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Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9

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Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 Empty Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:37 am

The story this week will not be the minor snow we see on Tuesday. It will be the cold that is expected to take a track straight from the Arctic Circle into our area Tuesday night. It comes together thanks to a ridge spike in the western U.S. helping to bring down a strong piece of energy sourced from the Arctic and rotating around the PV into our area Thursday morning. Do not be surprised to see some snow showers late Wednesday or Thursday that develop near the coast. Check out the Arctic High's and their intensities over the eastern CONUS later this week:

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 Gfs_mslp_uv850_conus2_18

A 1047mb High to our west and a 1030mb High to our northwest is impressive. The friction caused by their pressure gradients will allow winds to increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Probably looking at wind speeds between 15-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times. This is important because of the wind chills we are expected to get Thursday morning (shown below).

Temperatures being advertised Thursday morning from the new GFS show single digits with wind chill values between -10F and -20F, lower in some locations further north.

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_18

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 Gfs_windchill_nyc_18

In regards to the Tuesday clipper, it should start between 8am-9am and come to an end late afternoon. Accumulations will vary from a coatings to 1 inch or 2. Will depend on where the heaviest squalls develop, likely north of NYC. Not a big deal, but at least it will whiten the grounds prior to the arctic blast moving in.

Use this thread as observation for Tuesday AND the cold this week. I have a feeling records will be broken.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:12 am

Wow look at that HP, strong flow from the NNW, first real cold of the season besides impressive Nov cold.
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Post by amugs Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:56 am

Cold is going to rival last years cold at this time if I recall correctly and it was after the 1-3 storm. Impressive indeed.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:12 am

Well, it gets us back into a winter feel again anyway, with some light snow and brutal cold.That's what January is about.

As far as a mid Jan possible warmup? Well, even in brutal winters there is always a "January Thaw" and this does not surprise me at all.Hopefully with all that great cold air in place, something will brew up.Anyway, more encouraging than Dec to say the least.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:40 am

That is nuts, -20 degrees! Are we in Antartica?
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:04 pm

HEY FRANK
The clipper system forecast to bring us some light snow Tuesday keeps getting more and more impressive. The NWS now has Iowa through parts of Ohio in the 4 to 8 range. (.40 qpf at 15 to 20-1 ratios.) I know these things sometimes fall apart over the appalacians but the track looks perfect as we will be on the north side of the low. My question is what are the chances this thing holds together and overperforms bringing us a 2 to 4 inch event. We'll be 27 for a high here on LI with qpf. forecast of about .22. At 15-1 ratios we'd get 3 inches no?

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:30 pm

IMO Syosnow it's poss but not likely. If you examine the vorticity maps the energy looks all sheared out by the time it reaches the coast. There is no doubt ratios will be high but I'm not sure there will be much of a mechanism in the atmosphere to enhance Precip. I think 0.22" of QPF is a bit generous but if that much moves through 2-4 is possible but again doubtful IMO.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:06 pm

Apps always tear these things apart, dont hold your breath for anything besides some snoe showers making it over.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:07 pm

nws storm totals...
Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 StormTotalSnowFcst

if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:12 pm

@algae888 wrote:nws storm totals...
Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 StormTotalSnowFcst

if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.

What?
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:51 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@algae888 wrote:nws storm totals...
Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 StormTotalSnowFcst

if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.

What?

nws disco....
AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (AROUND ZERO
WELL INLAND) WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON THU. IF THERE
IS ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM TUESDAYS EVENT...A FEW MORE DEGREES
MAY NEED TO BE KNOCKED OFF CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:55 pm

Oh as in lower, I thought you meant higher and was confused.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:14 pm

1-2 inches is a pretty good call. 0.5-1.5 inches is probably a better call.

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Post by HectorO Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:47 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Well, it gets us back into a winter feel again anyway, with some light snow and brutal cold.That's what January is about.

As far as a mid Jan possible warmup? Well, even in brutal winters there is always a "January Thaw" and this does not surprise me at all.Hopefully with all that great cold air in place, something will brew up.Anyway, more encouraging than Dec to say the least.

lol, The thaw won't feel much different from what a lot of winter has been so far, so I guess at this point it's not too bad.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 04, 2015 9:21 pm

I see the NWS has a more detailed snow map. Smaller total segments, was hoping they would do this.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:08 pm

Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:17 pm

Looks like a general coating to an inch
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Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:33 am

I work in Yorktown Heights, Westchester County, and I go over the Bear Mountain. Unfortunately I have seen at least a few times where even a dusting from a snow squall hits for 15 minutes but with hard winds and single digit temps, that dust freezes slick like a sheet of ice in just minutes. The traveling is unbelievably dangerous especially over the goat trail on the side of the mountain and the Long Mountain going to Woodbury. It can be bracing stuff. Here's hoping we get a few inches that we can at least drive on.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 05, 2015 7:41 am

Know those roads very well.I think it's Route 6 going from Monroe towards the PIP and Bear Mtn Bridge and then towards Cold Spring or Westchester.Narrow, steep, twisting and turning.They are tough even under perfect conditions and there is no way I would be on them with any snow at all.

Hope it works out for you OK tomorrow.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:56 am

NWS disco is concerning for Wednight-Thurs:

THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER SEASON. WITH HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S...EXPECT
READINGS TO PLUMMET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHEN
FACTORING IN THE WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE IT IS WELL BELOW ZERO.
IN FACT...THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...RESULTING IN PARTS OF THE AREA REACHING WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -15 DEGREES. IT IS TOO SOON FOR ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 05, 2015 9:30 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.

Even though top end it was only going to be 2 inches it is kind of a kick in the teeth yet again that the snow for tomorrow is being suppressed again!!!!!!!!!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:05 am

I hear ya, syo, we may get another chance thurs into Friday from what I hear.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:51 am

syosnow94 wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.

Even though top end it was only going to be 2 inches it is kind of a kick in the teeth yet again that the snow for tomorrow is being suppressed again!!!!!!!!!

Patience grasshoppa. This is more a pat on the back vs a kick in the teeth. We will get our hug soon enough. Keep this in mind too. Dont be fooled as the precip shield approaches Eastern PA and Western NJ. It will prob look nice a robust, making us think that it will over perform, but the combination of Virga from the cold dry conditions, and the shearing effect of the energy that the Apps will do it will more than likely rapidly break apart as it approaches the coast line. Obv will have to watch to see if enhanced forcing mech are present but just saying

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:34 am

I think ill see about a inch. Maybe areas around cape may / Vineland area see close to 1.5. NYC may end up being left with just light flakes if trends continue.Ratios seem to be around 15:1. But you can only do so much with close to .1 QPF and much less further north.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:10 pm

Coating to .5" up here in NNJ if we can get it - a coating will be nice but clippers as stated get shredded over the Apps and if there is nothing to propagate the moisture then we are left with flakes

Here is the UKIE. GGEM shows nothing for any of us.

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 Kojpp8w

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