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December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:39 am

The threat is not dead, but the differences from model run to model run gives me agita

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:44 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:The threat is not dead, but the differences from model run to model run gives me agita

Thats just the truth Frank. The Gods honest truth. Do I believe that surprise snow WILL actually pan out...not really. But with the chaos theory in full effect with these dang models, and with the energy from the STJ in poor sampling area over the subtropics S and W of Mexico, and with current satellite observations showing a healthy batch of STJ convection firing up and beginning to lift towards Mexico and the GOM I am going to continue to post about it until I feel 100% confident it is no longer a threat. (deep sigh)

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 26, 2014 11:07 am

12 para shows snow showers for our area on 29th, a little heavier in SNJ but do not think it would stick.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 26, 2014 11:38 am

12z Cmc

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f84

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 26, 2014 11:40 am

Looks like 1-2 inches

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 26, 2014 4:55 pm

It's been the main story the last month or so, but the 12Z EURO ensembles from today really backed off on the snow for NYC next week that the 0Z EURO ensembles had and with this pattern who knows if we will get any good snowstorms this winter. I know it's late December but I'm still waiting. The day before the storm Thanksgiving week I purchased winter boots thinking I would need them a lot this winter. They have yet to come out of the box...

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:48 pm

So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Dec 26, 2014 6:42 pm

Hug a real model not a weather model,and Frank, get rid of those annoying birds. Just throwing that out there fwiw.

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Post by Grselig Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me


I still did not fix mine. Somebody is responsible. Someone will pay.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:So some members purchased a snow blower, Mike purchased boots, Janet got her new weather station...who is to blame for this junx? Certainly not little ol' me

Oh Im sure its me...
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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:17 am

Looks like the models are starting to improve on the 2nd wave. Nice to see.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:22 am

@Snow88 wrote:Looks like the models are starting to improve on the 2nd wave. Nice to see.


The 00z para and ggem were both flurries with a warm surface. There's still major improvement needed if you're looking for meaningful snow.

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December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Empty test for storm

Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:27 am

0z Ukie for the 2nd wave
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Syqlab

Not bad at all
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:55 am

GEFS look interesting

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Post-40-0-24330500-1419657995

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Post-40-0-85280400-1419658000

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Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:08 am

Euro has nothing
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 27, 2014 1:21 am

There is a reason why the models are showing different solutions to the 29th storm (2nd wave). It all comes down to how they handle the H5 energy. Notice how on the GFS, EURO, and CMC the energy is modeled differently in terms of location, intensity, and angle. The model that has the best handle or understanding of the general pattern will be the one to come out on top. The CMC is quite amazing in the sense of how everything looks sharper and the energy is angled from SW to NE.

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Post-40-0-70510600-1419660864

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 27, 2014 7:13 am

Just one thing to note.  Euro shows us nothing for the 29th-30th because it has the flattest soln which shears out the STJ energy and prevents any moisture from reaching far enough north to make a difference; however I would just like to point out a few observations.  
Here is the current water vapor (WV) image and loop showing the actual current conditions as of 7am this morning.  Take notice of a few things.  1) there is a deep tropical moisture connection (yellow arrows)  2) pay particular attention to the trough in the west.  The trough def appears deeper and further off the SW coast/Baha; it also appears a tad sharper sharper, and the trough axis is slight less positive and def further west than where last nights 00z Euro has for this same time frame.
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 <a href=December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Wv122710" />
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Wv-animated

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 <a href=December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Ecmwf_22" />

Now I am not saying that this will have large impacts on our area for better or worse yet, but I am saying if the Euro is off with its forecast at hr 6 when compared to actual observations then its error only increases at its run continues.  With other model guidance still bringing the precip closer to our area it leaves a small window for change over the next 24-48hrs potentially for the better.  That is all carry on.

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:46 am

That makes sense sroc, lets see what happens not much time left something best change todays 12z or by latest tomorrows 12z. Otherwise I think we are probably locked in on a non-situation. I feel that way now but what u say makes total sense. How the models can be off only 6 hrs before the actual time show something different makes me wonder why these models cannot be better. I mean we almost have a cure for some serious diseases, and we can't even get a computer model to give us a accurate forcast 6 hours ahead.
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Post by Quietace Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:58 am

12z NAM is a solid 1-3 CNJ South
This is not a bad look. Surface temps are solid too(30-32).
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Nam_pr10
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Nam_pr11

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 27, 2014 10:58 am

12z para caved to euro 

Nothing

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 27, 2014 11:12 am

Now lets see if the Euro caves to the Para. The way these models behave it wouldnt surprise me at all

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:02 pm

And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:25 pm

@sroc4 wrote:And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

Nada -what a frickin shame too warm

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

then to our south

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f51

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:31 pm

@amugs wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:And now with the CMC in.......(deep breath in through the nose and.....sigh)

Nada -what a frickin shame too warm

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

Yeah Mugs the 28th is when the front moves through. I never really expected anything but the liquid precip during this time frame.  And it be light at that.  But once the cold air moves through a second wave of energy was supposed to come up along the stalled front, but is unfort being surppressed by the cold arctic HP building in.  So it looks like the 28th is too warm, and the 29th-30th is too cold (suppression depression)  We need the baby bear...jjjjjust right.  Unfort baby bear is grounded and cant come out and play.  Look at the 12z NAM.  Its still close, but unfort prob no cigar.  
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 5 Namconus_ref_frzn_eus_27


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 27, 2014 12:31 pm

If Euro shows nothing like I bet it does, closing this thread.

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