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December 23rd-25th Rain & Wind Storm

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HectorO
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:10 pm

This on Christmas eve, nutty!

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING AS WELL...WHICH MAY
CULMINATE IN A FINE LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD
FRONT/SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICTING HIGHER THREAT MAY
BE ACROSS LI AND SE CT WITH STRONGER LLJ AND INSTABILITY. BIGGEST
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION MIXING DOWN A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF THE
50-60 KT 950MB LLJ.
THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT DOES PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO
IMPACTS...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE WED/WED
EVE IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH 950 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO
60 KT WED NIGHT...LIMITED MIXING SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS COAST AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH ISOLATED 40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THU MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WITH DEEP MIXING AND MORE FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE. THE THREAT FOR WIND ADVISORY GUSTS IS LOW.

RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
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Post by HectorO Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:that may happen doc, look at srocs post on possible overrunning event.  Nothing to get too excited about yet or sad for that fact but just to watch.  I imagine after Thursday things will become clearer.  I just hope anything that comes holds off until the 29th as I have to drive from central CT back here from my family on Sunday.

IMO, we're just looking at a snow shower for that event. I seriously don't think anything big to look at. However, after the pacific northwest weather we've been having I'm sure seeing a few flurries will be much welcomed.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:23 pm

Hector look at the 28-29th thread, I posted NWS update they saying snow is possible, IMO it will be more than flurries. But its thread the needle. And that should be discussed over there I apologize for mentioning it here.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:57 pm

Jeeze look at whats coming from the south wow. Thats some pretty hefty stuff, tomorrow through thursday morning not gonna be fun. Merry xmas eve eve anyways : )
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 23, 2014 8:01 pm

TZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>071-242145-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
431 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AND THEN CROSS EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A RESULTANT LOW POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT ALSO PRESENTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 7:00 am

NWS upton:

Bizarre for xmas eve:

HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXING
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITH STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
IF A FINE CONVECTIVE LINE FORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
IF/WHEN WARRANTED.

Trending stronger with winds for tomorrow:

CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY W WINDS TO 30-40 MPH...HIGHEST OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW APPEARS SHOULD
BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IF
THIS TREND HOLDS...THEN A WIND ADVISORY COULD ULTIMATELY END UP
BEING NEEDED.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:50 am

Accuwx has greatly increased wind gusts and its already pretty windy here. They have ranging from lulls of 35-40 to as high as 60mph late today and again overnight, I guess they assume that mixing down will happen. We will see what happens everyone stay safe.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:05 am

I find it odd that Upton area still has no flood watch but all surrounding areas do, and that its still a HWO and they mention the possible need for wind advisories. That's Upton for ya lol, wait till the last minute.
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Post by Quietace Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:26 pm

Heavy Rain all morning. Winds light and variable

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:55 pm

Lovely day

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Post by Quietace Wed Dec 24, 2014 2:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Lovely day
Could be worse.

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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:09 pm

Temp has spiked from 44 this morning with a NNE wind to now 56 with a SSE wind. Just the opposite of festive lol.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:55 pm

Does the real punch for this storm come over night or are winds not an issue
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:00 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Does the real punch for this storm come over night or are winds not an issue

Winds will be strongest beginning around midnight through early tmw morning, then remaining breezy throughout the day with falling temps. Also, another batch of rain will pass through during the pre-dawn hours.
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 24, 2014 7:26 pm

First reality. 57 degrees rain. On and off occasionally heavy rain no wind!! REALLY SERIOUS SITUATION BAD STORM. {sarcasm) so I don't get yelled at. Sucks. What's the big deal? Thank God we're not Chicago where 24 hours ago they were forecast to get 4 to 6 inches and a White Christmas and in reality maybe 1 inch and mid 30's.

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