noon and there on the winds really pick up, if they do at all. And from looks ofm radar looks to me like the heavy rain will last linger than 3 hrs, we will see, I am very surprised how little snow ended up north, saw ur post earlier 1-2 inches woohoo lol.
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:24 am

@aiannone wrote:Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?

this is one I use...

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:25 am

@amugs wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Does anyone have the link to the RGEM?

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 3 SN_000-048_0000

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_hrdps_amer_qc_06/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif

BINGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

That would be 6-8" for me!
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Post by Quietace Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:25 am

This band is just hanging on along the coast. Crazy

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:31 am

@Quietace wrote:This band is just hanging on along the coast. Crazy

Onshore flow + forcing = banding

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:31 am

jman southern half on nj done with first part of storm moving steadily north. heaviest rain from now til about noon before it tapers down not stop. as far as snow ill take whatever at this point.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:33 am

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 3 Inxr1Knyca_h

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:33 am

Check out that band! Imagine if this was snow? 4 inch per hour rates

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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:35 am

Frank, have you looked at my area at all? We have a warning for 6-10" but i'm just concerned warm air gets involved. Its 21 now with a dp of 19, but in SEVT they are already getting ZR, which was supposed to be snow
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:35 am

still heavy rain here
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:36 am

@aiannone wrote:Frank, have you looked at my area at all? We have a warning for 6-10" but i'm just concerned warm air gets involved. Its 21 now with a dp of 19, but in SEVT they are already getting ZR, which was supposed to be snow

A lot of warm air spewing into the mid levels of this storm. Since low level cold is plentiful, evidenced by your 21 degrees, this is a recipe for dangerous ice storm.

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Post by essexcountypete Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:37 am

@Quietace wrote:This band is just hanging on along the coast. Crazy
Yeah, and those of us in NNJ 15-20 miles inland have been spared the worst of the rain all morning. It's still a hard rain, but much uglier to the east of us in Hudson and Bergen Cos, with the NJ shore just getting hammered.


Last edited by essexcountypete on Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:38 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:37 am

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 3 Wv-animated

Upper level low passing south of Ohio Valley drawing up dry air. The rainfall portion of this storm will end pretty soon. Another hour or two.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:39 am

Frank I was mentioning that the winds do not seem much at all, is it not coming down, your first post you said may gust to 60mph, is that no longer your thinking, I know that was right along coast but even coast only seeing 30-40.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:41 am

2.70 inches so far everywhere is flooded major problems
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:41 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank I was mentioning that the winds do not seem much at all, is it not coming down, your first post you said may gust to 60mph, is that no longer your thinking, I know that was right along coast but even coast only seeing 30-40.

I've seen reports of 50+ near Jersey shore and long island 

Like I told you yesterday, winds are a difficult forecast. Need to have the right amount of convergence. Plus I don't think we've seen the right time frame yet. Give it till early afternoon. 

By the way...many areas can expect anowfall,  including the coast, late tonight into tomorrow. Surprise minor accumulations possible!

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:42 am

We are getting hammered too with that band, its stretch from southern EC right down jersey shore. So I guess if rain lightens then they will probably end the wind advisory bc I am not seeing a real need for it at this time, as I said earlier I am sick really do not care cause I am not going outside but I was just surprised.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:44 am

Oh ok Frank, I will let you know if I see anything pick up, and sweet about the snow part, will be watching from inside unless its light then I may go out for a little, but that's tomorrow or tonight right?
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:44 am

jman rgem looks nice for us tom night...

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2014120912_035

12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations - Page 3 I_nw_r1_EST_2014120912_037
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:46 am

On radar it looks like the dry air is breaking up the hardest areas of rain over WNJ and NE PA.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:46 am

Oh cool thats several hrs of some moderate snow cool, yet not so much because I have to drive to harlem at 5 and then back home at 10pm. But I will still take it I am a expert snow driver.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:52 am

the shore is getting hit hard once again
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Frank, have you looked at my area at all? We have a warning for 6-10" but i'm just concerned warm air gets involved. Its 21 now with a dp of 19, but in SEVT they are already getting ZR, which was supposed to be snow

A lot of warm air spewing into the mid levels of this storm. Since low level cold is plentiful, evidenced by your 21 degrees, this is a recipe for dangerous ice storm.

Gross, I want snow lmao. I'll post my obs here as to what occurs, but I am concerned about freezing rain.
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