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December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event

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Grselig
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 12:41 pm

Dayumm, snow map is a weenies dream on CMC, too bad as Frank has said its a stinky model, hoping its right this time.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:22 pm

12z model update for 28th-29th

GFS - light rain 
Cmc - rain to heavy snow 
Euro - nothing

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 1:28 pm

Wow Euro really skunked out. I am not worried until this storm passes I think we won't have any good support as stated before. But oh I hope so bad that the cmc comes through for once.
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Post by aiannone Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:26 pm

12z CMC reminds me exactly of the Post-Super Bowl event we had last February. FROPA followed by a wave of LP passing to the south and Bam a decent snow event. I remember picking up 10" from that storm. It was also a last minute event. Most models had it passing to far S and then the night before, the 0z NAM caught on and said, NOPE, it's coming north lol!
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 6:00 pm

18z GFS para comes in with 3-6 from 29th and another storm moving in around the 1-2nd looks bigger.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 6:07 pm

Oh its beautiful, CMC and 18z para GFS now have similar solution. Just for fun and to show comparison to 12z cmc. To give some hope to us all sitting in the rain right now.

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 3 18z_gf16
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Post by Guest Wed Dec 24, 2014 7:12 pm

Just got home. Failed miserably as Santa. NWS forecast changed again for Sun thru Tuesday. Now even warmer with showers Sunday then 40's Mon thru Tues with 0% chance of precip. WTF???

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 24, 2014 7:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh its beautiful, CMC and 18z para GFS now have similar solution. Just for fun and to show comparison to 12z cmc.  To give some hope to us all sitting in the rain right now.

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 3 18z_gf16

Yes it's pretty but 8 days out? I haven't seen any snow events close to verifying 6-10 days out in a long long time. I guess eventually one has to. Even the broken clock saying applys here.

Merry Christmas everyone. This time of year I can't even let several failed stratospheric warming events dampen my spirits.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 24, 2014 8:53 pm

Well the first sooner event is about 3-6. syo, that forecast goes by the old GFS, so take it with a grain of salt, read their discussion for a better idea of what they think.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:04 pm

I won't be updating until tomorrow. Enjoy your evenings

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Post by Guest Wed Dec 24, 2014 9:10 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well the first sooner event is about 3-6. syo, that forecast goes by the old GFS, so take it with a grain of salt, read their discussion for a better idea of what they think.

I read the discussion. It made no specific reference to a storm Mon thru Wed. Maybe the forecaster took a Christmas Eve Break!!

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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:09 am

0z GGEM still showing a snowstorm for Monday
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:24 am

00z Model Runs Update:

GFS - light snow, 1-3 inches
GGEM - moderate snow, 4-8 inches
EURO - No measurable precip.

This all comes down to how much energy ends up coming up the coast. Some models, such as the EURO, shear out all the energy and there is hardly a storm to even speak of. The GGEM has potent pieces of H5 energy moving northeast out of the Gulf and it forms a decent storm. The time frame is no longer the 28th...more of a 29th type of event.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:32 am

It is hard to say which model has the best grasp on this storm. The ensembles are in agreement with the GFS and GGEM OP's of at least some decent precipitation of getting into the area. Euro could very well be struggling with this, but I figured by this juncture it would catch on by now. Would not shock me to see both GFS/GGEM lose this threat and we end up with either light rain or dry conditions.

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:It is hard to say which model has the best grasp on this storm. The ensembles are in agreement with the GFS and GGEM OP's of at least some decent precipitation of getting into the area. Euro could very well be struggling with this, but I figured by this juncture it would catch on by now. Would not shock me to see both GFS/GGEM lose this threat and we end up with either light rain or dry conditions.

Getting really depressing weather wise. Unbelievable how we can't get a single cold storm or pattern change to verify the way they've been predicted to. Just keep on moving down the line. 2 more months of this we'll all be drooling in a looney bin.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 10:38 am

Syo first merry xmas and yes I myself am starting to lose my hope cp may be right 7.8 inch year total.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:10 am

Para gfs says Merry Xmas. Snowstorm 

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 3 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:12 am

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 3 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:20 am

Stormvista snow maps shows 2-4/3-3-6 inches 

Let's see if euro comes around today

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:38 am

Yeah frank wxbell shows 3-6 for area, take it in a heartbeat. A few localized areas of up to 8 or 9 N/W. This made me smile a little, not getting too hopeful though.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:41 am

This did not become obvious to me until now, but there's actually 2 waves in the 28th-30th time frame. I may have been paying attention to the wrong one. ALL the models are a miss for the 1st wave on the 28th. That then becomes a stalled off boundary off the coast. Meanwhile, to the west there is upper level energy streaming in and phasing into the stalled off boundary. This develop a coastal storm and enhanced precip along the baroclinic zone. This is what the GGEM and GFS are showing, and the EURO too but it's off the coast. 

I have renewed interest now for the 29th-30th. I was focusing on the wrong piece of energy. This still has potential.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:43 am

Holy crap I think the 12z Cmc is about to show a 4-8/6-10 inch storm. It looks really good.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:44 am

I noticed that a few days ago, I think I even asked if they were two seperate storms or were they just coming at different days on the model runs. I am glad to hear your interested, if frank is interested we all should be.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:47 am

Wait Frank weren't you the one told me that cmc is a crappy model lol, but now you get excited, hey i guess we gotta take what we can with the models right : )
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:47 am

A little warm, but ggem has a warm bias. With a PV to the north, I would bet on more white than wet 

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