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December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:48 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Wait Frank weren't you the one told me that cmc is a crappy model lol, but now you get excited, hey i guess we gotta take what we can with the models right : )

If it was alone I woukd be less enthused. But the gfs and it's ensembles agree

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:49 am

Okay cool, your talking about para gfs right? thats what I was looking at I do not even look at old GFS anymore, too much difference.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 25, 2014 12:45 pm

12z CMC still showing a SECS
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 10856610

12z GFS Para shows a lighter event
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 10873010
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 10869810
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:20 pm

12z Euro is still south but wetter and better organized than last night's 0z run....

0z Euro
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Ecmwf_10

12z Euro
December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Ecmwf_11
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:25 pm

Well hopefully it trends north plenty of time till 5 days out.
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Post by algae888 Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:58 pm

merry Christmas everyone. today's models look better than last night. we have cmc para gfs and navgem all on board. euro is closer and with it's bias of holding energy back in the sw it's not far from showing a cmc solution. also cmc is the only consistent model right now showing nice snows for 3-4 straight runs while other models keep waffling. hope to have euro come on board soon. tonight and tom 12z are big. every one enjoy your xmas. we have lasagna ham oven stuffer and all those delicious Italian meats in the gravy. can't wait till it's done.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 2:33 pm

Euro trended toward other models. I bet it shows a hit tonight or tomorrow 12z

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Post by Grselig Thu Dec 25, 2014 2:56 pm

yeah, so now it seems like I should fix the sheer bolt on the snowblower. Just terrified of any butterfly effect I might create. Thanks for the update. A drop of hope is always nice.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Dec 25, 2014 3:30 pm

@Grselig wrote:yeah, so now it seems like I should fix the sheer bolt on the snowblower.  Just terrified of any butterfly effect I might create.  Thanks for the update.  A drop of hope is always nice.
I know what you mean. The way this winter has gone thus far, a mere fart might screw things up!
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 25, 2014 4:21 pm

So I guess we can't give up yet even though Nws and WPC already did haha.
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 25, 2014 6:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Euro trended toward other models. I bet it shows a hit tonight or tomorrow 12z

Had a great Christmas day with the family. Now I come home to all this renewed interest. AWESOME. FIRE ME UP FRANK!! Just tell me 3 to 6 and you'll here me scream hell yeah all the way from LI!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 25, 2014 6:31 pm

Over 100 hours im not getting involved, just dont want to deal with looking at storms in the LR before they are even closer getting disappointed by another nothing storm. If it gets into the short range and still there then il look at it.
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Dec 25, 2014 6:51 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Over 100 hours im not getting involved, just dont want to deal with looking at storms in the LR before they are even closer getting disappointed by another nothing storm. If it gets into the short range and still there then il look at it.

Same here Tom, too many disappointments.... although I am looking to go into the city then to see the tree.....

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 25, 2014 10:02 pm

Agreed Tom and Janet. I'll follow and I love all the updates and changes everyone keeps us up to date on but not buying any of it till three days in with general model agreement.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:14 pm

00z GFS brought back wave #1 on the 28th. It is mainly rain possibly ending as snow. Wave #2, the one I have been watching, is all snow.

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f111

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 GFS-PARA_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f114

It is further off the coast though and precip looks very light

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:25 pm

Yeah but its a lot less than last few runs for past day or two on para.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:27 pm

Yea did not look so great...curious to see GGEM and EURO

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:32 pm

Looks terrible, another disappointment coming... I can feel it
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:35 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Looks terrible, another disappointment coming... I can feel it

Uhg.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 25, 2014 11:41 pm

00z GGEM is east and warmer

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

The fact both models trended east is a step toward the EURO. Not good.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Dec 26, 2014 12:00 am

Sigh. I'm tired of this.
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Dec 26, 2014 2:15 am

KEEP THE FAITH EVERYONE!

Winter only began 4 days ago. ;-) We will get our MECS soon...
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 26, 2014 5:36 am

6z para gfs gives us a 1-3" event for Monday and some light snow for tues. looks like south does better. areas near philly get about 4-5"...

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13


December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Gfsp_asnow_us_23
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Post by Guest Fri Dec 26, 2014 6:49 am

Here we go again. See Ya!!

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 26, 2014 9:24 am

Say what you want about this event but we are going to watch still.  Esp for a few inches.  If and only If the energy coming out of the STJ is more robust than modeled.  There is a very robust moisture fetch setting up S and west of Mexico being drawn up by the trough that is digging in the western conus right now. This is the energy that will lead to this potential.  Look at the last few frames and you will see it getting organized and drawn up where it will cross mexico into the GOM. Odds are the majority of this passes to the south, but dont sleep on it just yet.  
I cant get the loop to work in the post so here is the link to the loop.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.html

December 29th-30th Potential Overrunning event - Page 4 Satw_12

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