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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:49 pm

The Euro for xmas sucks, heavy rain and damaging winds verbatim (and honestly I have not seen such a huge or rapidly deepening system like this in a long time, the one time of year I would rather not see that type of system. But models fairly consistent so far, but look what happened with the sooner storm, could go poof, but I think its much to vast a system to do that.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The Euro for xmas sucks, heavy rain and damaging winds verbatim (and honestly I have not seen such a huge or rapidly deepening system like this in a long time, the one time of year I would rather not see that type of system. But models fairly consistent so far, but look what happened with the sooner storm, could go poof, but I think its much to vast a system to do that.

I think it is likely to cut unfortunately. H5 closes off over the Midwest, and with a -PNA, that just screams cutter to me.

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Post by HectorO Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:59 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:
@HectorO wrote:I read an article today about a Russian scientist talking about how long ice ages and warming periods lasts in our planet. Some can be anywhere from 200-300 years. He believes our planet will still be in a warming one until 2050. By then he expects our planet to start its phase of going into an ice age again which could take 100 years on top of that to transition into. We'll all be dead by then lol. Maybe our great grand children can experience it. I'll try to find the link again. On my phone right now.

Not to start a global warming or cooling debate...but there are a lot of scientists and mets, that say the planet has stopped warming and actually has been cooling over the last 15 years.  Just saying


Not a debate about global warming him, it's just how our solar system and plan it works. I agree with his protection on 2050, because just like seasons have a rocky transition I believe this will also. I posted a link a few months back with several news articles some even from the Washington Post that talked about people questioning why certain chunks of sea ice were expanding And not shrinking. One of them is a chunk that Al Gore said should have been a puddle by now LOL. And yes I know. Al gore talking about science is comical.
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:The Euro for xmas sucks, heavy rain and damaging winds verbatim, the one time of year I would rather not see that type of system.


jman it may very well be that this system breaks this pattern and sets up our winter. there are several mets that have stated on other boards that this is text book (xmas storm}. mid lat cyclone over Midwest forcing heights to rise over Greenland and driving down cold air. changes 500mb pattern. question is for how long? add in SSW and chances are good for pattern to last. although the thought of rain wind and warm on xmas makes me want to vomit, i'll take it if it sets up the winter pattern that we have all been waiting for.
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Post by HectorO Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:06 pm

Autocorrect sucks. Sorry for typos.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:07 pm

A huge cutter Frank! And IMO with those isobars so tightly packed o nthe front side and heavy precip coinciding and temps near 60 degrees, winds will be a issue all models showing winds gusting well over 60mph for a good portion of a 18 hour period. This is in my opinion by no means am I forecasting this, nor am I not hearing what you say Frank about the factors with winds, I will wait for your official word on whats going to happen on xmas eve but this looks like a dangerous storm to me. And a very inopportune time too.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:12 pm

Hey Al, that seems perfectly fine for long range its pertinent info. This section is for whining lol.
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey Al, that seems perfectly fine for long range its pertinent info.  This section is for whining lol.
jman how do I transfer this to long range thread?
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:37 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Hey Al, that seems perfectly fine for long range its pertinent info.  This section is for whining lol.
jman how do I transfer this to long range thread?

Al Copy and paste it over there. Ill delete the one here if you cannot.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:46 pm

I don't why everyone is always so ready to write off December. It's a quarter of our winter, it has the lowest sun angles of any month, so it's one of the best time to have snow, and it's the holiday and Christmas season. Plus even NYC averages 5.5 inches of snow in December so it's not like we shouldn't expect it. This probably should be in complaining spread. I'll copy it over and delete from here.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:47 pm

I'm dreaming of a grey damp Christmas. come on sing it with me now.. This sucks soooo much if it works out. Just a thought here. Every time we are forecast to get rain it always verifies no problem. Conversely most times we're forecast to get snow and cold it seems to not work out. AS A FELLOW SNOW WEENIE THIS DRIVES ME NUTS!!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:49 pm

CP you put itin the right place this is the complaining banter section lol.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:56 pm

Al I moved your post about Steve D to the LR thread

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by algae888 Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Al I moved your post about Steve D to the LR thread
tku
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Post by carvin1079 Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:29 pm

Can't get a flake around these parts of town rather nyc Lee Goldberg said we had a inch in the park already can someone tell me when we had this

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 17, 2014 6:37 pm

@carvin1079 wrote:Can't get a flake around these parts of town rather nyc  Lee Goldberg said we had a inch in the park already can someone tell me when we had this

Central Park had an inch of snow December 10th

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:24 pm

Well, CP you posted in another thread stating that major east coast snowstorms come and go on the models but GLC 8 days out are consistent and usually verify. Well, in terms of the warmth and the rain for us, it's pretty consistent, but think about it from a mid-west perspective. The ensembles vary over whether it moves north near Lake Michigan or Lake Huron. This means the rain/snow line could be as far west as Wisconsin, or as far east as perhaps Detroit. So I'm sure residents in that neck of the woods won't quite call this a consistent forecast as we approach it. Also keep in mind we had a big coastal storm right before Thanksgiving but the question was where the rain/snow line would be just like what they will be asking next week.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:32 pm

LOL, reading the posts on this thread is hilarious.It's like a bunch of old Italian grandmothers arguing about whether you call it sauce or gravy.

For crying out loud, it's still fall, winter has not arrived yet.I remember Christmases when it was sunny in the 50's way back when.There were many rainy Christmases.Sorry to say, around these parts, white Christmases are NOT the norm.Don't give up the ship until early February.

If this year craps out, you've got the next and then the next.Most of you are youngsters and will see 30 or 40 winters or more.People have been spoiled with the snowy winters the last ten years.In the last 54 years, there have been 5 to 6 year periods of crappy winters in a row.If you want surefire, constant snowfalls, you've got to move to snowbelt areas and away from here.
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Post by Grselig Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:48 pm

@docstox12 wrote:LOL, reading the posts on this thread is hilarious.It's like a bunch of old Italian grandmothers arguing about whether you call it sauce or gravy.

For crying out loud, it's still fall, winter has not arrived yet.I remember Christmases when it was sunny in the 50's way back when.There were many rainy Christmases.Sorry to say, around these parts, white Christmases are NOT the norm.Don't give up the ship until early February.

If this year craps out, you've got the next and then the next.Most of you are youngsters and will see 30 or 40 winters or more.People have been spoiled with the snowy winters the last ten years.In the last 54 years, there have been 5 to 6 year periods of crappy winters in a row.If you want surefire, constant snowfalls, you've got to move to snowbelt areas and away from here.
Doc 

Can't agree more.  That's why I will always cherish 1978, 1983, 1996 and Boxing Day.   The great ones are few but incredible experiences.   They might not be so memorable if they happen on a regular basis.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:52 pm

Cp u are totally right. This cutter looks more intense than anything I have seen in quite a while and even if it's rain the wind if holds verbatim will be a very big problem for a huge part of the country.
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Post by HectorO Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:53 pm

@docstox12 wrote:LOL, reading the posts on this thread is hilarious.It's like a bunch of old Italian grandmothers arguing about whether you call it sauce or gravy.

For crying out loud, it's still fall, winter has not arrived yet.I remember Christmases when it was sunny in the 50's way back when.There were many rainy Christmases.Sorry to say, around these parts, white Christmases are NOT the norm.Don't give up the ship until early February.

If this year craps out, you've got the next and then the next.Most of you are youngsters and will see 30 or 40 winters or more.People have been spoiled with the snowy winters the last ten years.In the last 54 years, there have been 5 to 6 year periods of crappy winters in a row.If you want surefire, constant snowfalls, you've got to move to snowbelt areas and away from here.

Hey I like the nicer weather trust me. And after December snow to me is useless. Messy, wet, causes accidents. Causes me late to work and no more holidays. If I had money I would move to San diego. And please don't tell me how many winters I have left I feel old lol.
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:54 am

Doc,

People think the clock turns 12-1 and we should have winter - everyone thinks the same with spring too as we enter March - the reality is we are sooooooo here and now society that if anything else bucks this trend we write it off as failure.

Do i personally think that we will have a good winter - hell yes - the signs are there - can it change - of course its the weather but to say winter cancel or warm winter ahead with out some thing to back it up is like yellow journalism IMO - the old they said - who the hell are they??

People do not have the patients anymore and those who do will do better.

Other boards and some here live run to run and if one run is bad they say the pattern pooped the bed and its over - my god has anyone seen the algorithms and physics calculations that these computers crunch? I have and its unbelievable - one slight error - parenthesis in the wrong place - wrong symbol and the whole thing goes to pot - if you know this math and science.

One thing that has screwed this pattern up is the Aleutian Low that formed and the PV being massively stubborn even after two great ssw events - it would not budge as it was progged - the data and weather if you will were there but it did not get the result - we are in the process yes process not instant of it happening SSW and the Aleutian low retrograding west/dissipating so the -epo can build back in.

Go to go.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:52 am

I think a lot of the reason for the lack of patience this year is all the mass hysteria and hype from so many media outlets about the winter to come. Sorry to say but the good ole NWS has been pretty spot on with their monthly forecasts which contradicted many pro and amateur mets.

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Post by amugs Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I think a lot of the reason for the lack of patience this year is  all the mass hysteria and hype from so many media outlets about the winter to come.  Sorry to say but the good ole NWS has been pretty spot on with their monthly forecasts which contradicted many pro and amateur mets.

NWS being NOAA/NCEP showed a torch for December and November - temps wise - did not verify for Nov as we were -2+* and dec we shall come in about average to maybe below (slightly). If this is wast you are referring to even for NYC.

Remember all thrown 95-96 analog was never thrown around here or I do not by what pro met but 2002-03, 1977-78, 2009-10 was used a couple times too recalling even 2003-04 but the fact being we had cold those years in December but only two had snow 2009 of course but right after xmass and 2002 - two big snowstorms.

It will be interesting going forward but I think we see an accumulating snow before we end the month with the pattern shaping up. If we don't I am then wrong and I can handle this and will admit it.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:14 pm

On the NWS homepage they have our winter outlook (Dec. thru early March) at wetter than average which so far is true, and normal to slightly above temperature which so far ( I know it's early) has also verified.

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