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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:57 pm

GEFS really are nice. The setup @ H5 shows some east-based blocking near the Barents Sea and Scandanavia. Classic trough/ridge setup in the Pac. over the Aleutians and western US. We're getting there...

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 17, 2015 7:46 pm

Ahh frank didn't look at the gefs.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:07 pm

The pattern is screaming for at least a MECS.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:51 pm

I recall hearing this before this year, any reason to believe it will be any different? I really can't get my hopes up anymore, I respect you and Franks analysis but nothing ever seems to pan out. I did see a phase try to occur on GFS around 27th or so but thats so far out and you always tell me thats way to far out, I hope you are right this time, what does a mecs equate to a foot (so basically a godzilla or more ur saying)?
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I recall hearing this before this year, any reason to believe it will be any different?  I really can't get my hopes up anymore, I respect you and Franks analysis but nothing ever seems to pan out.  I did see a phase try to occur on GFS around 27th or so but thats so far out and you always tell me thats way to far out, I hope you are right this time, what does a mecs equate to a foot (so basically a godzilla or more ur saying)?

DT uses the terms SECS (significant east coast snowstorm) MECS (major east coast snowstorm) and HECS (historic east coast snowstorm) a lot when talking about east coast snowstorms. The criteria for those terms depends on where you live. I met him last July and discussed them and here is my thinking on them in terms of snowfall.

Richmond, VA: 2", 4", 8"
Washington DC: 3", 6", 12"
Baltimore, MD: 4", 8", 14"
Philadelphia, PA: 6", 12", 18"
Central Park, NY: 6", 12", 18"
Boston MA: 8", 16", 24"

OF course it's subjective, but that is just a guide to the terms. As many of us know, "Godzilla" = 12"+ , "Roidzilla" = 24"+ , and "Frankzilla" = 36"+ .

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:10 pm

Yeah I knew what they stood for just was curious if there was a snow total criteria, so sweet IF something happens hoping for that 12 but at this point i'll take 6, 18-24 would besuper sweet but i won't count my dollars on that one. : )
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 17, 2015 10:18 pm

I'm still wanting to see if we actually get a plowable snow nothing set in stone here . And I want to see if we lock into this pattern
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:57 pm

0z GGEM is really nice for the clipper

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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 2vkgw2r
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:09 am

Jeeze the clipper drops a solid 6-12 across S and W (some of you probably get into some of that), I will be so pissed if that happens, if thats the intensity I hope it trends north just a bit!
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:15 am

If this ain't a punch in the face for most if not all of us I dunno what is!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Cmc_sn10
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:20 am

Oh sweet baby please con west, plenty of cold to work with there looks like, that could be our mecs or dare I say HECS! But it is the CMC alas.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Cmc_pr10

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:24 am

hey jman just checked 00z models and oh boy they look much better esp for wens. looks like frank and scott are right that pattern is ripe for storms.
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Gfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Gfs_namer_234_10m_wnd_precip
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:28 am

gfs snow map for wens....
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:29 am

@jmanley32 wrote:If this ain't a punch in the face for most if not all of us I dunno what is!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Cmc_sn10

It's only a punch in the face if it actually happens, which of course it won't, for us or for them.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:33 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh sweet baby please con west, plenty of cold to work with there looks like, that could be our mecs or dare I say HECS! But it is the CMC alas.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Cmc_pr10

Wow! That would of been a full fledged blizzard if it took the BM route. Just glanced at the 00z GFS run. Even though it showed an OTS solution, the storm was much more organized; overall good trends. One storm at a time. Our clipper seems to be slowing up/getting stronger. Could be feeling the effects of a possible transient block.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:34 am

Al thats so odd, that TT snowfall is so different than wxbells. wxbell shows no for our area and east and the map you posted shows 6+. We will see what happens I guess.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:39 am

THE PATTERN GOING FORWARD SCREAMS POTENTIAL AND IF YOU WERE AT THE G2G YOU WOULD KNOW MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS. BLOG TOMORROW.

GET PUMPED

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:42 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Al thats so odd, that TT snowfall is so different than wxbells.  wxbell shows no for our area and east and the map you posted shows 6+.  We will see what happens I guess.
the gfs has surface temps in the mid-upp 30's for parts of the area so verbatim it would either be a mix or hard to stick however 850's are -4 to -5* with a ne wind and a low south of us it would in all likelihood be acc snow. so do not look at temp profiles just yet the models will adjust.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:45 am

10/4 Frank! Looking like 24th time frame could be our time, GFS and CMC show a system although OTS now, lets get tomorrow out, hoping for SOME snow on Wed, then bring on the monster(s). Bold print, I am so wanting to get pumped but will hold back until after your blog.
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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:47 am

wens clipper has a lot of potential. good to see it slow down. very good chance to turn the corner and give snow from dc to boston.
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 5 Gfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht
look at that ridge in the west and how it builds in just 24 hours and plenty of sw energy digging. looks great!
plus sundays storm acts as a 50/50 block as sroc would say GIGGEDY!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:53 am

Clipper has its own thread.

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:35 am

Shouldn't this thread now be 6.0?

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:11 am

@Math23x7 wrote:Shouldn't this thread now be 6.0?

You are correct sir

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Guest Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:16 am

FRANK WHERE'S THE BLOG? I AM PUMPED!!!!

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Post by algae888 Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:58 am

todays 12z gfs has wave after wave moving off the coast and intensifying in the next ten days. however all of them at this moment miss us. a lot of potential but the way this winter is going would not be surprised if they all miss.
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