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Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:52 pm

Pfff lol, shows how tired I am, derrr
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 11, 2015 11:00 pm

i'm noticing that 00z models do not have any precip falling over our area until 14z or 9am. if precip starts at that time we will have very little fzr to worry about. looking at current radar (appr philly).looks like precip will start earlier unless it dries up before reaching us. dp are low so that is a possibility.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:03 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:I'm trying to find sources for temps at all levels for tomorrow, kinda like this site, since there are no soundings sites near me, all too far away, either LI or Albany that I could find. I think we are in trouble here in Bergen County in the A.M.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=06&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Hey Janet here is the site I use for soundings. You should be able to get soundings more specifically for your area using GFS, NAM, and RAP with this site.  Click the map over the area you want a sounding for.  Once it opens up the soundings forecast should see a small box with a google map in it and the area you prev clicked pinned(red with black dot in center) in the top right of the page.  You can zoom in or out as far as you want.  Then you can reposition your pin and click plot new sounding.  You can plot the sounding for your exact Lat/Long.  The Top left of the page you will be able to toggle through the specific forecast hr you want your soundings for as well.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:36 am

33°, there was freezing rain for a little while last night here about 2:45, mild out now

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:40 am

Little icy this morning out here but nothing too bad

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:40 am

Lots of delayed openings here in Bergen County, but looks like it wasn't necessary...

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by cooladi Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:08 am

Plain rain on Long Island all the way into downtown NYC. If it can't be snow, far better it be rain than ice! Very relieved commuter here.

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:16 am

busted forecast (which is good) by nws as we have had only .01" of precip. I mentioned last night that all models had no precip for our area until 9am. nws said precip should start by 5-6 am. radar did look good last night but dp were very low suggesting very dry air so precip never made it to ground even though there were good returns overhead. traffic is moving very well on hutch better than a normal day and much better than Friday when we needed the WWA. maybe NWS will get the next one right.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:31 am

raining now and 33*. can it get any worse than this!!!!
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Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:01 am

32.7, 84%, 30.37 F. There was freezing rain, icy spots up here.May still be freezing at this temp.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:25 am

I'll verify that Doc. I just did the three mile drive to the bus at Woodbury common. Side roads and driveway I could ice skate on. Woodbury common parking lot almost fell three times it was a sheet of ice. On the thruway now on my way to midtown and no problems.
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:26 am

Total bust. Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition A disaster for all forecasters.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:27 am

33* and freezing rain....hetting rough out there on sidewalks and walkways

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:35 am

syosnow94 wrote:Total bust.  Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition  A disaster for all forecasters.

On Long Island maybe but a skating rink north and west of the city.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:55 am

I had a tiny bit of slush on my wipers this morning g but I am glad we had no icing. I am looking at this lack of snow only in one positive way is that I am not breaking my back or struggling to find street parking among mounds of snow. But I do hope we see at least one good storm before the winter is out.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:12 am

Love how the radar over the last few hours shows the frozen precip/rain lines up so clearly with the topography in NNJ. The ridge lines are the dividing lines.

In Bloomfield, eastern Essex County, air temps we were just above freezing overnight. As I drove west up the hill into Verona, Montclair and West Orange there was lot more ice on side roads. Coworkers who live in Morris County and west are talking about the icy conditions on everything but the main roads.
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Post by Dtone Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:22 am

syosnow94 wrote:Total bust.  Unbelievable how literally nothing involving any kind of wintry precipitation that has been forecast this winter has come to fruition  A disaster for all forecasters.

The most pointless WWA in recent memory, temps have been several degrees above freezing since late morning yday. To the west and well north of NYC there is/was some ice though. So not a total bust for some.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:23 am

Icy conditions this morning on side roads, walks and driveways - skidded 2x in my town but the main roads are just wet. Parking lot here at school had a lot of icy spots as did the walks and they salted.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:00 am

Meh, I am not even going to call this a bust because I literally did not expect anything out of it. 850,925mb and surface were all too warm.

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:11 am

34* .10" of freezing rain....still very slippery here

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:59 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Meh, I am not even going to call this a bust because I literally did not expect anything out of it. 850,925mb and surface were all too warm.

Frank was to his credit pretty adamant at the get together of a non-winter event.

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Post by mako460 Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:16 pm

Dropped from 37 down to 34 in the last hour here, now some sleet mixing in. Thought the temps were supposed to rise.

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:23 pm

GFS, NAM, and HRR all have a changeover to snow tonight down to the coast as colder air gets wrapped in. In fact temps don't seem to be rising much out of the low to mid 30s so it won't take much of a drop I'm surface temps and usually those are the most stubborn and 850s are what cool the fastest in a departing low. Here is the HRRR snow accumulation map. Shows a coating to an inch.
Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 5 Image
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:13 pm

@aiannone wrote:GFS, NAM, and HRR all have a changeover to snow tonight down to the coast as colder air gets wrapped in. In fact temps don't seem to be rising much out of the low to mid 30s so it won't take much of a drop I'm surface temps and usually those are the most stubborn and 850s are what cool the fastest in a departing low. Here is the HRRR snow accumulation map. Shows a coating to an inch.
Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 5 Image

Better than nothing. Now change over faster and get that to 2 inches.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:44 pm

Alex,

Hi-res models last night began to show that. Will be interesting to see if anything comes out of it tonight.

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