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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:#fantasy #rain #coldtrend

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 39 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f372

you should see the 00z fantasy mega roidzilla icestorm hr 384, lol if its the same storm id did trend colder, totally joking around but that time frame i believe u said has to be watched or a bit prior to it. Long ways off.
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Post by Abba701 Sun Feb 08, 2015 12:53 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I disagree about the wind part Abba. In areas outside the city of course clear skies and calm winds with a good snow pack is the ideal for radiational cooling. In NYC with the heat Island effect calm nights are not the ideal for their low temperatures. To offset the effects of the heat island you need a good stiff breeze. Their coldest nights are usually the first night of the passage of an arctic front where winds are higher as the cold air invades, and effects of the heat island are somewhat nullified by the winds which doesn't let the heat that is absorbed  by the roads, buildings, and pavement to settle in.

I was thinking about that.I thought I read though that the wind could stop temps from falling.But clouds is a real stoppage.And I hate it when the temperature gets to like 20 or 10 and then right then the wind direction shifts preventing it from dipping to below that.sometimes that makes the temp rise and then you know that the temps are either rising or steady for the rest of the night.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:49 am

Abba yes no wind, clear skies and snow pack make for the coldest nights outside the heat island as stated above. In NYC the difference is no wind allows the heat island effect to keep temperatures warmer than they might be. The winds negate much of the heat island effect in the city.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:53 am

Very interesting fact,CP.It's the total opposite of what happens up here.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:59 am

I know this is more off topic but man this stuff is cool.   Indirectly all the physics you see here can be applied to how weather works, so Ill leave it in the Wx banter thread..lol

Remember, all those amazing astronomy images are much more than 2D images…

(the Elephant’s Trunk nebula in 3D)

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 39 He-Elephant’s-Trunk-nebula-in-3D.

Not all Gasses have the same Density
Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 39 Sulphur-hexaflouride

This is how Tension works in relation to falling objects
Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 39 How-tension-works

Here is the link where I found these.  Pretty cool stuff.  
http://www.fromquarkstoquasars.com/20-gifs-teach-science-concepts-seconds/

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Abba701 Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:35 pm

National weather service now has a low of 1 for Central Park on Friday Night.I really think it will change.It might get into the single digits but not to 1.

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Post by Taffy Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:01 pm

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 39 57434629
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Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:23 am

Is Jeff smith a pshyic? How does he know Friday night will be the coldest night.The weather channel is starting to back off on the brutal temps.Still very cold but only 2 nights of single digits.They had 4 nights last week in the forecast

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:42 am

Jesus, with the wind from that storm around 15th/16th that shows on the GFS has windchills down to NYC -20 to -40 below, that cannot be serious, please tell me thats a joke! Day after tomorrow here we come!
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:43 am

I was watching the news station last night in Philly (KYW 3). They were doing a winter updated forecast and they explained why Boston was getting hit hard this year. They said that this area probably would not be getting any big snow storms because the way the blocking has set up and the + NAO. They felt it will being staying + for the duration of this month. Anyone have any thought's on this ? It doesn't sound to promising for us. I guess we'll have to wait and see if their right.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:52 am

+Nao doesn't mean we can't get snow and I'm not sure of that snowman if we pump up that ridge in the west and a deepvtrough in the east like long range models showing that may be a - nao not sure though
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 09, 2015 5:58 am

Skins, I hear you and I'm hoping things do work out. But the way things have been going I'm starting to lose faith.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:01 am

I know but I still believe in one big one left for us
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:09 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I know but I still believe in one big one left for us


Skins, I'll be doing every good luck ritual to make it happen. Rubbing my rabbits foot, crossing my fingers and toes. You name it I'll be doing it. LOL !
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:22 am

the ao and nao(blocking) for rest of month doesn't look to good. however we have done just fine these last two years with out it. as skins said is we get a -epo/+pna that can often overcome the lack of blocking. its what drove our winter last year and what will be happening the next 2 weeks. so all is not lost. the +nao hurts philly and points south more than us at the 40* lat. a -nao often suppresses storms to our south. what I have been reading up on about the nao is that we do better at our lat. when their are fluctuations with it. fluctuations help with cyclogenesis. allows storm to strengthen where as a consistent -nao could inhibit storms from getting strong. do not know if that is totally true but its what I've read recently. my feeling is that the nao is overrated. I wish there was a study done to see how many storms missed us because of it. my gut feeling is that it more often suppresses storms and hence places like va. beach end up with more snow than us. as with most of our storms all these factors have to line up just right so to take one or two of them and say there will be snow or no snow is just wrong imo.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:41 am

Joe Cioffi had a good blog on the someone posted link here about the possibility of upcoming pattern
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:53 am

@algae888 wrote:the ao and nao(blocking) for rest of month doesn't look to good. however we have done just fine these last two years with out it. as skins said is we get a -epo/+pna that can often overcome the lack of blocking. its what drove our winter last year and what will be happening the next 2 weeks. so all is not lost. the +nao hurts philly and points south more than us at the 40* lat. a -nao often suppresses storms to our south. what I have been reading up on about the nao is that we do better at our lat. when their are fluctuations with it. fluctuations help with cyclogenesis. allows storm to strengthen where as a consistent -nao could inhibit storms from getting strong. do not know if that is totally true but its what I've read recently. my feeling is that the nao is overrated. I wish there was a study done to see how many storms missed us because of it. my gut feeling is that it more often suppresses storms and hence places like va. beach end up with more snow than us. as with most of our storms all these factors have to line up just right so to take one or two of them and say there will be snow or no snow is just wrong imo.

Thanks Al for your input. It gives me hope that we'll continue to get some decent snow events.
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:20 am

snow to me the most important ingredient for snow is cold air. as long as we have that we have a chance even when storms cut. well we have a whole lot of that to work with the next week or two.
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:42 am

We just spent a week tracking and some of us hyping a complete NON EVENT. Damn this sucks.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:49 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:I was watching the news station last night in Philly (KYW 3). They were doing a winter updated forecast and they explained why Boston was getting hit hard this year. They said that this area probably would not be getting any big snow storms because the way the blocking has set up and the + NAO. They felt it will being staying + for the duration of this month. Anyone have any thought's on this ? It doesn't sound to promising for us. I guess we'll have to wait and see if their right.

SNOW, all I now is what I see and this pattern is set right now.Boston area wins this winter.It takes a long time for these patterns to shift gears.Remember '95-'96 when the pattern was for us? One snowstorm after another with snowpack on the ground forever.It's just the breaks.Even with this Boston centered pattern, I have enjoyed over 40 inches of snow up here in the beautiful HV of NY and LI got their gift of that major snowstorm.Hey, some patterns bust us out completely like a few years ago so it could have been a lot worse this year.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:51 am

syosnow94 wrote:We just spent a week tracking and some of us hyping a complete NON EVENT.  Damn this sucks.

I'ts a tough one, Jim.There was a model a few days ago that showed the snow totals WAY up north and one with very low qpf here so there were some red flags with this event.This storm came frome west to east, not a favorable type for heavy snow here.It dumped the heavy stuff in a very tight band with extreme gradients.
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Post by Guest Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:00 am

@docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:We just spent a week tracking and some of us hyping a complete NON EVENT.  Damn this sucks.

I'ts a tough one, Jim.There was a model a few days ago that showed the snow totals WAY up north and one with very low qpf here so there were some red flags with this event.This storm came frome west to east, not a favorable type for heavy snow here.It dumped the heavy stuff in a very tight band with extreme gradients.

Sucks all around Doc. Doesn't make any sense because east of you near and south of Poughkeepsie they're at 6+ already and even areas in Southern Ct. are at 4+. Enen my parents North of you are at 7" already. It's almost like you're surrounded. Good news is Thursday looks like a high ratio 6 to 8" snow....for Boston. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:14 am

Jim, very tight gradient on this one.You're right, I'm only a few miles away but these tight gradient storms are very tough to predict.Love the area wide atom bomb snowstorms like Jan 1996 that are STATE wide storms.None of this tight gradient BS....
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Post by oldtimer Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:35 am

Doc The almost sure thing for me is that beautiful Nor'easter at the 40/70 BM Everything else is a crap shoot This year with all the cold air to work with we have been so close and then again so far from real big ones Just about every event this WAA thing is in there Very frustrating Sad

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 09, 2015 9:39 am

Bingo, oldtimer.A Miller A Nor'easter at the BM is the real McCoy around these parts.You'll know it when you see that radar.
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