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December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 20, 2014 2:05 pm

A potent storm is going to develop in the center of the country and cut into the Great Lakes. Out in front of the storm, there will be a southerly flow drawing up mild air with a secondary low pressure system developing near the coast. The secondary low is going to merge with the primary low north of the Great Lakes and an impressive sub 970 mb low is going to be stationed just south of the Hudson Bay in Canada on Christmas Day.

The main impacts for us will consist of rain and wind. The rain we get on Tuesday is not necessarily from the storm itself, rather from the southerly flow allowing for some Gulf moisture feed. Expect some light to moderate rain throughout the day on Tuesday.

The storm really gets going around mid to late morning on Wednesday. Here is 10am from 12z EURO

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f99

Light to moderate rain with the heaviest just to our west.

It will be overnight Wednesday, after Midnight, when the secondary low begins to develop and heavy rainfall persists over the area.

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

You can see the GFS-PARA is a little quicker in moving the rain out early Xmas Day

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

I think by the time we wake up on Xmas Day, the rain will have moved out for almost everyone. These systems usually have a knack for ending earlier than expected.

Total Rain (Tuesday-Thursday morning): 1.00-2.00 Inches

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm Ecmwf_uv10g_ne_22

The worst of the winds will come on the backside of the storm as it bombs out in Canada and winds shift to the northwest. Expect sustained winds on Xmas Day between 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph at times. They will die down by Friday.

In sum, worst of rain will be between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning (or overnight Wednesday). Worst of wind will be throughout the day on Christmas. There is some chance of snow flurries on Xmas Day. Maybe some mood flakes. Frankly, the storm is not a big deal. Ignore the media hype. But travel will be delayed at the airports due to the wind and rain.

I hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas and you get to spend it with the people you love most in your lives.

Frank


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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 20, 2014 6:33 pm

Thanks for the update Frank, yeah not a major terrible storm but for an area that is known for power outages with winds around 50mph gusts (such as mine, been a issue ever since I lived here) (and some models like todays Euro even showed gust slightly higher than that, it could suck for some here, to lose power on xmas day). I believe it would be sporadic not widespread but still had to put that out there at least here. Especially coming after one to two inches of rain to saturate the already saturated ground. All of you have a great xmas, wishing this was snow but hey hopefully the pattern change will come with this cutter. Frank hope your partying hard : )
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 20, 2014 6:38 pm

Last nights Euro was much rougher on the gusts, so theres still numbers to work out, but I think Frank has this nailed pretty good.

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm Xmas_w10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 20, 2014 6:53 pm

18z GFS has LP right over us with isobars sub 990-996mb for a 6 hr period maybe less, sustained winds get to 30-35mph in the highest area shown (rest of duration which is quite long 20-30mph dying down like frank said xmas day night or evening, but hey its the 18z, probably not gonna be like that, your wind man (get it wing man lol, i know corney) will keep you posted.

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm 18z_gf15
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 22, 2014 11:04 am

Update: 

It's amazing how we don't notice this because the end result is the same for us, wind and rain. This storm was once modeled to be a bombing low bringing blizzard conditions to the upper Midwest. Now little to no snowfall is expected anywhere in the Midwest from this storm because of the way the energy transfers from one low to another. 

Winter weather fanatics from the Midwest are extremely defeated. 

Anyway, 1-2 inches of rain is still expected but wind gusts won't reach 50 mph anymore. Most likely 30-35 mph

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Dec 22, 2014 1:28 pm

Frank you know I do not get these models, I am starting to lose faith in any model and its LR prediction, this thing is fizziling like crazy. And yeah per Euro your about right on the gusts, no biggie there. Just a rainout. So will this no longer change our pattern since its weakening? Any possibility the models have it wrong and it ends up being stronger? Inaccwx still forecasting gusts to 47mph on 25th, do not see that happening unless there is a change in increased intensity.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:11 pm

Glad to hear it if true. As originally hyped by so many outlets as Santa Bomb the weaker this goes the less Christmas Eve travel problems. I hope it's absorbed into a black hole between now and Christmas Eve.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 22, 2014 7:52 pm

Always glad to see a soaker rainstorm shrivel and weaken especially when loved ones and friends are traveling.Even as a snow nut, I only want an inch or two Christmas Eve or Christmas Day just to set the mood and not too much for traveling problems.Let the whiteouts blast us on Sunday-Sunday nights so people get a day off from work or school on Monday and a relaxing three day weekend for all!
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:03 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Always glad to see a soaker rainstorm shrivel and weaken especially when loved ones and friends are traveling.Even as a snow nut, I only want an inch or two Christmas Eve or Christmas Day just to set the mood and not too much for traveling problems.Let the whiteouts blast us on Sunday-Sunday nights so people get a day off from work or school on Monday and  a relaxing three day weekend for all!

Hey Doc how are you ? Sorry I haven't been on to much lately, but between work and issues with my late brothers (may he rest in peace) house having boiler issues. Which in the end we had to replace. I'm finally getting a break at my mom's for the next two weeks for the holidays. It's really GREAT that my company closes for the whole two weeks so I can spend time with mom for both Christmas and New Years. Anyway I couldn't agree with you more about it snowing on Sunday nights and having Monday off. But I prefer it to snow on Thursday nights into Friday. The reason being is that I have time to clean it up when it stops on Friday and still have two days to rest up before I go back to work.
I also have to say Cp's comments on the storm that's suppose to effect us on Christmas eve have actually made me laugh out loud. I really hate to say this being I'm a bona fide Snow Weenie, but I don't want it to snow until after New Years. The reason why is because I put a lot of decorations up for Christmas at my house and my mother's and I usually take them down at both locations between Xmas and New Years so everything is done before I go back to work on January 5th. If it snows it just makes it that much harder to accomplish. So there it is I said it. Please don't let it snow until after January 4th. OK I'm ready to take my lumps for saying no snow until January. Please don't be to rough on me all of you Snow Weenie's out there.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:07 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank you know I do not get these models, I am starting to lose faith in any model and its LR prediction, this thing is fizziling like crazy.  And yeah per Euro your about right on the gusts, no biggie there.  Just a rainout.  So will this no longer change our pattern since its weakening?  Any possibility the models have it wrong and it ends up being stronger?  Inaccwx still forecasting gusts to 47mph on 25th, do not see that happening unless there is a change in increased intensity.

Yea, this storm won't help our pattern anymore. It originally looked like it could have given us a -NAO. Not anymore. The pattern will still change though. 

@Snow- sorry to hear about your brother

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:15 pm

@SNOW MAN wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Always glad to see a soaker rainstorm shrivel and weaken especially when loved ones and friends are traveling.Even as a snow nut, I only want an inch or two Christmas Eve or Christmas Day just to set the mood and not too much for traveling problems.Let the whiteouts blast us on Sunday-Sunday nights so people get a day off from work or school on Monday and  a relaxing three day weekend for all!

Hey Doc how are you ? Sorry I haven't been on to much lately, but between work and issues with my late brothers (may he rest in peace) house having boiler issues. Which in the end we had to replace. I'm finally getting a break at my mom's for the next two weeks for the holidays. It's really GREAT that my company closes for the whole two weeks so I can spend time with mom for both Christmas and New Years. Anyway I couldn't agree with you more about it snowing on Sunday nights and having Monday off. But I prefer it to snow on Thursday nights into Friday. The reason being is that I have time to clean it up when it stops on Friday and still have two days to rest up before I go back to work.
I also have to say Cp's comments on the storm that's suppose to effect us on Christmas eve have actually made me laugh out loud. I really hate to say this being I'm a bona fide Snow Weenie, but I don't want it to snow until after New Years. The reason why is because I put a lot of decorations up for Christmas at my house and my mother's and I usually take them down at both locations between Xmas and New Years so everything is done before I go back to work on January 5th. If it snows it just makes it that much harder to accomplish. So there it is I said it. Please don't let it snow until after January 4th. OK I'm ready to take my lumps for saying no snow until January. Please don't be to rough on me all of you Snow Weenie's out there.

SNOW, great to hear from you and I'm hanging in there.Yeah, when boilers get so old and run down, it's better for the peace of mind to replace them.Hear you on the delay in snow to remove the decorations but don't let it get back to CP.He'll write you up on OTI. Have a great Christmas Pal.Holidays can be rough remembering our loved ones missing but they would want us to go on and live our lives to the fullest.

This Christmas rainstorm is a bummer but there will be plenty more Christmases to come as the years go by and some will be white.
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:41 pm

Your right Doc about remembering loved ones this time of year is hard, but it's especially hard for my mom. You know the old saying, your not suppose to bury your children. Their suppose to bury you.
 I just want to wish everyone on this forum a very Merry Christmas and I hope all of you have a happy, healthy and prosperous new year.
Frank, thank you and Congratulations on graduating from college. I know your going to be a GREAT asset to the Mars company. I wish you all the best in your new career there. Who knows maybe I'll see you on Rt. 80 going to or coming from work one day. GOOD LUCK !
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 23, 2014 12:58 am

@docstox12 wrote:Always glad to see a soaker rainstorm shrivel and weaken especially when loved ones and friends are traveling.Even as a snow nut, I only want an inch or two Christmas Eve or Christmas Day just to set the mood and not too much for traveling problems.Let the whiteouts blast us on Sunday-Sunday nights so people get a day off from work or school on Monday and  a relaxing three day weekend for all!

Not my job. We run 24/7 nothing shuts us down. I'm with you on low accumulation on Christmas Eve. It happened to me 2 years in a row, but this won't be a 3rd.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:39 am

Two years in a row in these parts is really good. Three in a row, pretty dim chances.
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:05 am

@docstox12 wrote:Two years in a row in these parts is really good. Three in a row, pretty dim chances.

Not to mention a few days after my birthday last year, a few days after the 10th I believe, we got hit with a decent storm. I had like 6-7 inches of snow. I remember trying to go out for my birthday but condition were horrible. After the snow was ice.
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:11 am

Random fact: "Jingle bells" also know as "one horse open sleigh", is actually a song that was written for Thanksgiving not Christmas. Times have changed LOL.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:45 am

@HectorO wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Two years in a row in these parts is really good. Three in a row, pretty dim chances.

Not to mention a few days after my birthday last year, a few days after the 10th I believe, we got hit with a decent storm. I had like 6-7 inches of snow. I remember trying to go out for my birthday but condition were horrible. After the snow was ice.

CP's December Indicator worked like a charm last year with that 6-7 inch snowfall in December.Not looking too good for that indicator unless there is snow in the next week and a half.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:15 am

that may happen doc, look at srocs post on possible overrunning event. Nothing to get too excited about yet or sad for that fact but just to watch. I imagine after Thursday things will become clearer. I just hope anything that comes holds off until the 29th as I have to drive from central CT back here from my family on Sunday.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:26 am

Most local forecasts are still showing winds gusting over 40mph at times for Thursday for my area. I would watch this event for some reason IMO it may overperform in terms of rain and wind, however not that this is a good thing just putting the notice of my opinion out there. Models do show a general weakening in the winds but its still possible they are near or at advisory criteria if the pressure gradiant is strong enough.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:29 am

Temps Xmas morning will be in the low 60's

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm Ecmwf_t2max_ma_11

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 10:41 am

oh that's such a holiday feel not
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Dec 23, 2014 12:18 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:oh that's such a holiday feel not

florida xmas lol
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 23, 2014 1:33 pm

Deep tropical connection setting up for tomorrow
December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm 10847010
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 3:11 pm

Going to be a soaking windswept rain especially late evening and over night. Hopefully the winds are not so strong to cause power outages but in my area it doesn't take much to do so, lot of loosly rooted trees and dead branches, they do a terrible job of pruning if they ever do it.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:04 pm

What is it with Upton and the area that is devoid of even a HWO, when we know heavy rain and winds are coming? LOL I mean they know its coming its not like everything is going to the east west north and south of the area.

December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm Nws_ma10
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