Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[sroc4]

GFS at 12z today still insisting on a minor to moderate snowfall for the weekend.

Given the pattern establishing itself as we speak I am concerned with a southern slider soln as we get closer.  Strong arctic HP is going to be a theme over the next 10-14days.  This one should be an interesting one to follow though.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea, just keep in mind that the potential exists for a snowstorm but the odds are equally there for rain as well. The GEFS and GGEM are cutters, so it's definitely a system too far out to take a model run seriously at this point.

[jmanley32]

Frank the GFS para 12z appears to bring the snow 5-6th, why are we saying 4-5th? Still to far out as stated to really make any trustable forecasts. And am so glad the new GFS will replace the old one soon so we can just call it the GFS, and people won't be looking at two different version, I do not even look at the old one anymore since its only about18 days away from being gone.

[jmanley32]

Wow cmc is a real rough wind and rain event and some serious snows verbatim north and crazy amounts way north towards canda border.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Let's be real, I don't think I've seen one of these so called wind events verify yet this season.

[Frank_Wx]

Let's be real, I don't think I've seen one of  these so called wind events verify yet this season.

There was one event that did verify but just for the immediate coastline. Rarely do I pay attention to winds until inside 3 days.

[jmanley32]

Yep, was just a observation from one run, I guess I need to specify that I am only talking about that one particular run. No way to know, the only one that verified was after thanksgiving where we had quite a bit of damage in my area (trees, no structures as far as I know).

[Frank_Wx]

What's interesting about the 7th-10th time frame is we have a well timed +PNA/-EPO couplet with established cold air on the east.

[jmanley32]

So which do you think is more likely for a snowstorm frank the 4-6th or 7-12th? BTW hope you all had a great holiday.

[jmanley32]

What in the heck did the Euro just do?  Has a huge tightening LP heading west of us and then NE over the area, looks to be a cutter again from the northern piece of engergy. Very tight isobars but little snow for the area, north gets slammed.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Let's be real, I don't think I've seen one of  these so called wind events verify yet this season.

Was just about to mention that, yawn.

[jmanley32]

Everything is yawn right about now, been a pretty uneventful year in all weather departments except Jan/Feb 2014. Lets hope we can crank things up during JF 2015.

[carvin1079]

It is so depressing

[Guest]

THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY WE GO FROM A CUTTER AND RAIN TO A SOUTHERN STORM SUPPRESSED INTO THE MID-ADLANTIC.  There has to be a middle of the road compromise right.  I saw that the NWS has changed the long range storm track way south and east from Detroit to off of Atlantic City.  Even mother nature can't be this cruel right??????????????????????

[SoulSingMG]

Let us ALL recenter ourselves & focus on what we WANT rather than what we are not getting.

[amugs]

The EURO splits the PV here - very nice look - I have been studying the solar effects on our Stratosphere it has been very active from about mid September until recently which has not helped our winter so far BUT it is slowing down considerably and we are stratingto see the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the upper levels and it takes anywhere from 7-14 days to translate down to the 500mb level where it is our weather and will affect us. It has been a slow process but the signs like I said last night in my post are very encouraging and I will say this again that 1977-78 analog being used maybe spot on IMO - as we will see the AO and NAO both go negative from this perturbation in the atmosphere.



Look at the warming by Greenland - that brings a tear to me eye I must say.

Very good signs going forward forward folks and I SAY AGAIN - I AM CALLING FOR A MECS IF NOT HECS 1/7 -10 time frame and another around the 22-25th time frame as well

[amugs]

Warming starting over Asia as we speak at 10mb level - 3 day old loop but good sign

[amugs]

MJO - look at the dates - if it verifies great things to come!!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

The EURO splits the PV here - very nice look - I have been studying the solar effects on our Stratosphere it has been very active from about mid September until recently which has not helped our winter so far BUT it is slowing down considerably and we are stratingto see the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the upper levels and it takes anywhere from 7-14 days to translate down to the 500mb level where it is our weather and will affect us.  It has been a slow process but the signs like I said last night in my post are very encouraging and I will say this again that 1977-78 analog being used maybe spot on IMO -  as we will see the AO and NAO both go negative from this perturbation in the atmosphere.



Look at the warming by Greenland - that brings a tear to me eye I must say.

Very good signs going forward forward folks and I SAY AGAIN - I AM CALLING FOR A MECS IF NOT HECS 1/7 -10 time frame and another around the 22-25th time frame as well

Its all just talk, well see if anything actually materializes...

[skinsfan1177]

Angus great news and positive vibes

[amugs]

Angus great news and positive vibes

Who's angus - I know a Pete Angus but he is not part of the board.

Anyway @Tom keep you chin up and hopes alive - we need the joo joo not the moo moo or nay nay or else that snow blower you bought will be sent to the scrap yard!

[jmanley32]

mugs hoping u are right but u did call storms before and ummm....hoping u keep ur crown.

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO splits the PV here - very nice look - I have been studying the solar effects on our Stratosphere it has been very active from about mid September until recently which has not helped our winter so far BUT it is slowing down considerably and we are stratingto see the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the upper levels and it takes anywhere from 7-14 days to translate down to the 500mb level where it is our weather and will affect us.  It has been a slow process but the signs like I said last night in my post are very encouraging and I will say this again that 1977-78 analog being used maybe spot on IMO -  as we will see the AO and NAO both go negative from this perturbation in the atmosphere.



Look at the warming by Greenland - that brings a tear to me eye I must say.

Very good signs going forward forward folks and I SAY AGAIN - I AM CALLING FOR A MECS IF NOT HECS 1/7 -10 time frame and another around the 22-25th time frame as well

Its all just talk, well see if anything actually materializes...

Actually, the SSW that took place last week worked. The PV is splitting in the short range and will be over the Hudson after New Years. The one Mugs is showing is another SSW that COULD happen mid month and help bring blocking to Greenland by the end of this month

[Guest]

Checked NWS just before going to bed. They have our area at 60% chance of precip Sat. night and 70% chance on Sunday with areawide solid 3/4" liquid equivalent or more. That's pretty high confidence almost 6 days out no??

[Dunnzoo]

00z Para gfs for Sunday

[jmanley32]

UGGGGLY!

[Dunnzoo]

Navgem has precip as well, CMC is just south and east, channel 7 is watching it, thinking it stays south, but if it comes north we get a mix

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