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Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9

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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:34 am

I think ill see about a inch. Maybe areas around cape may / Vineland area see close to 1.5. NYC may end up being left with just light flakes if trends continue.Ratios seem to be around 15:1. But you can only do so much with close to .1 QPF and much less further north.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:10 pm

Coating to .5" up here in NNJ if we can get it - a coating will be nice but clippers as stated get shredded over the Apps and if there is nothing to propagate the moisture then we are left with flakes

Here is the UKIE. GGEM shows nothing for any of us.

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Kojpp8w

Ace and Tom Squared (NJweather and Isotherm) Jackpot - Surprised Rolling Eyes

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:59 pm

GFS shows lows in the negatives on the 17th and Im not talking wind chill, actual temps below 0 around 95, near 0 just SE, well below NW, at least were getting into a cold pattern, pond by my house should finally freeze
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Post by Quietace Mon Jan 05, 2015 4:11 pm

WWA posted for southern areas
Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Phi10
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:14 pm

This has always remained a 0.5-1.5 inch threat for most with southern areas possibly getting 2+ 

As far as the winds are concerned for Wednesday night, it's not their intensity but rather the wind chills of sub -10 degrees. Everyone should be prepared NOT to be outside for an extended period of time Thursday morning.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:21 pm

Guess I will try to cancel my trip to manhattan 9am on Thursday to see my client via train, no way!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:21 pm

NWS has our area and NYC back in the 1-2 inch area. I dunno Frank winds look like they could gust to 35-45mph, NWS even calling for gusts I nthat range in their text forecast (I know it based on GFS). But Euro shows strong winds too. Its gonna be brutal.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:24 pm

I don't envision 35 mph winds to be that bad. Plus they won't be sustained. The winds chills will suck though

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:27 pm

This is interesting, new isn't it?

POTENTIAL FOR A SCT-BKN BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS TO MOVE
NW TO SE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE WED AFT/EVE DUE TO COMBINATION OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FORCING...AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS IT COULD COINCIDE WITH EVENING RUSH. A BURST OF WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH LIKELY WED AFT/EVE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:27 pm

I am talking about the cold they will create Frank duh lol
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:29 pm

Put your faucets on drip Wednesday evening!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:25 pm

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4

You can see that the moderate snow will be falling south of us. Those areas will see 2+

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NWS has our area and NYC back in the 1-2 inch area. I dunno Frank winds look like they could gust to 35-45mph, NWS even calling for gusts I nthat range in their text forecast (I know it based on GFS).  But Euro shows strong winds too.  Its gonna be brutal.
Jman or shall I call you Windman!! If this is true then holy fn crips the wind chills will be in the negative teens

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_4

You can see that the moderate snow will be falling south of us. Those areas will see 2+


What a shame the south wins again!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:31 pm

Ace I'll take it we have had nothing
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:32 pm

Crazy, I know. We can't seem to win this winter. Let's see what radar looks like in the morning though. Maybe it comes north

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:33 pm

Clippers could be tricky little things

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:40 pm

What's the start time for the clipper
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:40 pm

Frank it will be nice to see a solid 1 to 2 inches like NWS is showing for my area right now. I will not ask for anything more. Would I love to see more, of course but doubt we gonna get it from this event. And yeah mugs, even gusts 30mph is gonna make that windchill -10 to -15 like franks scroll says. Stay in Thursday if you can and wed night.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:42 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the start time for the clipper

Start: 6-8am

End: 2-3pm

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank it will be nice to see a solid 1 to 2 inches like NWS is showing for my area right now.  I will not ask for anything more.  Would I love to see more, of course but doubt we gonna get it from this event.  And yeah mugs, even gusts 30mph is gonna make that windchill -10 to -15 like franks scroll says.  Stay in Thursday if you can and wed night.

Agree, and with the cold this week it should stick around

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:What's the start time for the clipper

Start: 6-8am

End: 2-3pm
Thanks Frank that's what I thought
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:04 pm

Looking at the radar and upper level winds looks to keep the precip over us and not so south... here's hoping

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Post by Math23x7 Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:01 am

The 5Z HRRR run suggests the snow continues beyond 3 PM (which is hr 15, as far as it goes). I'm heading to bed soon so I'll check the verification later this morning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:17 am

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Inxr1Kphla_h

Entering west NJ now, right on schedule.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:37 am

Looks like It will miss majority of nyc rush. Although it's nearing the area but much lighter looks than say central southern jersey.
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Post by amugs Tue Jan 06, 2015 7:39 am

Clipper System Tuesday 1/6, Frigid Temps. 1/7 - 1/9 - Page 2 Post-747-0-83034500-1420542937

Will it hold together??

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