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Post by Guest Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:05 pm

Weather wise after all these non events the past month, if we were to get rain on Christmas Eve I would seriously consider never watching or looking for a weather report or forecast again. TALK ABOUT FRUSTRATION!! That would be the clincher for me. And don't talk to me about patience please.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:29 pm

I 100% agree rain on x-mas eve would suck, I really hope both of these events turn around. At this point its not about patience but about luck and waiting (thats all we can do is wait blah)
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:36 pm

I'm going with some of the earlier predictions of what some mets said earlier in the early fall that we would experience a milder winter this year. IF No pattern sets up the way you guys want it, we'll be talking about a patten change that probably will be talked about happening. In mid january.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:04 pm

I really haven't heard anything about a milder winter. The funny thing is winter isn't even here yet and im getting the sense already people writing it off. We rarely see snow in my area in December I actually like it in January and February that's when we cash in. Yes I think patience is what is needed its only December 16th
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:22 pm

@HectorO wrote:I'm going with some of the earlier predictions of what some mets said earlier in the early fall that we would experience a milder winter this year. IF No pattern sets up the way you guys want it, we'll be talking about a patten change that probably will be talked about happening. In mid january.

REALLY???? U are throwing in the towel for reasons being?? What is wrong with everyone - we are in a transition phase from late fall into winter - we have been spoiled by last winter and some previous over the past number of years. Milder in Fla but I do not at all see it here - talk to me in January when you are freezing your testes off better yet at the end of the month when we are a good number of degrees below normal.

Sorry for the rant - hey I know rain on xmas will SUCK!! but we have no cold air right now to help - the cross polar flow will and is starting to come about and I am posting in the long range what Judah Cohen is saying - let's face it last winter was abnormal in terms of cold . I am no met but I am ready to blow a fn gasket if I hear on more person say it's over - the season has not even begun - look at the long range and what "we" have been posting and talking about.

Sorry for the rant but ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,agghhhhh done!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 pm

Use this thread if you have a need to complain or make your frustration known. Do not use storm threads to do that.

Thanks!!

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:58 pm

Mad       Friggin' models! I swear I'm not looking at anything until 72 hours out! Mugs, pass the Baileys!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:08 pm

@amugs wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I'm going with some of the earlier predictions of what some mets said earlier in the early fall that we would experience a milder winter this year. IF No pattern sets up the way you guys want it, we'll be talking about a patten change that probably will be talked about happening. In mid january.

REALLY???? U are throwing in the towel for reasons being?? What is wrong with everyone - we are in a transition phase from late fall into winter - we have been spoiled by last winter and some previous over the past number of years. Milder in Fla but I do not at all see it here - talk to me in November when you are freezing your testes off better yet at the end of the month when we are a good number of degrees below normal.

Sorry for the rant - hey I know rain on xmas will SUCK!! but we have no cold air right now to help - the cross polar flow will and is starting  to come about and I am posting in the long range what Judah Cohen is saying - let's face it last winter was abnormal in terms of cold . I am no met but I am ready to blow a fn gasket if I hear on more person say it's over - the season has not even begun - look at the long range and what "we" have been posting and talking about.

Sorry for the rant but ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,agghhhhh done!!


I would love to talk to you in January. And after that I will love to talk to you in February when everyone is still awaiting a change. I could care less how last year started off. This is a new year. I wish there was a way to dig up old abc forums. I don't think I was wrong once  when I called off winter early. I called 11/12 winter off in November and never looked back as I wore a light sweater all winter. Anyways, not here to argue.  Just sit back and watch
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Post by Grselig Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:46 pm

Winter has not yet begun. Not giving up hope by any means. As fast as the storms fade, they quickly appear. However, it is the first night of Hanukah and I am going to invite over my two good friends Remy and Martin. Hennessy and Mr. and Mrs. Fonseca may show up as well.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:47 pm

Grselig I like your taste

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Post by Grselig Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Grselig I like your taste

They are very high maintenance friends!! Only come over on special times.
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Post by amugs Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:33 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Use this thread if you have a need to complain or make your frustration known. Do not use storm threads to do that.

Thanks!!


Good idea and not a problem.

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Post by Snow88 Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:23 pm

Insane. This went from a possible big storm to nothing. 0z GFS doesn't even have a storm.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:48 am

snow88 none of the models really have a storm now. im over it, next!
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:05 am

Frickin' amazing with this storm - learn something new all the time - was getting excited when the ensembles were barking at this which are a good for guidance measures but then again it is still a model not the end all of be all. BUT I still will give it until Tomorrow - we have seen the flip flop with models - there is so much happening during the transition time periods that it can lose things completely only to bring them back - wishcasting.....................maybe.............well yes, weenie in me ...........of course, but we'll see. Not saying a MECS at this stage but a light event if we can squeeze a couple of inches out that would be a plus IMB.

That beast for xmas will be a pattern changer IMO.  Snow on the back end?? Would be nice instead of being a Grinch!!

Frank pointed it out and Cohen released late last week that SSW will help split the PV which has undoubtedly a biag and won't split like a gymnast on the floor routine but this next one should do the trick and when we get successive SSW in the cycle of solar activity it can become entrenched - looking at end Dec to mid/late feb (20th) for this to entrench - the winter days that are normal for our area to see cold and snow. Hey still looking at a MECS/HECS for the Jan 7 time frame - 1996 redux as well as the 22-25th timeframe - MECS maybe more??


Last edited by amugs on Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:16 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:06 am

I know Frank Locked the Sunday storm thread but I have a hunch we will be reopening it by tomorrow morning. The system that will interact with the STJ looks very robust(the swirl headed S towards NW Cali. Notice the blue to the east and the black to the west side of it. If it comes ashore today and tonight a cont to be strong the models will adjust and we will see a stronger interaction along the EC. In theory of course. Again the timing is everything. My point is its not looking good on models, but current observations say give it till tomorrow 12z to lay it to rest officially. For the record I am still not looking at a blockbuster, but a colder minor snowy soln still has a chance.

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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by Quietace Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:25 am

I miss 09-10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:59 am

It's great that we can all look ahead and see possibilities but we have to see them only as that and until we're within 3-4 days of these things, remote possibilities at best. I can't even remember the last time we saw a really big storm on the models 7 or more days out and actually had it hit our area as projected that far out.

The long range is fun but some people take it way to literal, that far out. Our forecasters here are only pointing out what could be. Thankfully as in this recent what now looks to be non event they can give us almost a weeks warning that what looked good on the 8-10 day most likely won't happen, like the long range models originally showed.

The moral of the story is, view the long range what it is, a hint at something that could be, that numerous other things can mess up. Like I've said many times I've learned through the years to not get hyped up until a couple of days before, and even then at the last minute things can go horribly wrong or right. Listen close to what the experts on here say, not what you want to hear but what they actually say and you won't find yourself disappointed.

I do admit I cried myself to sleep last night but I'm over it now. Let's bring on the Christmas Eve rainstorm, ughhhh, nothing worse weather wise than that.
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Post by amugs Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:34 am

Well stated CP and me too - my kids were very upset that I was upset - I told them that fn grinch and Mr. Heat Miser are coming to town - what a combo the Grinch and Heat Miser.

Ace i ditto those sentiments but I think we start to turn the corner sooner rather than later.

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:16 am

I have seen people post on blogs saying there's always a possibility that the weekend storm comes back and becomes a major east coast snowstorm and they use Boxing Day 2010 as example. Well even though the models struggled with Boxing Day 2010 until we were less than 2 days from the storm, we had an NAO reading of -0.8 and an AO reading of -4.0! These features greatly favor a "Godzilla" storm on the I-95 corridor which the models struggled with a the time. As of today (12/17/14), we have an NAO reading of +1.5 and an AO reading of +1.3, not necessarily favorable for big east coast snowstorms. And while we had two significant east coast snowstorms that models did not pick up on until 1-2 days before the event last winter (1/21) and (2/3), several days before those storms took place we had a strong negative AO. Now there are hints that the AO and NAO tank by Christmas but who knows anything at this point.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:17 am

@Math23x7 wrote:I have seen people post on blogs saying there's always a possibility that the weekend storm comes back and becomes a major east coast snowstorm and they use Boxing Day 2010 as example.  Well even though the models struggled with Boxing Day 2010 until we were less than 2 days from the storm, we had an NAO reading of -0.8 and an AO reading of -4.0! These features greatly favor a "Godzilla" storm on the I-95 corridor which the models struggled with a the time. As of today (12/17/14), we have an NAO reading of +1.5 and an AO reading of +1.3, not necessarily favorable for big east coast snowstorms.  And while we had two significant east coast snowstorms that models did not pick up on until 1-2 days before the event last winter (1/21) and (2/3), several days before those storms took place we had a strong negative AO.  Now there are hints that the AO and NAO tank by Christmas but who knows anything at this point.

Exactly right Mike. 2 different patterns.

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Post by HectorO Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:21 pm

I read an article today about a Russian scientist talking about how long ice ages and warming periods lasts in our planet. Some can be anywhere from 200-300 years. He believes our planet will still be in a warming one until 2050. By then he expects our planet to start its phase of going into an ice age again which could take 100 years on top of that to transition into. We'll all be dead by then lol. Maybe our great grand children can experience it. I'll try to find the link again. On my phone right now.
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Post by bloc1357 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:30 pm

@HectorO wrote:I read an article today about a Russian scientist talking about how long ice ages and warming periods lasts in our planet. Some can be anywhere from 200-300 years. He believes our planet will still be in a warming one until 2050. By then he expects our planet to start its phase of going into an ice age again which could take 100 years on top of that to transition into. We'll all be dead by then lol. Maybe our great grand children can experience it. I'll try to find the link again. On my phone right now.

Not to start a global warming or cooling debate...but there are a lot of scientists and mets, that say the planet has stopped warming and actually has been cooling over the last 15 years. Just saying

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Post by amugs Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:39 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I read an article today about a Russian scientist talking about how long ice ages and warming periods lasts in our planet. Some can be anywhere from 200-300 years. He believes our planet will still be in a warming one until 2050. By then he expects our planet to start its phase of going into an ice age again which could take 100 years on top of that to transition into. We'll all be dead by then lol. Maybe our great grand children can experience it. I'll try to find the link again. On my phone right now.

Not to start a global warming or cooling debate...but there are a lot of scientists and mets, that say the planet has stopped warming and actually has been cooling over the last 15 years.  Just saying

Bloc - I read a paper by a German leading UN scientist (not any more) Lindtker........ (?) and I have to find it I posted here as well back in late October - all this is interesting but we go through these cycles - he said we are in a mini cooling cycle just teh opposite and guess what was let go or he resigned (twist of the arm?/)

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Post by bloc1357 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:45 pm

@amugs wrote:
@bloc1357 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I read an article today about a Russian scientist talking about how long ice ages and warming periods lasts in our planet. Some can be anywhere from 200-300 years. He believes our planet will still be in a warming one until 2050. By then he expects our planet to start its phase of going into an ice age again which could take 100 years on top of that to transition into. We'll all be dead by then lol. Maybe our great grand children can experience it. I'll try to find the link again. On my phone right now.

Not to start a global warming or cooling debate...but there are a lot of scientists and mets, that say the planet has stopped warming and actually has been cooling over the last 15 years.  Just saying

Bloc - I read a paper by a German leading UN scientist (not any more) Lindtker........ (?) and I have to find it I posted here as well back in late October - all this is interesting but we go through these cycles - he said we are in a mini cooling cycle just teh opposite and guess what was let go or he resigned (twist of the arm?/)

Absolutely, I agree these cycles happen. There will be debates forever about warming and cooling.

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