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Official Long Range Thread 5.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:38 am

Jman I think it was you that wanted to know where all these indexes are found in the northern hemisphere. Here you go...

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Xbjo6o

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:16 am

Frank thanks for the map very cool, from looks of the xmas storm winds could be a real issue too no? Moreso than with the last storm, we appear to get squashed in a tight gradient (GFS has gusts 50-60 and Euro goes near hurricane force in some areas), of course I understand the forcing needed and is near impossible to predict, it may have been windier here had the rain coincided with the heaviest rain wit the last storm. We have to take the liquid with the white I guess, and I am still very optimistic, winter in my mind has not really started, (from most years I can remember, warmer Decembers have led to crazy snows just after and well into Late Feb or March. Theres some positivity for ya : ) Just because this is storm #10, maybe is storm #10 of 30 at this rate, if we get even half of those as snow wow!
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:24 am

What a big storm for Christmas Eve on the GFS. Look at all of the cold air behind the storm. That's the change that we have been waiting for. Possible snow squalls on Christmas Day? Christmas Day also looks cold on the GFS.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:30 am

I know its not a snow lovers dream but dang that's one intense storm look at the isobars over our area, that's some heavy rain and very strong winds. Not a good spot to be on a system in that position. Next frame bet it deepens even more.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Gfs_1210
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:34 am

No sense in talking about winds now. Remember last storm? The high winds were constrained to the immediate coast even though guidance insisted on bringing them further inland. Winds are a crap shoot. There could be isolated gusts of 60 or more, but they're not a consistent. I'll talk about winds 2 days before the storm but will mention in advance if the potential exists for high wind gusts that day

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:37 am

Ok makes sense was just amazed at the coverage for winds inland the GFS has on the models, usually its confined pretty close to the coast but it shows them wayyyy in land, 961mb over great lakes, they get really pummeled, of course this is 168+ hrs out so who knows exactly what will happen at this point, GFS was probably right on the 20/21st system though it seems.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:40 am

Keep an eye out here guys. 00z Euro over night and now 12z GFS and GFS evil twin are having the Sunday system in two parts. First part passes well south and east but energy hangs back and a second piece comes up the coast for the 23rd. We are not done yet

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:41 am

although does look warm

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:46 am

Wow 958 over north of GL, sheesh. Imagine if that does not swing NW, Frank what makes the system do that?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:12 pm

sroc holding the faith ground I like lol, well if its warm just rain no biggie.
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:16 pm

12z GGEM has the low for Christmas transferring just east of LI and then bombing out in SNE.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 1z559g5

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Wlonbo

Way different than the GFS and Euro
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Post by Snow88 Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:33 pm

Now this is what you want to see

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 8zh1nc
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:48 pm

Both images are nice the GGEM above and the Indices - Nice to see the EPO tank and PNA spike along with teh NAO go negative - SECS/MECS and possibly HECS signal if the AO doesn't squash the southern stream

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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:59 pm

I think the positive we can take from the long range besides the cold push after xmas is that the pacific is lined up with storm after storm. once the cold air and blocking gets established we should have many chances at seeing some good snows around here. I agree we usually do not see our first widespread snow in nyc until after xmas. the reason for the disappointment so far is that with all the good signals leading up to winter and predictions of a cold winter forecast by most knowledgeable mets we expected to see snow and cold by now but this is usually not the norm. we only have a 25% chance in nyc of seeing a white xmas. so my fellow snow weenies do not give up !!! btw hector i do not know any met who called for a mild winter maybe you can name some, but maue, dt, steve d, nws, accu wx. Anderson, twc to name a few all called for a cold and snowy winter. plus our very own frank!
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:09 pm

oh and hector maybe you can send a link from these mets so we all can see the science behind their forecast for a warm winter.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:10 pm

CMC MUCH weaker with xmas eve system, that's strange usually our most intense model.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:13 pm

Oh I just read the post from above, wxbell not there yet, bombs out over SNE strange.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:17 pm

Dayummm CMC maine gets crushed, 958mb from 990 something near LI wowza.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:21 pm

Heh Alex, you gonna be home at that time you gonna miss out on a heck of a snoestorm up in VT if the CMC happened, snow totals map is crazy, especially into maine but all way into VT too.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:25 pm

Euro coming in looking like a LP trying to develop up coast, sroc may be right, 2nd part may bring us something 20-21st time frame. Out to 114 hrs.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Euro_123
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:28 pm

Euro 132 hrs, but 850 temps and surface temps look warm. And like sroc said this looks like a 23rd event if anything. And then right on the heels, not much of a break, but if its all rain the only possible big deal is wind if any with the xmas storm, but like said Frank will let us know if that's a issue leading up to that timeframe.

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Euro_124
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:42 pm

Dang, one heck of a system, CMC alone on the off shore idea. Plenty of time to figure this one out and many changes to come, but I do not see this being snow in fact temps look to surge way into 50's. Check banter section for how I feel about this map lol

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Euro_125
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:44 pm

Not that it holds any ground but damn, that's some friggin wind! Damn near 60 degree temps, notxmas like at all : (

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 6 Euro_w11
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:00 pm

I just hope the timing of the cutter comes on Christmas Eve and not Xmas Day.

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Post by crippo84 Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:06 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I just hope the timing of the cutter comes on Christmas Eve and not Xmas Day.

Haha...Christmas Day is meant for sitting around with the family relaxing. Christmas Eve is meant for shopping and travel procrastinators to get that last minute stuff done. I for one will be traveling late on Christmas Eve. Let this thing come on Xmas day when I'm settled into my final destination with spiked egg nog in hand lol.
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