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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:21 pm

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f117

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f120

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f123

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:45 pm

@algae888 wrote:so the gfs has caved to euro. so much for the new look. last night gfs had nada for most of nyc metro and was very dry on previous runs while euro has been consistent for days no with about an inch of rain(18th). so now we hope euro is right for wens. storm as it showed several inches off snow for us and gfs has a rain snow mix (12z today). what will probably happen is that euro is wrong for this system (21st) and gfs is right. it's how are winter has been going so far. and for the 23rd storm gfs now has low exiting central fla. coast. the writing is on the wall the white flag is in my hand let spring begin.

I think this: GFS 12z operational vs Ensemble.  Someone is wrong.  A post by JB today
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Gfs_z510" />
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Gefs_z10" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:50 pm

That's a big 10/4 on that one can't argue there!
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:51 pm

Euro looks to be a hit around 24/25th, wxbell still coming in.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:56 pm

More like a graze but much further north than past runs, no sense in putting much into this yet though, two events that will inevitably effect this one in some way shape or forms track.
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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:00 pm

well I take back the white flag.lol as the euro is much different than the GFS. euro has support from other models. the GFS looks like it could be struggling with the ridge out West over amplifying it and suppressing everything to the south with one northern stream energy after another coming through.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:08 pm

@algae888 wrote:well I take back the white flag.lol as the euro is much different than the GFS. euro has support from other models. the GFS looks like it could be struggling with the ridge out West over amplifying it and suppressing everything to the south with one northern stream energy after another coming through.

Al come down off that ledge and well talk about it. Its not worth it man..lol Just kidding. What the image above tells me is that the avg of 25 individual runs 240hrs out (or how ever many the GFS has in its ens) strongly supports the ridge in the west and the trough in the east when compared to one run on the operational...a model that seems to flip flop as much as a blue fish on the deck of my boat in August.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by amugs Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:50 pm

The dam Sunday storm is exploding up over Newfoundland and not giving the Clipper room to amplify into something bigger - IF we can get this storm to get the h up another 100 miles + or more then the clipper should have a bit more room to bring us the goods. Just looking at models as I write and there is plenty of time with this - if not we get a couple of inches and these little weasels overproduce this time of year so a 1-3" maybe in order - LI may do better towards the 3" range.


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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:07 pm

Madonne on the Euro ensemble control but that does not appear to be in a good position for snow, but is that deep enough for it to produce its own cold? Euro snow ensembles still have about half with a good dumping of snow ( a few with a insane amount of snow) from now till 25/26th, way too far off but still this image is crazy and just had to post it.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Eps_sl10
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:46 pm

When the GEFS and EPS agree in the LR, I feel there is not much to be concerned about and everything we talked about will eventually come to fruition.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:06 pm

U putting ur blog about late week sat or sun? We talked about a lot lol not sure what exactly u are referencing.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:10 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:When the GEFS and EPS agree in the LR, I feel there is not much to be concerned about and everything we talked about will eventually come to fruition.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:53 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:When the GEFS and EPS agree in the LR, I feel there is not much to be concerned about and everything we talked about will eventually come to fruition.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10

Das Perty

Haha, yes. But notice the NAO region. Still positive. I can care less at this point. We can work with blocking in the Pacific

@Jman- Sunday morning

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Post by algae888 Fri Jan 16, 2015 7:05 pm

from cpc 6-10 outlook...

TODAY'S OUTLOOK IS SOMEWHAT LESS CERTAIN THAN EVEN YESTERDAY'S LOW-CONFIDENCE  
FORECAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD TOWARD THE ECMWF  
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF THE LONGITUDINAL CENTER OF THE RIDGE  
FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND, WHICH GIVES THE  
ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN SYSTEMS EACH A SUBSTANTIAL WEIGHT, INDICATES THAT THE  
RIDGE WILL LACK THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE RESULT IS MORE  
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SOURCE REGION FOR AIR MASSES THAT ARE EXPECTED  
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS IN TURN HAS LED TO A GENERAL SHIFTING OF  
PROBABILITIES TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION, BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY SO.
SOMEWHAT  
SURPRISINGLY, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHWARD EXCURSION OF THOSE  
AIR MASSES WILL BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO YIELD COLDER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

THE ODDS OF AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK DURING THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ARE  
REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE LATEST (12Z) DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS,  
CANADIAN, AND UKMET, ALL HINT AT A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH LITTLE  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
HOWEVER, WE MUST BE CAUTIOUS NOT  
TO JUMP ON BOARD ANY PARTICULAR SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT.  
THE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDUCES ENOUGH  
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THE WETTER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS IN THE TIME-AVERAGED  
OUTLOOK.
so it's the euro against all the other models as far as precip is concerned in the 6-10 day time frame.
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Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:When the GEFS and EPS agree in the LR, I feel there is not much to be concerned about and everything we talked about will eventually come to fruition.

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10

Das Perty

Haha, yes. But notice the NAO region. Still positive. I can care less at this point. We can work with blocking in the Pacific

@Jman- Sunday morning

Ahhh verbatim yes. But as we have seen all month these ensembles evolve. We shall see how this one does. We can still def work with this anyway.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:36 pm

What do you sroc and Frank think about what Al posted? Doesn't sound good to me. And BTW WOW with the front blast, winds were howling, dying off now.
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:43 pm

DT (regardless of what you think of him) posted this in regards to the Arctic Oscillation today. That being said, it is amazing that the GFS showed just a couple of days ago a super-negative AO, below -3. Now by late next week it's positive again. How is it that what models show 6-10 days out struggle to come to fruition?

By the way, this thread has over a thousand posts. 6.0 Thread anyone?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:54 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:DT (regardless of what you think of him) posted this in regards to the Arctic Oscillation today.  That being said, it is amazing that the GFS showed just a couple of days ago a super-negative AO, below -3.  Now by late next week it's positive again.  How is it that what models show 6-10 days out struggle to come to fruition?

By the way, this thread has over a thousand posts.  6.0 Thread anyone?

Sunday when blog is out Smile

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:01 pm

So I guess what's going on is the models are struggling with the new pattern or is it not looking promising as it was a day ago
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:02 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So I guess what's going on is the models are struggling with the new pattern or is it not looking promising as it was a day ago

Struggling

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:19 pm

So models struggling Frank is that a positive thing. Meaning the models aren't picking up on it
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:45 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So models struggling Frank is that a positive thing. Meaning the models aren't picking up on it
After our Sunday rainstorm, yes the overall pattern will become more favorable for snow, with a clipper on wednesday, followed by a possible significant event late next week. Long range models are very volatile right now, so it remains to be seen if this pattern locks in long term, or is transient.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:46 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:So models struggling Frank is that a positive thing. Meaning the models aren't picking up on it
After our Sunday rainstorm, yes the overall pattern will become more favorable for snow, with a clipper on wednesday, followed by a possible significant event late next week. Long range models are very volatile right now, so it remains to be seen if this pattern locks in long term, or is transient.

Couldn't say it better myself.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:59 pm

Thinking about driving up to my parents house in Olivebridge, NY. North Central Ulster county for Sunday night Monday storm. What do you guys think are my chances for 6+ there. By the way we got 41 inches there during the 1993 "superstorm"

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:09 pm

As has been the case this winter, whenever a potential storm shows up with an amped up ridge out west in the LR, as we draw closer to the event, the storm weakens when the ridge collapses and flattens out. That's the main feature I'll be watching for the potential big ticket event late next week. If that western ridge holds up, we'll be in business. Like Frank said, the models can't handle the impending pattern change. I think once Sunday's event passes through, the models will start to settle down. Until then, expect to see some wild swings. I think this storm could finally deliver us the goods, but the way this winter has gone, I won't bet the mortgage on it just yet.
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