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Official Long Range Thread 5.0

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:21 pm

All 00z runs have a cutter, but I agree with all of what sroc says. We need to wait and see within 3 days, look at the last cutter was so hyped and that didn't even really transpire. Not saying we want a cutter, just pointing out that the models have done less than a stellar job.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:41 pm

Im beginning to think that for whatever reason, early pre winter cold and snow tends to yield these relatively warm and less snowy winters.. Ala 2011-2012 and this year so far...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:49 pm

NJ, I do not want to set the KOD but I have a aching feeling we may not see any measurable snow down here this winter (yeah its still early to say this but the months are creeping along. But hoping we get a surprise storm like that Dec 26th storm. Never know what mother nature has up her sleeve. I wonder if this will bring more extreme wx for the spring and hurricane season ,and next fall/DJF. I know without snow bugs will be terrible here. Here is hoping we can get a end of January through Feb into march a parade of storms.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:12 pm

For those wondering, if the storm does cut I'm not buying into anything significant in term of front end snow or frozen precip for our area. Maybe a brief period. Areas north and west of NYC though, especially out in PA, may have something to watch. I'll keep an eye on it. 

If the storm early next week does cut, which is not a guarantee yet, then our next threat of possible wintry weather will be a clipper system around the 7th-8th. And if that doesn't work out, we may have to wait until the end of January or early February since the EPO ridge is breaking down and the NAO/AO are both headed to a raging positive regime. 

Ouch.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:20 pm

I' am going into exile this is depressing.
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Post by Guest Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:50 pm

Anyone surprised?

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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:04 pm

This is how it works during El Niño.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:24 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:For those wondering, if the storm does cut I'm not buying into anything significant in term of front end snow or frozen precip for our area. Maybe a brief period. Areas north and west of NYC though, especially out in PA, may have something to watch. I'll keep an eye on it. 

If the storm early next week does cut, which is not a guarantee yet, then our next threat of possible wintry weather will be a clipper system around the 7th-8th. And if that doesn't work out, we may have to wait until the end of January or early February since the EPO ridge is breaking down and the NAO/AO are both headed to a raging positive regime. Well May February will bring us better luck

Ouch.
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:28 pm

National Weather Service has rain and snow Saturday and Saturday night for my area and snow for areas north and west of New York City the event looks to take place now on the 3rd and 4th. I don't have the ensembles so I'm wondering what they are showing. maybe National Weather Service is seeing something on them
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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:31 pm

from what I'm reading from other boards the ensembles especially on the GFS are showing a week or less phased system. Btw 18z nam does not phase the two. northern system well behind.


Last edited by algae888 on Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:32 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:This is how it works during El Niño.

Not at all. This has been far from a Nino pattern. It's closer to La Nina

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:33 pm

Maybe February we will get snow. With nao and ao going to a raging positive state doesn't sound good
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:This is how it works during El Niño.

Not at all. This has been far from a Nino pattern. It's closer to La Nina

I thought La Niña is when we see more snow and El Niño is less? Forgive me, I was living in LA during the last El Niño (when they received more rain in one month than in like 50 years)...Constant mudslides, flooding, was nuts.
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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:10 pm

Lets hope the clipper stays on the models. It looks good for the area as of right now.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:12 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:This is how it works during El Niño.

Not at all. This has been far from a Nino pattern. It's closer to La Nina

I thought La Niña is when we see more snow and El Niño is less? Forgive me, I was living in LA during the last El Niño (when they received more rain in one month than in like 50 years)...Constant mudslides, flooding, was nuts.

Typically we see bigger storms during El Niño and more lighter events during la nina.

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:32 pm

Snow88 wrote:Lets hope the  clipper stays on the models. It looks good for the area as of right now.


Well we have had quite a number of snowstorms on the models over 5 days out only to lose them once we get close to the event (or non-event). The same was the case for the 2011-12 season. In fact, the one storm we had during the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (1/21/12), as far as I know, did not appear on models until we were less than 5 days away from it. You can also say it was similar last winter. Two of the snowstorms we had last winter (1/21/14 and 2/3/14) were not seen on the models until we were within three days of the event. You can check them out on this forum to see how "sneaky" those storms were. And Anthony, if you can make it to the get-together a week from Saturday, I will show you how the models handled the storms (and non-storms) using images from my laptop.

As far as this system for next week, it looks pretty nice, especially with the possibility of a Miller B type storm. But I will not get excited about it until we are less than three days away from it and the models still have it.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:35 pm

Euro ensembles have some support for measurable snow verbatim for this coming weekend/early next week storm and in the long range almost all of them have some snow to major snow accumulations, but the snow models aren't very useful, but just thought i would point that out.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:45 pm

Of course it's going to snow next week, my birthday is Tuesday and all I want is snow! party

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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:16 pm

Hey Frank, Mugs, Al, Tony, Tom, et al. This is a great read regarding the AO and NAO and what not. Its long and technical but really informative.
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:52 pm

Jman and anyone else who wants to continue to understand all the terminology I found this site. VERY helpful. Want to know what the NAOor MJO are go here. Want to know what the PDO or AMO are come here. Book mark it.
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/weather-maker-glossary#_circulation

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:Hey Frank, Mugs, Al, Tony, Tom, et al. This is a great read regarding the AO and NAO and what not.  Its long and technical but really informative.  
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation


Doc you  me to it my man and a very interesting read but gives excellent points and data to back up his points. Good signs and saying we go negative AO and NAO from end of Jan 20th time frame to the beginning of March - 6 weeks if it were to come to fruition. Let's all remember that 1977-78 we had squat squat until Jan 20th and then we took off from there for the next 5 weeks with cold and snow.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:27 pm

2009-2010 was a Nino right?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:27 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:2009-2010 was a Nino right?

Yes

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Post by amugs Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:33 pm

Bite me 
Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Index

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Post by HectorO Wed Dec 31, 2014 12:58 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:This is how it works during El Niño.

Not at all. This has been far from a Nino pattern. It's closer to La Nina

I thought La Niña is when we see more snow and El Niño is less? Forgive me, I was living in LA during the last El Niño (when they received more rain in one month than in like 50 years)...Constant mudslides, flooding, was nuts.

Typically we see bigger storms during El Niño and more lighter events during la nina.

True, but we have seen quite a few good La Nina events also. More recent was 10/11
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:42 am

You can clearly see the phasing taking place on the CMC model in the Midwest when it comes to the storm early next week. Polar and southern jet meet up. It looks very likely the storm next week will cut to our west, bringing rain to our area. Some snow or wintry precip is possible at the start, especially north and west of NYC

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Post by Artechmetals Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:17 am

Hi Frank , why is this happening this season ? Seems like when everyone hypes up winter ( everyones been saying this winter will be snowy ) it turnes out to be a bust very depressing !
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