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Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:58 am

If you have been following along you will know that I have not been enthused at all with this storm system. My belief has been that it will either be a weak surface low bringing some rain to the area or head out to sea. Yesterday models were out to sea with the system but today they are trending back west.

12z GFS

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

This is mainly rain for NYC Metro and points south and east, but area north and west have to keep an eye out. While there probably is rain to start, I think once the column starts cooling you could see a changeover to snow. This is the latest GFS verbatim and it brings a CRAZY amount of rainfall to the area in a short period of time. I have to look at soundings to know if there is any changeover to snow, even for the coast.

00z EURO

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

Not as impressive with the rain, but the general idea is still there. You notice that surface temps are very warm for pretty much everyone and that is because of a surface low near the Great Lakes raising heights along the coast. Wind directions are not in our favor with this storm.

I'll keep a close eye out today

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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:08 am

The models are doing a cha cha with this event. Now all of the models have this right over NYC. Looks like a rainy sunday ahead.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:25 am

Damn Frank tat is some insane rain, is that headed for where I will be too near New Haven CT? Wxbell slow, not loaded yet I am curious to see exactly how much rain it has. And if any snow N/W, I do not see how there would be snow at the coast especially over Southern CT. I swear if there is snow in southern WC and I am in CT I will be so pissed lol
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:27 am

I just looked at tropical tidbits map, 999mb right over CT eastern LI, this could be a wind and rain event for me over in CT, looks like some possible back end snow in CT verbatim.  Def looking interesting, was agreeing with Frank on a non event here, did not see the GFS come back like this.  And Euro has held strong, If GFS and Euro verify this is a great stride for new GFS.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:32 am

Euro did not really hold strong. Yesterday at 12z it was also well east and had very little rain for the area. Last night at 00z it came back west a bit. Now today the GFS is coming back west. They both lost this system yesterday at one point. But so far today there seems to be a complete turn around

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:36 am

YES!! rain on the weekend in January.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:41 am

syosnow94 wrote:YES!! rain on the weekend in January.

Yes but its a cold rain!!! cheers

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Post by Quietace Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:01 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:YES!! rain on the weekend in January.

Yes but its a cold rain!!! cheers
With all this precipitation especially the rain, the lawns should look pretty good once spring rolls around.....just looking at the positives Wink

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:26 pm

Starting to look like parts of the HV could squeak some snow out of this maybe even moderate amounts in places.

Now that I've said it I'm sure it will rain or be dry.
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:45 pm

I had this in the wrong forum.

No sarcasm here just confusion.

So Sunday night and Monday is rain and much stronger than anticipated, which will then work to inhibit our chances for the 21st. AND the threat of a biggie late next week now is significantly less than it was 12 hours ago? Sounds about par for the course this year.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:49 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I had this in the wrong forum.

No sarcasm here just confusion.

So Sunday night and Monday is rain and much stronger than anticipated, which will then work to inhibit our chances for the 21st. AND the threat of a biggie late next week now is significantly less than it was 12 hours ago? Sounds about par for the course this year.

Who said anything about the event next weekend being "less" likely?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:52 pm

12z JMA is a washout for Sunday

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR

2-3 inches of rain possible.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:03 pm

12z EURO

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:06 pm

Almost identical to GFS, well they said improvements were towards Euro stature. Your right Frank yesterday Euro did head east.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:09 pm

Was checking out why models suddenly brought this storm back west, namely the GFS, and the blocking looks to have gotten stronger in my opinion.

Sunday, January 18th Rain Storm Gfs_z500a_namer_12

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:39 pm

That's a good thing for the future storms in the 10 day right?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:49 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:That's a good thing for the future storms in the 10 day right?

Jman I pretty sure no one is going to say anything about the 10day

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:26 pm

Well I mean going forward in terms of blocking setting up that's what u all talk about a lot so I assume its a good thing.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Well I mean going forward in terms of blocking setting up that's what u all talk about a lot so I assume its a good thing.

Sorry I didn't mean to be so blunt. Yeah blocking for the 25th ish would of course be great; however, I think since we are just now starting to see the NAO into the neutral to neg zone until its there and stays there it still may be only temporary. It doesn't have to be perfect though for a big storm.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:12 pm

Any guesses on snowfall potential, if any, for HV Sunday night. Latest track looks to close to the coast IMO for anyone other than Catskills far west HV, and far NW Jersey.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:17 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Any guesses on snowfall potential, if any, for HV Sunday night. Latest track looks to close to the coast IMO for anyone other than Catskills far west HV, and far NW Jersey.

Thinking none right now. Surface looks way too warm with a southerly wind.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:31 pm

Useless 18z NAM has this storm further east

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:36 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Any guesses on snowfall potential, if any, for HV Sunday night. Latest track looks to close to the coast IMO for anyone other than Catskills far west HV, and far NW Jersey.

Thinking none right now. Surface looks way too warm with a southerly wind.

Sounds about right Frank. I wouldn't have it any other way this winter.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:37 pm

The 0Z RGEM suggests freezing rain Sunday morning before changing over the plain (heavy) rain.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:57 pm

Michael that's interesting. Precip would have to move in much earlier than expected though. Will be interesting if RGEM still shows this tomorrow.

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