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Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event----

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:26 pm

No I am not saying if its that cold on LI, then since I am inland from the city it will probably be even colder.
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Post by Sunflowers138 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:27 pm

What is the start time for this event?

I'm on Long Island and have to commute towards queens, so I'm trying to figure out what time to hit the road.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:28 pm

Last night it was 19 here around 9:30pm, the ground is cold but I hav not been out yet today, judging by how chilly it is in the apartment I imagine its still pretty cold outside.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:31 pm

The WAA for my area has been extended now from 3am to 1pm, with about 1 inch of snoe and 1/10th of a inch of ice. I dunno if I buy the snow part I think I agree with everyone else that this will be a inch event and wouldnt be surprised to see the snow lowered and the ice accretion to go up. Fran kearlier said precip moves in around 5 to 6am.
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:32 pm

@Sunflowers138 wrote:What is the start time for this event?

I'm on Long Island and have to commute towards queens, so I'm trying to figure out what time to hit the road.

Start time is 4-6am. Best to wait until 9-10am to commute if you can wait that long.
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Post by Sunflowers138 Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:33 pm

Can't wait that long since I have to be at work by 8.

I'll just pray for a slow, yet safe, commute.

Ugh.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 12:34 pm

@Sunflowers138 wrote:Can't wait that long since I have to be at work by 8.

I'll just pray for a slow, yet safe, commute.

Ugh.

They should be out treating the roads so just leave extra time and drive carefully. Hopefully the heavy traffic will keep the roads wet.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:24 pm

This looks like a marginal CAD setup at best, not too worried about roads as except in the worst of storms simple treating keeps them wet, may get a glaze on cold surfaces and untreated ones before rain melts it thats about it for around here.
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:24 pm

@aiannone wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Yep.  I don't care what the models or mets say.  It's been freezing cold for a week and wherever there is snow cover there will be freezing rain thru at least 9 or 10 a.m.  2 hour delay for schools here on LI most likely!
Wait. Where on Li are you?

Nassau Suffolk border north of LIE in Syosset.

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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:32 pm

Ohh wow I didn't know that. What train did u take back yesterday and what branch?
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:50 pm

@aiannone wrote:Ohh wow I didn't know that. What train did u take back yesterday and what branch?

If I'm not mistaken Alex, he went to Douglaston for the train.

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Post by Dtone Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:20 pm

Ugh its 37* outside. It was suppose to be in low 30s then rise later tonight. Not a good start.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:34 pm

Temp has been wavering between 35°-36° all afternoon. had a few peeks of sun, but still snow on the ground. Dreading tomorrow morning.

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
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Post by HeresL Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:37 pm

I'm still at 29 up here in the highlands!
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 4:44 pm

34 here
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Post by aiannone Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:23 pm

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 3 Image
Upton:
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SFC TEMPS WILL WARM AT A SLOWER RATE THAN MODELS
INDICATE...WHICH IS WHY MORE ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECASTS ESPECIALLY FOR ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES
WHERE UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE IS NOW FORECAST.

ALL FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MVG S THEN E OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO SLOW AND MIGHT CAUSE THE
PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING MONDAY
NIGHT BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT FROM W TO E.


Last edited by aiannone on Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:26 pm

@aiannone wrote:Ohh wow I didn't know that. What train did u take back yesterday and what branch?

I took the train to douglaston cause my wife was at my parents house nearby so she was picking me up. Otherwise I would have taken the Huntington branch.

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:42 pm

Temps starting to tank... down to 31° down 4° in the last hour

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:48 pm

Surface temps are expected to be above freezing at 7am tomorrow morning for NYC and LI. The solid white line is the 32* gradient. 

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 3 GfsNE_sfc_temp_018

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 5:50 pm

Then by 1pm, you can see the 32* gradient shoots up into central NY. Worst of the weather will be between 5-9am tomorrow. Be careful for slick roads. Some schools may be delayed. But by the late morning into afternoon we should be fine

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 3 GfsNE_sfc_temp_027

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:15 pm

Ok help me out here... are the lower green numbers on this graphic the temps at the 500 Mb level? for instance the -24 over NJ

Monday JANUARY 12th Overunning event---- - Page 3 Ua_50010

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:17 pm

Yes...ewww look how zonal it is across the country. No troughs or ridges anywhere. Completely flat

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:22 pm

I'm trying to find sources for temps at all levels for tomorrow, kinda like this site, since there are no soundings sites near me, all too far away, either LI or Albany that I could find. I think we are in trouble here in Bergen County in the A.M.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
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Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:28 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:I'm trying to find sources for temps at all levels for tomorrow, kinda like this site, since there are no soundings sites near me, all too far away, either LI or Albany that I could find. I think we are in trouble here in Bergen County in the A.M.

850mb, 925mb, and surface are the temps you need to worry about

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:29 pm

For 850/925, you want those below -1*C if you're looking for snow/ice.

Obviously surface you want below 32*F


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