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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb)

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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 04, 2015 8:44 am

Here is case study #2 Jan 19th.  The look is less than ideal for snow and cold lovers.  Again please keep comments here at a min but stay tuned.  And don't forget to read Case study number 1 as well Very Happy  
Euro, CMC and GFS Ensemble 500mb height anomaly and 850mb temp anomaly forecast for Jan19th.  I want everyone to pay special attention the 500mb height anomalies over Greenland.
Stay tuned for the evolution:  

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z511" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_t811" />

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en11" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Cmc_t811" />

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en11
" />Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gefs_t11" />

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Re: Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:06 am

Well here is the update on my second case study involving the global ensemble forecasts.  For the sake of time I am not including the 850mb temp anomalies ATT.  The images are of the 500mb height anomalies and the dates for the actual runs are as follows:

Jan 4th, Jan 10th, and Jan14th respectively

EURO
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z511" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z513" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z514" />

CMC
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en11" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en13" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gem-en14" />

GEFS
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en11
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en14" />
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Gfs-en13" />

If you remember my comments from the first blog about case study 2 above I said this: "  I want everyone to pay special attention the 500mb height anomalies over Greenland."  In looking at the evolution of the heights over greenland one should take notice that a link between higher heights in the north Atlantic and into Greenland is beginning to take shape.  The result:  look at whats trying to develop along the eastern seaboard, a trough.  And notice how there is now a ridge look developing in the west.  Neither a trough in the east or the ridge look in the west was showing up 4 days ago.  The other main point is the persistence of the Sub Aleutian trough.  That is back on the most recent runs and will cont to aid in the re-establishment of the -EPO moving forward.  

We are going to have to keep a close eye on the Sunday night into Monday time frame.  There may not be enough cold air available for this system but the operational models have all of a sudden been showing a little something brewing off the coast.  Will the ridge in the west cont to trend stronger?  Will enough blocking be established to slow things down enough for the ingredients to come together along the coast and can we generate cold enough air for frozen precip?  Remember this all maybe OTS.  In fact odds are still pointing in that direction for now.  But what should be quite clear is that the pattern continues to evolve in a positive way for frozen precip in the NE.

Recall the conversation CP and I had yesterday in the LR thread about the stats involving the rest of the winter.......  This was the quote from CP" If we take the period before February 1 the average in CPK is 13.9 inches of snow. If we use years where the snowfall during that period was 50% below normal or less than 7 inches there have been 45 such periods in the last 146 years."  I believe that convo will be for naught because I still believe based on the way I see things evolving that CPK will be above 7" of snow before Feb 1st.  
                               
 My next case study is for Jan25th.  Images are already saved but I don't have time this morning to post them, but stay tuned.


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:56 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Re: Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:40 am

From your lips to Gods ear.

Fascinating read as always.
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:15 am

Thanks sroc for taking the time to put this together. Besides the valuable information about the next week's weather, this really helps me understand how the rubber meets the road as far as tying the technical aspects of the forecest to the models and how everything is connected and evolves over time.
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Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Empty Re: Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb)

Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:33 am

@essexcountypete wrote:Thanks sroc for taking the time to put this together. Besides the valuable information about the next week's weather, this really helps me understand how the rubber meets the road as far as tying the technical aspects of the forecest to the models and how everything is connected and evolves over time.

You bet

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:38 am

From the look of those maps, surely slow but steady improvements. Let's hope it continues, cause we have a lot of catching up to do as far as snowfall is concerned. More important though is the QBO index. If that pacific jet doesn't ease up soon, our snow hopes will be dashed.
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Post by amugs Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:45 pm

Scott,

great analysis as always and the changes have been pretty big over the time frame - great work and keep it up - we are going to get something one of these winter days - hopefully sooner than later.

Mugs

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 17, 2015 7:17 am

Crazy..we went from this on Jan4th:

Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z511" />


To this on Jan17th:
Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) <a href=Ensemble Long Range Forecast Case Study #2 (500mb and 850mb) Eps_z515" />

That is all

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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