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December 20th-21st Storm Threat

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gigs68
HectorO
Mannyjaffe
Quietace
Taffy
SoulSingMG
rb924119
aiannone
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NjWeatherGuy
jmanley32
sroc4
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CPcantmeasuresnow
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by amugs Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:15 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@gigs68 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@gigs68 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:

Yeah the big ones are what we all want but I'll take a few inches any day.  

That's what she said!

Haha!

Sorry, Couldn't resist.  It was just too easy. Laughing
I actually thought to myself while typing "should I put this in writing"  Next time I'll add a disclaimer.
I was just about to type the same post clown you beat me to it! At least we kindly tussle with one another on this board. Over at American WX where I also post, there"s been a lot of anger issues going on resulting in some bans. Man, we need a snowstorm in the worse way!

They all need to relieve a few inches of themselves with her (Pamela??) on that board - blood bath indeed!Evil or Very Mad

Gigs that was priceless indeed.Laughing Laughing

@Doc - common sense on this one to wait especially on the flip of the models the last 12-24 hours. Remember last year when we had all these northern vorts coming in and the globals couldn't sniff them out until about 20-36 hours before - had to rely on the srefs and nam - crazy!affraid

@Al - no way in the proverbial hell will I give credence to that piece of garbage american model gfs right now - it can't find it's way out o fa paper bag - totally lost - I should call Jim Witt to tell his prodigy Dr. Mark (? Stevenson) to scrap it at once and get its brother Para up to speed. bom

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:23 pm

Euro ensembles suck. I hope this changes back to Sunday solution in next day or two.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:25 pm

On another not the storm following that looks pretry intense but we have to get through 20th 21st before we get a clear picture of that one. Snow on xmas eve would be amaxing. Last year we had a have squall but no accumulstion. I agtee although we get frustrated I feel like we are a family here and never go off the deep end to the point of a ban.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by algae888 Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:39 pm

mugs even though the gfs is awful it might get this one right. we just can't seem to have a model hold on to solution that brings snow. I agree with cp do not get to excited until we are within 3 days. I kept myself in check with this storm. I am always hoping for the best but this one looks iffy at best. BTW I hear Pamela is looking for a new board to join.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by HectorO Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:47 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:Unless temps plan on dropping I don't see this weekend storm happening. Looks to actually start on Sunday and even then looks like it will be rain.

Temps wont need to start falling until Sat into Sunday.  

Right, which I don't see happening. Sunday looks to be even warmer. I'm gonna go ahead and scrap this one. It will be a rain event for many. Looking to the next one now late next week maybe.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by tigernumba1 Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:05 pm

just watched a clip of bernie rayno for this storm and he said without hesitation that I-95 south and east have no chance of accumulating snow. I think thats an early call for the reasons many have listed above about not having proper sampling yet.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by RJB8525 Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:49 pm

Lee thinks some wet snow flakes and rain for the weekend not a major storm. Xmas eve he thinks all rain but said of course we will keep watching for updates
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:28 pm

Man, the storm for 24/26th timeframe deepens to 979 on euro with very high winds and a ton of rain (yuck). ton of snow way inland, and 980mb on the Para GFS (yes I know no one looks at it but it is similar to Euro, versus this storm here.  Is there any chance this pushes off shore rather than a inland friggin hurricane on xmas?  Or is warm the word?  I know its 8 days off plus and little can be derived at this time but it sounds like both events if anything happens will be rain for us southern folk lol.

Note add on: CMC 12z also agrees for 24/25th storm rain and high winds, sub 985mb storm.  Super fun lol, at least I guess I will get to take some wind measurements with my anemometer, sigh.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:34 pm

Please keep discussions about the 24th storm in the long range thread and use this thread just for the 20th. Also, many lurkers I'm sure come to this thread for an update on the storm...not to read frustration posts or failed pattern changes, etc...

So, keep those type of posts in the banter thread (which I'm going to start right now)

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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:44 pm

Opps Frank I meant to put this in the long range sorry bout that can u move it?  Not sure what you mean about your second piece.

Oh I get it, good idea, complaining goes to banter, lol
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:45 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:Lee thinks some wet snow flakes and rain for the weekend not a major storm. Xmas eve he thinks all rain but said of course we will keep watching for updates

And last night Lee said he thought this would be a cold storm. Hopefully tomorrow night he's changing his mind again, or the models are changing his mind.
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:01 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:Lee thinks some wet snow flakes and rain for the weekend not a major storm. Xmas eve he thinks all rain but said of course we will keep watching for updates

And last night Lee said he thought this would be a cold storm. Hopefully tomorrow night he's changing his mind again, or the models are changing his mind.


Unfortunately that's the problem with TV Mets. They change their forecasts based on latest model projections. I remember watching Lee yesterday and I even posted here saying he thought it will be a cold storm. I'm not really into flip floppers. 

Anyway, I still think a minor snow event comes out of this, especially N&W of NYC

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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:12 pm

GFS is a miss for the weekend storm

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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:37 pm

GGEM has nothing
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December 20th-21st Storm Threat - Page 5 Empty Re: December 20th-21st Storm Threat

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:14 am

I'm going to lock this thread for now. No sense in trying to keep hope alive for a storm that clearly looks like has suffered from a way too vast Pac Jet. The threat of snow or rain showers for this time period still exists, maybe even a light accumulation, but I'll reopen it on Thursday if necessary.

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