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Post by amugs Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:19 pm

syosnow94 wrote:On the NWS homepage they have our winter outlook (Dec. thru early March) at wetter than average which so far is true, and normal to slightly above temperature which so far ( I know it's early) has also verified.

Absolutely true so far. 9.8 weeks to go. If this pattern change verifies and the PV splits as progged and settles into NE Canada then they bust IMO as we go into the freezer for a good stretch of time with successive SSWE (Stratospheric Warming Events) that will occur in Jan and Feb.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:00 pm

It was a cold November and so far above normal temps and below normal snowfall in December. Those are the facts.

Writing off December all the time is nuts. It's our third snowiest month, and actually the best month to have snow, holidays, low sun angle.

Of the 14 Decembers since 2000 there have been 7 Decembers in Central Park with 8.6 inches or more of snow and 7 winters with 6.0 inches or less and granted a few of those 7 with 0. So everyone please stop with I don't expect snow In December, you should expect it and we usually get it, quite often we get plenty.

BTW- This December so far sucks, don't make excuses for it, December can take the criticism.

Thank you for the Banter thread Frank, I had to get that off my chest. Hopefully this time I'm in the banter thread
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:25 pm

For me I can careless about December usually for my area we don't see much snow anyway. January and February are the months we cash in and as it looks now things will change for the better after xmas.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:34 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:It was a cold November and so far above normal temps and below normal snowfall in December. Those are the facts.

Writing off December all the time is nuts. It's our third snowiest month, and actually the best month to have snow, holidays, low sun angle.

Of the 14 Decembers since 2000 there have been 7 Decembers in Central Park with 8.6 inches or more of snow and 7 winters with 6.0 inches or less and granted a few of those 7 with 0. So everyone please stop with I don't expect snow In December, you should expect it and we usually get it, quite often we get plenty.

BTW- This December so far sucks, don't make excuses for it, December can take the criticism.

Thank you for the Banter thread Frank, I had to get that off my chest. Hopefully this time I'm in the banter thread

Haha, your welcome. 

By the way CP, I think some people who live in more south and east areas (even west toward Phillly) they probably have different Dec stats and probably only average 2-4 inches the entire month. CPK even averages 4, don't they? I certainly don't cancel winter based on 1 month. If this were Jan 18th then I would have higher concern

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:55 pm

Frank

I know what you mean about south of NYC, skins & ace for example.

Over the last 30 years CPK averages 4.8 inches in December. Historically they average 5.6 inches in December which is the 145 year average.

I tend to look at the 145 average as a better comparison. The 30 year is from Jan 1981 through December 2010. This includes the the least snowiest decade in recorded history which was the 1980's. We've been on a nice uptrend since.
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Post by bloc1357 Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:21 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank

I know what you  mean about south of NYC, skins & ace for example.

Over the last 30 years CPK averages 4.8 inches in December. Historically they average 5.6 inches in December which is the 145 year average.

I tend to look at the 145 average as a better comparison. The 30 year is from Jan 1981 through December 2010. This includes the the least snowiest decade in recorded history which was the 1980's. We've been on a nice uptrend since.

If I had to take a guess....I would bet that the average of 4.8 inches for December in CPK is way towards the end of the month mostly after Christmas. I'm 38 and do I remember White Christmas' yes I do. But I wouldn't say it is a regular occurrence.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:36 pm

I read a stat that said white christmas' in CPK are 1-2 times every decade

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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:44 pm

Pretty poor average but as you said before, this is the area we live in.

Congrats Frank on completing your exams and college and all the best out in Hackettstown at Mars.I'd say some celebratory partying is in order for the Holiday Season.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:49 pm

Thanks Doc! I'll probably be going out all this weekend.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I read a stat that said white christmas' in CPK are 1-2 times every decade

First of all congratulations Frank, a huge accomplishment and just the beginning of many great things in store in your future.

For a White Christsmas, again using the 30 year average in CPK it is about 15% using the 145 year average it's closer to 25%. In the HV its 35%-50% depending how far north and west.

Unless you live along the great lakes, rocky mountains, Northern NY and Northern New England or the UPPER midwest the chances aren't very high anywhere in the country.

Case in point Kansas City right in the heart of the Midwest the probability is 20%.

I guess our white Thanksgiving this year will have to suffice cause we aint getting a white Christmas.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:55 pm

That's so great, Frank. Ahhh, young, full of energy and a bright future ahead.Wish I could buy you a beer.I'll do that at the second get together!
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:04 pm

Thanks CP I trust your stats much more 

@doc- glad you're coming! Looking forward to it!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:04 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank

I know what you  mean about south of NYC, skins & ace for example.

Over the last 30 years CPK averages 4.8 inches in December. Historically they average 5.6 inches in December which is the 145 year average.

I tend to look at the 145 average as a better comparison. The 30 year is from Jan 1981 through December 2010. This includes the the least snowiest decade in recorded history which was the 1980's. We've been on a nice uptrend since.

If I had to take a guess....I would bet that the average of 4.8 inches for December in CPK is way towards the end of the month mostly after Christmas.  I'm 38 and do I remember White Christmas' yes I do.  But I wouldn't say it is a regular occurrence.

You could take that guess, but you would be wrong.
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Post by bloc1357 Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:23 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@bloc1357 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank

I know what you  mean about south of NYC, skins & ace for example.

Over the last 30 years CPK averages 4.8 inches in December. Historically they average 5.6 inches in December which is the 145 year average.

I tend to look at the 145 average as a better comparison. The 30 year is from Jan 1981 through December 2010. This includes the the least snowiest decade in recorded history which was the 1980's. We've been on a nice uptrend since.

If I had to take a guess....I would bet that the average of 4.8 inches for December in CPK is way towards the end of the month mostly after Christmas.  I'm 38 and do I remember White Christmas' yes I do.  But I wouldn't say it is a regular occurrence.

You could take that guess, but you would be wrong.


I might be off by a little bit...but if you do the math of that 145 year avg. 25% chance of a white christmas works out to be about 2.5 white christmas' per decade. Unless i did the math wrong, which is possible. I was just saying, i'm from long island and I dont remember tons of white christmas'

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:04 pm

I didn't mean the % of white Christmas part of it, the 15%-25% figure is correct, I meant the part about the majority of the snow in December falling after Christmas, that is incorrect.
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Post by bloc1357 Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:09 pm

I get what you are saying. But they kinda go hand in hand. Like i said i'm from long island, so it is definitely a bit different here. But if there is only 15%-25% chance of a white christmas, which is at the end of the month. I just figured that the avg of 4.8 inches was more towards the end of the month. I'm sure there are records for each day of December and when the majority of the anow in December falls. Does it snow that much more before christmas then melt before christmas then snow after? Just as the thread says...banter, i dont want you to think im trying to pick a fight....just friendly banter.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:48 pm

Exactly. Last year was the perfect example. There was 8.6 inches of snow in Central Park in December that all fell before Christmas. Last year in Central Park however was not considered a white Christmas because like you said it melted before Christmas Day.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:36 am

GFS-PARA NYE

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:46 am

Very nice Frank but what day is this for?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:47 am

Sorry, NYE = New Years Eve

Any fantasy storms I am just going to post here in banter just to look at  Thumbs up

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:52 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I didn't mean the % of white Christmas part of it, the 15%-25% figure is correct, I meant the part about the majority of the snow in December falling after Christmas, that is incorrect.

Been thinking about this thread CP and what bloc mentions.I wonder what the stats would be at Central park using Dec. 15th as the dividing line.In 54 years, I only remember two major snowstorms before that Dec 15th slot, Dec 1960 and one in the 2000's.It seems to me Dec 1 to Dec 15 snows are not that often.Again, this is all through a glass darkly with my fading memories and I defer to your excellent statistical analysis, but it's just a gut feeling anyway.
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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS-PARA NYE

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Jeez, that is just beautiful lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:00 pm

OMG im drooling, Fantasy or maybe not we will have a hopeful pattern change by then : ) How did you see that though as para only goes out 240? which takes us to the 29th?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 19, 2014 1:03 pm

Regular 00z GFS has that at the 2nd, we will see long way to go before comes in range of any other models, but again Frank where do you get the longer range para?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 19, 2014 2:53 pm

just for kicks accuwx has a major ice storm for Jan 22-23rd (where do they get this stuff) for neat 0.8 inches of freezing rain for my area. Not a fantasy storm but ridiculous when was the last time we ever had a ice storm, last year their long range forecasts showed this a lot too.
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