Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9

The story this week will not be the minor snow we see on Tuesday. It will be the cold that is expected to take a track straight from the Arctic Circle into our area Tuesday night. It comes together thanks to a ridge spike in the western U.S. helping to bring down a strong piece of energy sourced from the Arctic and rotating around the PV into our area Thursday morning. Do not be surprised to see some snow showers late Wednesday or Thursday that develop near the coast. Check out the Arctic High's and their intensities over the eastern CONUS later this week:



A 1047mb High to our west and a 1030mb High to our northwest is impressive. The friction caused by their pressure gradients will allow winds to increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Probably looking at wind speeds between 15-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times. This is important because of the wind chills we are expected to get Thursday morning (shown below).

Temperatures being advertised Thursday morning from the new GFS show single digits with wind chill values between -10F and -20F, lower in some locations further north.





In regards to the Tuesday clipper, it should start between 8am-9am and come to an end late afternoon. Accumulations will vary from a coatings to 1 inch or 2. Will depend on where the heaviest squalls develop, likely north of NYC. Not a big deal, but at least it will whiten the grounds prior to the arctic blast moving in.

Use this thread as observation for Tuesday AND the cold this week. I have a feeling records will be broken.

Wow look at that HP, strong flow from the NNW, first real cold of the season besides impressive Nov cold.

Cold is going to rival last years cold at this time if I recall correctly and it was after the 1-3 storm. Impressive indeed.

Well, it gets us back into a winter feel again anyway, with some light snow and brutal cold.That's what January is about.

As far as a mid Jan possible warmup? Well, even in brutal winters there is always a "January Thaw" and this does not surprise me at all.Hopefully with all that great cold air in place, something will brew up.Anyway, more encouraging than Dec to say the least.

That is nuts, -20 degrees! Are we in Antartica?

HEY FRANK
The clipper system forecast to bring us some light snow Tuesday keeps getting more and more impressive. The NWS now has Iowa through parts of Ohio in the 4 to 8 range. (.40 qpf at 15 to 20-1 ratios.) I know these things sometimes fall apart over the appalacians but the track looks perfect as we will be on the north side of the low. My question is what are the chances this thing holds together and overperforms bringing us a 2 to 4 inch event. We'll be 27 for a high here on LI with qpf. forecast of about .22. At 15-1 ratios we'd get 3 inches no?

IMO Syosnow it's poss but not likely. If you examine the vorticity maps the energy looks all sheared out by the time it reaches the coast. There is no doubt ratios will be high but I'm not sure there will be much of a mechanism in the atmosphere to enhance Precip. I think 0.22" of QPF is a bit generous but if that much moves through 2-4 is possible but again doubtful IMO.

Apps always tear these things apart, dont hold your breath for anything besides some snoe showers making it over.

nws storm totals...


if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.

algae888 wrote:nws storm totals...


if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.

What?

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

algae888 wrote:nws storm totals...


if we can get 2" of fresh snow with clipper you can knock off about 5* from forecast highs and lows this week.

What?

nws disco....
AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (AROUND ZERO
WELL INLAND) WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON THU. IF THERE
IS ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM TUESDAYS EVENT...A FEW MORE DEGREES
MAY NEED TO BE KNOCKED OFF CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS.

Oh as in lower, I thought you meant higher and was confused.

1-2 inches is a pretty good call. 0.5-1.5 inches is probably a better call.

docstox12 wrote:Well, it gets us back into a winter feel again anyway, with some light snow and brutal cold.That's what January is about.

As far as a mid Jan possible warmup? Well, even in brutal winters there is always a "January Thaw" and this does not surprise me at all.Hopefully with all that great cold air in place, something will brew up.Anyway, more encouraging than Dec to say the least.

lol, The thaw won't feel much different from what a lot of winter has been so far, so I guess at this point it's not too bad.

I see the NWS has a more detailed snow map. Smaller total segments, was hoping they would do this.

Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.

Looks like a general coating to an inch

Know those roads very well.I think it's Route 6 going from Monroe towards the PIP and Bear Mtn Bridge and then towards Cold Spring or Westchester.Narrow, steep, twisting and turning.They are tough even under perfect conditions and there is no way I would be on them with any snow at all.

Hope it works out for you OK tomorrow.

NWS disco is concerning for Wednight-Thurs:

THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER SEASON. WITH HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S...EXPECT
READINGS TO PLUMMET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHEN
FACTORING IN THE WIND...IT WILL FEEL LIKE IT IS WELL BELOW ZERO.
IN FACT...THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...RESULTING IN PARTS OF THE AREA REACHING WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -15 DEGREES. IT IS TOO SOON FOR ANY
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.

Even though top end it was only going to be 2 inches it is kind of a kick in the teeth yet again that the snow for tomorrow is being suppressed again!!!!!!!!!

I hear ya, syo, we may get another chance thurs into Friday from what I hear.

syosnow94 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Mt. Holly was calling for around 2" here last time I checked a couple hrs ago, IMO too high.

Even though top end it was only going to be 2 inches it is kind of a kick in the teeth yet again that the snow for tomorrow is being suppressed again!!!!!!!!!

Patience grasshoppa. This is more a pat on the back vs a kick in the teeth. We will get our hug soon enough. Keep this in mind too. Dont be fooled as the precip shield approaches Eastern PA and Western NJ. It will prob look nice a robust, making us think that it will over perform, but the combination of Virga from the cold dry conditions, and the shearing effect of the energy that the Apps will do it will more than likely rapidly break apart as it approaches the coast line. Obv will have to watch to see if enhanced forcing mech are present but just saying

I think ill see about a inch. Maybe areas around cape may / Vineland area see close to 1.5. NYC may end up being left with just light flakes if trends continue.Ratios seem to be around 15:1. But you can only do so much with close to .1 QPF and much less further north.

Coating to .5" up here in NNJ if we can get it - a coating will be nice but clippers as stated get shredded over the Apps and if there is nothing to propagate the moisture then we are left with flakes

Here is the UKIE. GGEM shows nothing for any of us.



Ace and Tom Squared (NJweather and Isotherm) Jackpot -