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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:pete TWC, weatherunderground and  accuwx all go by the same txt if you look and its all derived from the GFS.
+1 absolutely true

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:32 pm

Sunday to Monday looks good as per euro - cold HP in SE Canada -1038-1040 and LP sliding from west like Saturdays storm. great look this far out.

Grading can wait when the euro runs!
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f126
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f129
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f132
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f135Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f141

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:34 pm

Wow Euro kind looks carbon copy to yesterday with track and general set up

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:43 pm

sroc4 wrote:Wow Euro kind looks carbon copy to yesterday with track and general set up

Set up somewhat different though - bigger hp to the north if not mistaken and less phasing a barclonic set up where the lp rides the barclonic line - hey it can happen like yesterday but it that big hp and east based NAO will help slow this down - it snows in the area from 129 -144 - mostly overrunning - got to love those since we did not have to worry so much about timing and phasing imo. Ideas. IF the mid level warm lie yesterday then we have one frickin' huge ice storm as a possibility but I do not see that right now - 6+" storm from CNJ North

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:45 pm

Next Wed Thursday coastal - nice position at this time - good potential - PNA ridge pumping

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f180

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:48 pm

I hope it's not like yesterday for me with rain come on
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:15 pm

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Wow Euro kind looks carbon copy to yesterday with track and general set up

Set up somewhat different though - bigger hp to the north if not mistaken and less phasing a barclonic set up where the lp rides the barclonic line - hey it can happen like yesterday but it that big hp and east based NAO will help slow this down - it snows in the area from 129 -144 - mostly overrunning - got to love those since we did not have to worry so much about timing and phasing imo. Ideas. IF the mid level warm lie yesterday then we have one frickin' huge ice storm  as a possibility but I do not see that right now - 6+" storm from CNJ North

HP is currently being modeled stronger than yesterday's storm but its too our north all the same.   But if you recall yesterdays system was all Northern stream until about the 28th when the GGEM showed us the first phased soln with an energy transfer to the coast.  If you look at the H5 vort maps there are two pieces of energy coming onto the western shores.  First one around hr 90-96.  As piece one heads into the nations midsection the second one arrives on shore right on its heals around hr 108 ish.  As the second one comes on shore the Ridge begins to amplify behind them.  By hr 132 there is a ton of energy over the conus, and a 3rd piece diving in down out of the Hudson bay too.  There is a ton of energy over the country by hr 120 (Sunday 6z) none of which is onshore right now.  We are going to have to see how the models continue to handle it all.  This sucker has a long way to go.


Last edited by sroc4 on Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:17 pm

Thanks for the analysis Doc - one day I will get to that plateau!!

Talk about long way to go - PD Part 3. Euro has it too but can't get CONUS map to post. OH BOY. H% set up is very exciting for the next 2 weeks time frame IMO on both models.

This would be insane snowfall ratios - I mean 22:1 to 30:1 - if you look at the cold air associated with this.

12Z GFS - Sund 2-15
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f276

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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:23 pm

amugs wrote:Thanks for the analysis Doc - one day I will get to that plateau!!

Talk about long way to go - PD Part 3. Euro has it too but can't get CONUS map to post. OH BOY. H% set up is very exciting for the next 2 weeks time frame IMO on both models.

This would be insane snowfall ratios - I mean 22:1 to 30:1 - if you look at the cold air associated with this.

12Z GFS - Sund 2-15
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f276

Looks like the end of the Euro run wants to do something epic for the same time frame.
[img]Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 Ecmwf_32[/img]

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:25 pm

The GFS CMC EURO all have Monday' storm - NICE!!! If you are HECS searching I do not think this will be the one but definitely MECS material. Next Sunday - PD storm has HECS written all over it


Last edited by amugs on Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:26 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Thanks for the analysis Doc - one day I will get to that plateau!!

Talk about long way to go - PD Part 3. Euro has it too but can't get CONUS map to post. OH BOY. H% set up is very exciting for the next 2 weeks time frame IMO on both models.

This would be insane snowfall ratios - I mean 22:1 to 30:1 - if you look at the cold air associated with this.

12Z GFS - Sund 2-15
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f276

Looks like the end of the Euro run wants to do something epic for the same time frame.  
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 Ecmwf_32" />

YESSSSSSSSSS!! That was what I was referring to DOC - thank for posting - it has been 12 years since the last one 2003 - and before that was 1978 - math, cp am I correct in this statement?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:54 pm

sroc, I am not too savy with those maps, what are they showing, and 276 hrs? Come on aren't you guys the one that always rolled your eyes at me for looking so far out lol, heres hoping, if we are going to get it lets go for the big mama. mugs you said ice storm Monday? Look at this past storm called for 1/2 of ice didn't verify, which was a good thing but it just doesn't happen I am learning, not here anyways, I guess there is a first for everything though.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:57 pm

Cripes! A double barrel monster, look at those isobars, hurricane winds and snow, bring that east and that's a BECS! Wayyyy to far off though, but hey Frank did mention middle of the month, bingo, by the day, this kid has really got it!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 12z_gf10
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:sroc, I am not too savy with those maps, what are they showing, and 276 hrs? Come on aren't you guys the one that always rolled your eyes at me for looking so far out lol, heres hoping, if we are going to get it lets go for the big mama.  mugs you said ice storm Monday? Look at this past storm called for 1/2 of ice didn't verify, which was a good thing but it just doesn't happen I am learning, not here anyways, I guess there is a first for everything though.

There was no detailed analysis in that post regarding it. All I mentioned was the set up would show somethiong epic. That GFS you just posted..if euro went that far it would look similar. Dont take it any further than that for now. But that time frame looks to have an epic potential given the overall general H5 set up. That is all

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:09 pm

I was just joshin around too, yeah I dunno but I will take your expert word for it, that would be epic if that was west.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:12 pm

Euro ensembles do not agree on Monday but there is def a lot of outcomes for 6+ MAYBE EVEN 10+!
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:15 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:sroc, I am not too savy with those maps, what are they showing, and 276 hrs? Come on aren't you guys the one that always rolled your eyes at me for looking so far out lol, heres hoping, if we are going to get it lets go for the big mama.  mugs you said ice storm Monday? Look at this past storm called for 1/2 of ice didn't verify, which was a good thing but it just doesn't happen I am learning, not here anyways, I guess there is a first for everything though.

There was no detailed analysis in that post regarding it.  All I mentioned was the set up would show somethiong epic.  That GFS you just posted..if euro went that far it would look similar.  Dont take it any further than that for now.  But that time frame looks to have an epic potential given the overall general H5 set up.  That is all

I know its way too far off to be of any excitement yet however the blizzard for 2015 was supposed to be epic for NYC, would there be reason to believe that the possibility of a more favorable setup would be there? I know no analysis can be done just curious, epic is a big word and even if its a possibility it peaks interest.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:19 pm

Going into the middle of next week some of the Euro snow maps of the 50 ensembles have a MECS even HECS, so it looks like anything from a secs to a HECS is on the table, the biggest being the not as highly likely but man some of the totals are crazy. 22 to be exact have around 10 inches plus, some wayyyy plus. 6 or 7 have roid or higher written all over then, yeah its only 14% but shoot I have gambled at higher odds lol.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:sroc, I am not too savy with those maps, what are they showing, and 276 hrs? Come on aren't you guys the one that always rolled your eyes at me for looking so far out lol, heres hoping, if we are going to get it lets go for the big mama.  mugs you said ice storm Monday? Look at this past storm called for 1/2 of ice didn't verify, which was a good thing but it just doesn't happen I am learning, not here anyways, I guess there is a first for everything though.

There was no detailed analysis in that post regarding it.  All I mentioned was the set up would show somethiong epic.  That GFS you just posted..if euro went that far it would look similar.  Dont take it any further than that for now.  But that time frame looks to have an epic potential given the overall general H5 set up.  That is all

I know its way too far off to be of any excitement yet however the blizzard for 2015 was supposed to be epic for NYC, would there be reason to believe that the possibility of a more favorable setup would be there?  I know no analysis can be done just curious, epic is a big word and even if its a possibility it peaks interest.

The set up for the blizzard of 2015 worked out perfectly..just not in your back yard. East end of LI saw 25-30" and Up and down Boston saw the same. Its track was only off by 50-100miles where everyones back yard was happy. This set up looks great. To look at the surface maps for that system are just for Ships and giggles. If you see a track east west or perfect you have ignore it. Only look at the 500mb maps for now

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:56 pm

Ok sroc but just for those s & giggles looie at this! Heh wow, imagine!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 Euro_e11
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:41 pm

giggidy!

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Post by amugs Tue Feb 03, 2015 4:48 pm

Holy Mother of Cold if it verifies my god we break records like disco night in the late 70's at the ild Chicago White Sox Stadium Comisky Park!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 Gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65(71)

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:07 pm

amugs wrote:Holy Mother of Cold if it verifies my god we break records like disco night in the late 70's at the ild Chicago White Sox Stadium Comisky Park!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 21 Gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65(71)

Excellent reference. Nothing ever deserved the smashing of records more than disco. Well maybe some rap songs too but I show my age there.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:40 pm

U mm what is that in f? Yikes.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:43 pm

Wow..now THATS cold
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:43 pm

But in all seriousness for euro to be sniffing out such a huge lp this far out tells me we are gonna b in for it. What is it about Monday storms this year?
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 03, 2015 6:06 pm

Of late this has been the season of Manic Mondays weather wise. Must just be the pattern we're in. (ok this musical reference is not as good as the disco night reference). In all seriousness though, we do occasionally get into these types of cyclical patterns over a month where storms show up around the same time each week. Which makes me want to watch both of these projected Monday events in the next two weeks closely.
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